Entering the 2019-20 NHL season, Bryan Rust had seemingly plateaued.
The jack rabbit winger who helped the Penguins hoist two Stanley Cups was subject to trade rumors and, seemingly, the occasional indirect jab from his GM about his desire for a third. And yet, as we near the halfway mark of the season, it's hard to fathom where the Penguins would be without him. Rust is shedding his reputation as a guy who possesses more speed than finishing ability, and he's reaching new heights offensively while remaining a complete pest defensively.
Let's break down how Rust has performed like one of the game's best forwards through the first three months of the season.
Starting with the offense, since Rust has gone from a half-point a game player to a guy who's suddenly among the league leaders. Rust has more than doubled his career goals per game rate (0.64 this year, 0.24 career), and his assist rate (0.64 in 2019-20, 0.28 career). With 1.28 points per game, he's tenth among qualified NHL players and trails only Evgeni Malkin (1.46) among Penguins skaters.
How's he doing that?
Context is certainly part of it. Rust is getting more ice time (a career high 19:16 per game) with more prominent line mates (more on that later). He has started 60 percent of his faceoffs in the offensive zone according to Hockey-Reference (compared to a 51 percent career average), and he's getting 2:01 of power play time per game after averaging all of eight seconds per game in 2018-19. In other words, he's being put in the kind of situations where scoring is more conducive.
But he's doing his part by taking more of a shoot-first mentality. He's averaging 10 shots per 60 minutes of even-strength ice time, according to Natural Stat Trick, which is his highest rate since his NHL cameo in 2014-15 and well above his rate of 7.2 last season. More of his shots are hitting the mark, too. About 68 percent of Rust's shot attempts have gone to the net this season, which is up from 60 percent during the 2018-19 campaign. He's driving toward the net more often this year, unleashing shots from the up-close areas that are more likely to translate into goals. Rust has taken 56 percent of his shots in the area directly in front of the net between the faceoff circles or within the crease, according to the Icy Data website. That's up from 52 percent last year. For comparison's sake, the league average is 34 percent. Seventy-six percent of Rust's goals have been scored within those areas on the ice, compared to 72 percent last year and the 61 percent league average. In terms of shot types, Rust has netted ten goals on wristers (24th in the NHL), two on snap shots, and one apiece on slap shots, backhanders, tip shots and wrap arounds.
Rust is obliterating his career-best offensive numbers while primarily skating with Malkin and, before his injury, Jake Guentzel. These guys have been on the ice together for a little more than 220 total minutes this season during five-on-five play, and they have absolutely dominated in terms of shot attempts, scoring chances and goals scored:
Rust no longer has Guentzel--out for potentially the rest of the season following shoulder surgery--on his line. But Rust and Malkin have shown undeniable chemistry.
While Rust is scoring at an All-Star-worthy clip, he hasn't slipped defensively. If anything, he has re-committed to the aspects of his game that make him a Mike Sullivan favorite. With Rust on the ice during five-on-five play, the Penguins are surrendering 27.9 shot attempts per 60 minutes. That's the lowest rate among Penguins wingers who have skated 250-plus minutes at even strength, and is well below Rust's rate of 32.1 shots per 60 last season. Pittsburgh is allowing 23.9 scoring chances per 60 minutes with Rust skating (down from 27.8 last year) and 9.3 high-danger chances (shots that have the best odds of becoming a goal based on factors like shot type, shot distance and odd-man rushes). Last year, the Penguins gave up 12 high-danger chances per 60 with Rust skating. He's still a major part of the PK, too, averaging 1:33 of short-handed ice time per game.
A few months ago, Rust was potential trade bait. Now, he's an integral part of a Penguins team that ranks among the NHL's best while missing The Captain and several other high-priced talents. And his contract (a $3.5 million cap hit through the 2021-22 season) looks perfectly reasonable, if not a steal, for a team that's always strapped for cap space. It's a stretch to suggest that Rust will keep scoring like the Malkins and MacKinnons of the world, but he has proven that he can finish when he's put in a position to do so.
