The tale of Devlin Hodges, the Saint Vincent camp arm turned starting QB and cult hero, took a somber but not exactly unexpected turn this past Sunday night. With the Steelers seemingly determined to try and beat the Bills' elite secondary (Pittsburgh attempted 38 passes, tied for third-most in a game this season), Hodges' limitations were exposed. Mike Tomlin has already confirmed that Hodges will have a chance to redeem himself against the Jets this upcoming week, but there was at least some discussion of re-inserting Mason Rudolph as the starter.
A larger, and more concerning question: Would it matter?
You can make the case that Hodges is still the better option. But whether Duck or Rudolph is on the field, the Steelers are left relying on dink-and-dunk passes and praying that a turnover-hungry defense can generate points on its own.
Leading up to Week 15, Hodges was shockingly good for an undrafted FCS quarterback who got a $1,000 signing bonus and didn't crack the initial roster. In five appearances (three starts, two relief outings), Hodges completed 57 out of 80 passes for 682 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions. His passer rating was a pristine 103.2. As we covered in last week's Stats, you could make the case that no undrafted rookie had ever been so good.
And then, Week 15. Taking on a Buffalo defense that has surrendered the third-fewest passing yards per game, Hodges was 23 of 38 for 202 yards, one TD and four picks. The duck hunter became the duck hunted, with Hodges posting one of the worst passer ratings we've seen in 2019 among QBs with 30+ attempts in a game:
Hodges' shortcomings became apparent when the Steelers tried to push the ball down the field. On passes within ten yards of the line of scrimmage, Hodges was 19 of 27 for 96 yards and a TD, per NFL Next Gen Stats. But on passes ten-plus yards downfield, he was four for 11 for 106 yards and four INTs.
While Hodges had managed to play reasonably well before the Buffalo game, the struggles on longer passes were nothing new. About a quarter of Hodges' passing attempts this year have been thrown ten-plus yards downfield. Overall, he has a 40 percent completion rate on those passes with one TD and six INTs.
If those bleak stats sound familiar, it's because Rudolph has also been wretched on longer passing plays this year.
And that's the crux of it for the 2019 Steelers. With Hodges or Rudolph at the helm, the team's offense has functioned--or, more accurately, not functioned--the same way. With a smorgasbord of other position player injuries and an offensive line that's no longer a fortress, Pittsburgh is limited to short, low-upside passing plays. When they go downfield, the results have been catastrophic.
Is Tomlin making the right call in sticking with Hodges?
Despite his disastrous game versus the Bills, Hodges has still been better than Rudolph in some respects. He's averaging 7.5 yards per passing attempt, compared to 6.2 for Rudolph. He also has a lower bad throw percentage (19.3 percent for Hodges, 20.9 percent for Rudolph), according to Pro Football Reference's advanced stats. Bad throws are those categorized as uncatchable by Sportradar game charters. Football Outsiders says that Hodges has been +1.5 percent better than an average NFL QB on a per-pass basis once you account for game situations and the quality of competition, compared to -23.2 percent for Rudolph.
At this point, Hodges may be the least bad option. But there's no disputing the notion that this might be the worst Steelers offense we have seen since Chuck Noll still patrolled the sidelines. Pittsburgh has been -18.3 percent worse than an average NFL offense on a per-play basis in 2019, according to Football Outsiders. That's 30th in the league. The only time that they have been worse dating back to the mid-80s (when Football Outsiders' advanced stats begin) was 1987, when the Steelers were -21.3 percent below average. No matter who's the QB, the path to the playoffs won't be found by chucking bombs downfield.
MORE STEELERS
• Team turnover: While the Steelers’ vaunted defense is busy forcing turnovers at an NFL-best clip (20.6 percent of opponent drives), the team’s feeble offense seems determined to undo the D’s handiwork. Pittsburgh’s offense has coughed up the ball on 16 percent of drives this season, which is the fifth-highest rate in the game ahead of only the Giants (19.5 percent), Chargers (19 percent), Buccaneers (18.5 percent) and Bengals (16.9 percent). The Steelers have thrown 17 total interceptions this year (tied for third-most in the NFL) while also losing nine fumbles (11th-most). With a gaffe-prone offense undercutting an elite and opportunistic defense, the Steelers rank a good-not-great +9 in turnover differential in 2029 (seventh in the league).
• Odds are: The Steelers squandered a chance to take a larger lead in the race for an AFC Wild Card spot. But, with the Titans also losing in Week 15—not to mention the Browns, Raiders and Colts also falling into the abyss—their playoff hopes are still alive. Pittsburgh has about a 38 percent chance of making the postseason, according to Football Outsiders. That’s down considerably from their odds entering Week 15 (about 60 percent). However, those projections think that the Steelers will take on the Jets (5-9) in Week 16 followed by a full-strength Ravens (12-2) squad in Week 17. If Baltimore chooses to rest Lamar Jackson and company against Pittsburgh, the Steelers playoff odds could spike. The Titans, meanwhile, are thought to have better playoff chance (62 percent) but have tough games left versus the 11-3 Saints and at the 9-5 Texans. This battle for the AFC’s sixth seed is likely more of a toss-up than those playoff odds would suggest.
