Is Evgeni Malkin slipping?
That seemed like a perfectly valid question entering the 2019-20 season. Sure, Malkin still managed to score more than a point per game last season. But the big Russian wasn’t his usual, dominant self. He didn’t create as much offense as in years past. He was careless with the puck and penalty-prone. His GM didn’t exactly quell offseason trade talk. It was enough to make you wonder whether the 14-year pro was entering the decline phase of his career—and starting to close the Penguins' championship window in the process.
Instead, Malkin is playing inspired hockey. At age 33, Malkin is driving the Penguins toward the top of the Metropolitan Division standings. He's generating offense at a clip not seen since his MVP season in 2011-12, cutting down on turnovers and unnecessary trips to the penalty box and even turning in some of the best defensive play of his eventual Hall of Fame career. In a young man's league, the Penguins' oldest player has been their best.
You know you're an offensive dynamo when you average 1.06 points per game, as Malkin did during the 2018-19 season, and that's considered a disappointment. This year, he has boosted his rate to 1.34 per game. That ranks seventh among all qualified NHL players and is the third-best rate of his career. (Malkin averaged 1.45 per game in 2011-12 and 1.38 per game in 2008-09.)
It's rare for a player Malkin's age to rank among the game's scoring elite. Of the league's top 20 players in points-per-game this season, only four are in their thirties; the average age of those 20 is just 25.9. In fact, Malkin is enjoying one of the top scoring seasons ever for a player who is 33 or older and has appeared in at least 25 games:
Malkin is scoring plenty of goals (0.38 per game) and is taking a more aggressive approach to shooting (he's taking 9.2 shots per 60 minutes of five-on-five ice time, compared to 7.3 last season). But he's also facilitating more offense for his linemates, averaging a career-high and NHL-best 0.97 assists per game. With Malkin equally capable of slashing toward the net or making a silky-smooth pass, he's driving puck-possession for his team like he rarely has during his career.
With Malkin on the ice during five-on-five play, the Penguins are taking 41.7 shots per 60 minutes, according to Natural Stat Trick. That's the third-highest rate among all NHL forwards with 400+ minutes of even-strength ice time this season. Last year, Pittsburgh took 31.8 shots per 60 with Malkin on the ice. They're generating 36 scoring chances per 60 minutes this season, which is tops among all forwards and is up from 29.3 with Malkin on the ice in 2018-19. The Penguins also are generating far more high-danger scoring chances, which are those with the best odds of becoming a goal based on shot type, shot location and odd-man rush situations. Pittsburgh is averaging 16 of those per 60 minutes with Malkin skating; that's third-best among all NHL forwards and well above last season's mark of 12.5. Malkin still commits more turnovers than you'd like (3.8 giveaways per 60 minutes at five-on-five), albeit fewer than last year (4.1).
So, Malkin has been an offensive force. But that's not all -- he's also playing the kind of two-way game that has to please coach Mike Sullivan. During five-on-five play, the Penguins are allowing fewer shots (29.4, compared to 32.9 last season), scoring chances (24.2, 24.9 in 2018-19) and high-danger chances (9.8, 11.2 last season) with Malkin on the ice. He's looking like Minkah Fitzpatrick on skates out there, grabbing 5.1 takeaways per 60 minutes. That's by far the highest takeaway rate of his career (the previous best was 3.7 in 2017-18) and the highest clip among NHL forwards in 2019-20. Malkin has even cut down on those infuriating penalties (2.7 per 60 minutes, compared to a career-high 4.4 last year).
With Malkin excelling on both sides of the game, he has helped the Penguins dominate the puck in 2019-20. The Penguins are generating five percent more of the game's total shots when Malkin is skating at even-strength, compared to when he's not on the ice. By comparison, they generated only +0.7 percent more shots with Malkin in 2018-19, and his career average is +2.5 percent.
Aside from missing about a month because of an injury, Malkin has turned in a vintage, MVP-worthy season. There are many reasons this team has stayed in contention with Sidney Crosby missing two months and countless others spending time on injured-reserve, but Malkin's return to form arguably is the most important. He's still in his prime, and the Penguins remain prime Stanley Cup contenders.
MORE PENGUINS
• Losing Guentzel: The 2019-20 Penguins have withstood a zombie apocalypse-level attack on their roster while remaining near the top of the standings. The loss of Jake Guentzel, however, may be a different matter. He is expected to miss at least the rest of the regular season following shoulder surgery, which leaves Pittsburgh without a stealth star who ranks 11th in goals per game (0.5) and 27th in points per game (0.98) among all NHL players since the start of last season. Guentzel also clicked remarkably well with the team’s two star centers. During five-on-five play, the Penguins generated more of the game's total scoring chances when Guentzel skated with Crosby (56.5 percent) since the start of 2018-19 than when Crosby skated without him (52.6 percent). The same is true of for Malkin (57.5 percent when Guentzel skates with him, 55.4 percent when Malkin skates without him). Losing Guentzel is a massive blow.
• Galchenyuk's woes: When the Penguins traded Phil Kessel to the Arizona Coyotes, part of GM Jim Rutherford's motivation was to clear salary-cap space in future seasons while picking up an interesting defensive prospect in Pierre-Olivier Joseph. But there was also some hope that Alex Galchenyuk could be Kessel Lite, getting back to being a 20+ goal scorer while getting power play time. Instead, Galchenyuk has mostly been a $4.9 million fourth liner. His points per game total (0.42) and shots per game rate (1.76) are below his career averages (0.61 and 2.1, respectively). And when he has been on the ice, the Penguins are chasing the puck. With Galchenyuk on the ice during even-strength play, the Penguins are generating -2.8 percent fewer of the game's total shots compared to when he's on the bench. That's the fifth-worst relative shot share of any Penguins forward who has played in at least ten games, besting only Joseph Blandisi (-11 percent), Sam Lafferty (-3.6 percent), Patric Hornqvist and Nick Bjugstad (-3.6 percent each). For comparison's sake, Galchenyuk's teams have generated +0.2 percent more shots when he's skating at even-strength overall during his NHL career. So far, Galchenyuk is the front-runner for the 2019-20 Derick Brassard Square Peg, Round Hole Award.