MORE PENGUINS
• Dodging danger: How have the Penguins managed to notch the fourth-highest points total and second-best goal differential in the NHL despite having players drop faster than characters on The Walking Dead? For starters, they're doing a much better job of limiting prime scoring opportunities. Last season, Pittsburgh allowed 10.6 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes of even-strength ice time, according to Natural Stat Trick. The Penguins ranked a middling 14th in high-danger chances against in 2018-19. This year, however, Sullivan's squad has surrendered just 8.9 high-danger chances per 60 minutes of five-on-five play. That's the third-lowest rate in the game, behind only the Blue Jackets (8.4) and Wild (8.5). When Zach Aston-Reese (6.4 high-danger chances against per 60 minutes), John Marino (7.3) and Teddy Blueger (7.5) are skating, the Penguins have been especially stingy.
• Marino's scoring: At every turn, Marino has exceeded expectations. The former Oilers prospect, acquired for just a sixth-round pick this past July, has been a stout defender since Day One in the NHL. But now, Marino is flashing offensive potential. Marino averaged 0.09 points per game in October while getting 17:19 of ice time. Since then, he has averaged 0.65 points per game while earning a larger role on an injury-ravaged Penguins blue line (21:17 per game). Marino is firing more pucks at the net (1.09 shots per game in October, 1.6 in November-December), and has been on the ice for a larger share of the game's total scoring chances during five-on-five play (49.6 percent in October, 54.1 percent since then; a rate above 50 means the Penguins are generating more chances than opponents with Marino skating). As a 22-year-old rookie, Marino has played like Brian Dumoulin on D and Justin Schultz on offense.
STEELERS
• Run defense falters: The Steelers excelled against the run for most of 2019, allowing the third-fewest yards per attempt (3.8) among all NFL teams. But on Sunday, Pittsburgh was gashed by a Ravens club that didn't even bother suiting up 1,000 yard rushers Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram. The Steelers surrendered 223 rushing yards against Baltimore, which is the most that they have given up in a game in 2019 (the previous high was 168 at San Francisco on September 22). They also gave up a season-worst 5.1 yards per carry (the previous low-water mark was 4.79 per carry versus Indianapolis on November 3). Sunday's performance is tied for the ninth-worst in team history during the post-merger era (1970-present) in terms of rushing yards allowed. The last time they coughed up more rushing yards was October 8, 2017, when the Jaguars racked up 231 on the ground.
• Snell excels: Practically nothing went right for the Steelers offensively against the Ravens--they posted the 18th-lowest total yards (168) during a game in franchise history since the merger--but Benny Snell played well. The rookie running back finished the day with 91 yards on 18 carries (5.1 per attempt), while doing most of his damage to the left side. Snell had 47 yards on six attempts on carries that were behind the left guard, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, and 28 yards on four attempts when running behind the left tackle or around the left end (plus a touchdown). The fourth-round pick out of Kentucky succeeded despite seeing eight or more defenders in the box on 39 percent of his carries, which was the fifth-highest rate among qualified running backs during Week 17. Snell didn't finish the season with gaudy stats (his 3.9 yards per carry was below the 4.3 NFL average), but he did show some burst (nine carries of ten-plus yards in 108 attempts) and physicality (he broke a tackle every 18 rushing attempts, which ranked in the top 30 among running backs). He could steal more carries from an increasingly unavailable and unreliable James Conner in 2020.
• Watt wreaking havoc: The football thing seems to be working out pretty well, but T.J. Watt's wicked right hook could make him a contender in another sport if he so chose. Watt landed a punch that caused his eighth forced fumble of the 2019 season, which ties him with Arizona's Chandler Jones for the NFL lead. Since the NFL started tracking forced fumbles in 1993, only seven players have pried loose more footballs in a single season. Watt's 2019 total trails only Dwayne Harper (10 forced fumbles in 1993), Robert Mathis (10 in 2013), Charles Tillman (10 in 2012), Osi Umenyiora (ten in 2010), Dwight Freeney (nine in 2002), Leonard Little (nine in 2002) and Jason Taylor (nine in 2006).