MORE PENGUINS
• Jarry's run: Even when you consider how well the Penguins are playing defensively as a team, Tristan Jarry is still playing out of his mind. The Corsica Hockey website keeps track of expected save percentage, which is calculated based on the shot difficulty that a goalie faces. Net minders who are facing benign shots from far away have a higher expected save rate than, say, a goalie who frequently confronts odd-man rushes and lethal shots from near the crease. Jarry's expected save rate during five-on-five play (.934) is the third-highest among all NHL goalies with 500+ minutes of even-strength ice time. So, he's seeing comparatively easy shots. But, Jarry still boasts a much higher actual save percentage at even strength (.960). He has the highest positive differential between his actual and expected save rate, meaning he's stopping far more pucks than an average goalie even when you adjust for shot difficulty. The Penguins are making Jarry's life easier, but he's also performing at an All-Star level.
• Jake's just good: In case you needed confirmation that Jake Guentzel is a star no matter who he skates with, his performance with Sidney Crosby out of the lineup should do the trick. Guentzel has actually helped the Penguins generate a greater share of the game's total five-on-five shot attempts, scoring chances and goals while skating without Crosby than with the captain, according to Natural Stat Trick (56.3 percent of total shots with Sid and 56.6 percent without, 54.6 percent of scoring chances with Sid and 57.8 percent without, and 52 percent of goals with Sid and 62.1 percent without). Guentzel has yet again raised his points per game total, to a career-best 1.09, and he will soon surpass 100 career goals. When he does that, he'll join Mario Lemieux, Jaromir Jagr, Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Mike Bullard, Greg Malone, Doug Shedden, Jordan Staal, Pierre Larouche, Rob Brown, Dan Quinn and Mark Recchi as the only Penguins to score 100+ goals by their age-25 season.
• Death to offense: When he's able to deploy it, Mike Sullivan's bottom-six line of Teddy Blueger, Zach Aston-Reese and Brandon Tanev is downright suffocating defensively. With those three on the ice, the Penguins are allowing just 23.8 shots, 14.2 scoring chances and 0.9 goals per 60 minutes of even-strength play. For comparison's sake, the Penguins overall are giving up 27.7 shots, 22.1 scoring chances and 2.2 goals against per 60 minutes at even strength in 2019-20. Tanev and Blueger are also drawing a team-low 0.15 penalties per 60 minutes of ice time, so they're badgering opponents without ending up in the box. You can definitely win with a bottom line like this.
PIRATES
• Frazier’s value: Why are the Pirates reportedly getting lots of trade interest in second baseman Adam Frazier? He’s in his prime (he just turned 28), he’s under team control for three more seasons, and his combination of high-contact hitting and surprisingly good defense makes him a decent—and inexpensive—starter. Frazier is expected to make about $3.2 million through salary arbitration next season, according to projections on MLB Trade Rumors. Frazier has established himself as about a two win above replacement (WAR) player, which is around league-average starter. WAR measures a player’s total offensive, defensive and base running value compared to a fringe major leaguer. Two wins is worth around north of $10 million on the free agent market, based on historical precedent. So Frazier’s a relative bargain—and one that could come with some upside if teams think they can help him rediscover his power stroke from 2018, when his bat was 16 percent better than the overall MLB average (compared to three percent below average in 2019).
• Home run king: Even in this era of unprecedented home run power, Hector Noesi stands out—just not in a good way. The 32-year-old righty, recently signed to a minor league deal by the Pirates, has coughed up the 18th-highest rate of home runs per nine innings pitched (1.53) in MLB history among those with at least 400 career innings. The former Yankee, Mariner, Kia Tiger (of the Korea Baseball Organizaton from 2016-18), White Sock and Marlin bottomed out last year, when he served up 1.94 HR/9 at Triple-A and 2.28 per nine during a short stint in the majors. The dimensions at PNC Park should help him if he gets there (the park suppressed home runs by nine percent compared to a neutral MLB stadium in 2019), but it may be best if the Pirates have better options and it doesn’t come to that.
• Newman's bat: Is Kevin Newman a legitimately good hitter, or did he get lucky in 2019? Newman posted a park and league-adjusted batting line that was 10 percent better than the overall MLB average last year, which ranked 12th out of 25 shortstops who qualified for the batting title. However, the 26-year-old also made some of the weakest contact among all major leaguers--the kind of contact that makes you wonder whether his offensive performance is sustainable. Newman put the ball in play at an average of just 84.7 mph, according to MLB Statcast, which was nearly three ticks below the MLB average of 87.5 mph. Newman's exit velocity ranked in the fifth percentile among all batters (meaning 95 percent had a higher exit velocity than he did). He batted .308 last season and slugged .446. Based on the quality of his contact, MLB Statcast thinks he should have batted closer to .280 with a .370 slugging percentage. Unless Newman starts putting more of a charge into the ball, don't be surprised if he falls back offensively in 2020.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• Cole's buying: Life's pretty good for Gerrit Cole, no? The former Pirate recently signed a nine-year, $324 million free agent deal with the New York Yankees. The 29-year-old's new contract is the fourth-highest in MLB history in terms of total value, ranking behind only Mike Trout ($426.5 million), Bryce Harper ($330 million) and Giancarlo Stanton ($325 million). In terms of average annual value, Cole's $36 million payout is tops in history--just beating out the likes of Trout ($35.54 million), Stephen Strasburg ($35 million), Anthony Rendon ($35 million), and Justin Verlander ($33 million). MLB teams have every incentive to develop cheaper, younger talent instead of splurging on expensive, thirty-something free agents. And, in this era of the "opener" and bullpen games, the role of the traditional starting pitcher is shifting. But if you're a truly elite arm like Cole, you're still going to get paid the GDP of some small nations.
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