STEELERS
• Heyward still going strong: Newly minted All-Pro Cameron Heyward turned in one of his best seasons in 2019. Heyward racked up nine sacks, which is the second-most of his nine-year NFL tenure (he had 12 in 2017) and tied for 12th among all defensive linemen. Heyward also registered 22 QB hits (tied with 2017 for a career high and tied for seventh among all NFL defenders) and 11 tackles for loss (tied for second-most of his career and 17th among defenders in 2019). Entering his age-31 season, Heyward is still playing at an elite level.
• JuJu's decline: JuJu Smith-Schuster endured a number of challenges in 2019--no Antonio Brown garnering double teams, a carousel of mediocre QB play, and concussion/knee injuries--but there's no disputing that his production nosedived. Smith-Schuster posted the lowest catch rate (60 percent), yards per game (46), yards per target (7.9) and touchdown (3) totals of his three-year career. While he was hardly put in a position to succeed with a onetime fourth-string QB slinging it, Smith-Schuster also dropped more passes in 2019 (7.1 percent of his targets) than in 2018 (3.6 percent), according to Pro Football Reference. He had the tenth-worst drop rate among all qualified wide receivers. He also had just 2.4 yards of separation from the nearest defender at the time of his receiving targets, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. That's down from an average of three yards of separation in 2018. Smith-Schuster will be overjoyed to catch passes from Ben Roethlisberger in 2020, but he needs to show better hands and create more of a buffer between him and defenders no matter who's under center.
• Subpar punting: It’s hardly at the top of GM Kevin Colbert’s offseason to-do list, but the Steelers need to at least consider moving on from Jordan Berry in 2020. This past year, Berry ranked 21st in net yards per punt (40.9) and 19th in kicks placed inside the 20 yard line (24). It’s not just a one-year blip, either, as Berry ranked 26th in net average and 11th on kicks inside the 20 in 2018 and 23rd in net average and 21st on kicks inside the 20 in 2017. After several mediocre seasons in a row, it’s time for a change.
PIRATES
• Weakest link: What's the weakest position on the field for the Pirates entering 2020? If you believe the depth chart projections on Fangraphs, which factor in the forecasts for several well-known systems, it's third base. Pittsburgh is projected to get just one Win Above Replacement (WAR) at the position, which is about half of the production of an average starter. WAR accounts for a player's offensive, defensive and base running value compared to a waiver wire-caliber player. Of course, that projection has Colin Moran--who has stalled out as a doubles hitter and a defensive liability--getting the bulk of the playing time. It's just another reminder of why the development of top prospect Ke'Bryan Hayes, whose defensive reputation currently outpaces that of his bat, is so important.
• Will Reynolds regress? Speaking of projections, you may be surprised to see that Bryan Reynolds is forecast to hit a tamer .288 with a .350 on-base percentage and a .453 slugging percentage in 2020, as opposed to his rookie line of .314/.377/.503. While Reynolds' offensive production was 31 percent above average after factoring in park and league factors, his 2020 projection is only 11 percent above average. If you're skeptical, you can point out that he had a .387 batting average on balls in play that was nearly 90 points above the overall MLB average (.298). If you're pro-Reynolds, you could point to the fact that he put the ball in play at a scorching 89.6 mph, per MLB Statcast--more than two ticks above the MLB average (87.5). So, he earned more of those hits. Reynolds is a decent, but hardly stellar defender and base runner. So his bat will be the difference between him being a building block, or merely a good complementary player.
• Maile's framing: With a new coaching staff in place, the 2020 Pirates may move farther away from the low-ball, sinker-centric pitching approach that worked wonders from 2013-15 but quickly became obsolete as hitters adjusted. If that's the case, then new catcher Luke Maile is well-positioned to help Pirates pitchers steal extra strikes on high pitches. During his most substantive MLB stint in 2018, Maile got called strikes on 48.3 percent of pitches that were thrown directly above the strike zone, according to Statcast. The MLB average for catchers is 38.9 percent in that zone. That trend help up in 2019, too (Maile had a 47.1 percent called strike rate on high pitches above the plate). If guys like Chris Archer, Joe Musgrove and Steven Brault decide to work upstairs more often, Maile could be an asset.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• Bumper crop of rookie blue liners: John Marino isn't the only rookie defenseman who's excelling in 2019-20. Several other first-year defenders rank among the game's best at the position in terms of scoring--and one is doing so at an all-time clip so far. Colorado's Cale Makar ranks fourth among all defensemen who have played 25+ games in points per game (0.94), while Vancouver's Quinn Hughes (0.73) ranks 11th. The Rangers' Adam Fox (0.54) and and old Harvard teammate Marino (0.48) also crack the top 50 among defensemen. Makar is compiling points at a rate surpassed by only two rookie defensemen during the modern era (1967-68 to present): Hartford's Mark Howe (1.08 in 1979-80) and the LA Kings' Larry Murphy (0.95 in 1980-81), who also spent five years of his Hall of Fame career in Pittsburgh.
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