PIRATES
• Bell versus lefties: Josh Bell morphed into a serious power threat in 2019, bashing 37 home runs (tied for 15th among MLB hitters) and posting a park and league-adjusted batting line that was 43 percent better than the MLB average (11th-best among players who qualified for the batting title). And yet, there's still some room for improvement--at least, against left-handed pitching. The switch-hitting Bell had an adjusted OPS that was 63 percent above average against right-handers. Against lefties, though, his adjusted OPS was three percent below the MLB average. Bell's K rate jumps against lefties (25.3 percent of plate appearances, compared to 17 percent against righties) and so does his ground ball rate (47.1 percent versus lefties, 42.9 percent against right-handers). Bell already looks like a monster offensively, but the 27 year-old could enter the league's inner circle if he can improve against left-handed pitching in 2020.
• All leather, no lumber: Luke Maile, recently signed to a $900,000 free agent deal, could be best summed up as a poor man's Jacob Stallings. He's an acclaimed defensive catcher, with highly questionable lumber. In about 1,600 career innings behind home plate, Maile has saved +21 runs compared to an average defensive catcher, according to Fangraphs' Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) metric. DRS accounts for a catcher's pitch-framing skills (getting extra called strikes for his team on borderline strike zone pitches), control of the running game and pitch blocking ability. The whole hitting thing, though? In a little more than 650 career plate appearances, Maile has a park and league-adjusted OPS that is 49 percent worse than the overall MLB average (51 OPS+). That's paltry, even among typically light-hitting catchers. Maile has the second-worst adjusted OPS among all MLB catchers who have received at least 600 plate appearances over the 2015-19 seasons, besting only Jeff Mathis (39 OPS+). GM Ben Cherington and company doubled down on defense at catcher by discarding Elias Diaz and signing Maile. But if this guy is more than a backup, something has gone wrong for the 2020 Pirates.
• State of the backstops: So where do the Pirates stand behind the plate? What kind of production could we expect from a Stallings/Maile pairing if the team doesn't acquire a better option between now and Opening Day? Fangraphs' Depth Chart projections--which forecast performance based on several well-known projection systems--offer a clue. According to those projections, Stallings is expected to post 2.1 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) while starting about 60 percent of games at catcher. WAR measures a player's overall offensive, defensive and base running value compared to a fringe major league player. Maile is expected to be worth 0.4 WAR as the backup. With 2.5 WAR combined, the Pirates are projected to rank 14th among major league teams. Last year, the Pirates ranked 26th in the majors with -0.4 WAR from their catchers (in other words, they got worse production in 2019 than you'd expect from the kind of player picked off the waiver wire). Stallings and Maile are hardly an exciting duo, but they might be better than you think in 2020 while the Pirates search for a long-term solution at catcher.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• More than a scrambler: Yes, Baltimore's Lamar Jackson might be the greatest rushing quarterback that we've ever seen (his 1,206 yards on the ground this year crushed the previous single-season high for a QB, set by Mike Vick with 1,039 in 2006). But don't label him as just a scrambling QB--he's also one of the best young passing QBs that we've ever seen. Jackson's passer rating, once adjusted for the league-wide offensive environment in 2019, was 29 percent above average. That's the fifth-best adjusted passer rating ever for a QB who was age 25 or younger and attempted at least 400 throws during the post-merger era. The only young gun QBs with a better adjusted passer rating were Dan Marino (141 in 1984), Drew Brees (131 in 2004), Patrick Mahomes (131 in 2018) and Ben Roethlisberger (130 in 2007). The guy could be a dual-threat terror for years to come.
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