The Hall of Fame class of 2020 will be announced Tuesday night, but we already have a good impression of which players have a real chance of being enshrined this year.
Thanks to the tireless work of Ryan Thibodaux, who tracks all of the public Hall of Fame ballots, we now know how about half of the BBWAA members voted. Thibodaux's full spreadsheet of votes (which includes DK's ballot) can be found here.
A player needs to appear on at least 75% of ballots to be enshrined in the Hall of Fame. They have 10 years of voter eligibility, but if they fail to get at least 5% of the vote, they are taken off future ballots. Each BBWAA member can vote for up to 10 players, though many vote for fewer than 10.
With the final results looming, let's examine the 22 former players who were eligible this year and what their odds are of getting the call.
Sure to get in
Derek Jeter
The only question surrounding Jeter is whether or not he will join Mariano Rivera as the only players to get 100% of the vote. Whether you value analytics or counting stats, there is no denying Jeter deserves to be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Saying much more would just be overkill.
Legitimate shot
Curt Schilling, Larry Walker
This is Walker's 10th year on the ballot, and like Edgar Martinez and Tim Raines in recent years, he has surged in the polls in his final crack at Cooperstown. While some have argued he is merely a product of hitting in Coors Field, his 141 OPS+, which takes a player's home field into consideration, is virtually the same as Hall of Famers Chipper Jones, Reggie Jackson, Vladimir Guerrero and Duke Snider. He also has seven Gold Gloves.
At the moment, Walker has appeared on 83.3% of ballots, which puts him in a pretty good position, but last year, his final vote total was 11.3 points lower than his pre-tracked results. If he has a similar drop, he will be right on the 75% borderline. It looks like he will either just make it or just miss.
Schilling is completely deserving of the Hall as a player, but has been left off many ballots because of the character clause. Whether it's defrauding the Rhode Island state government out of millions of dollars, advocating for journalists to be lynched or spreading bigotry, Schilling has been the center of controversy since retiring from the game.He currently has appeared on 78.4% of ballots, so even if he does not get the necessary votes, he will likely crack 70%, putting him in very good position of eventually getting in soon.
The two elephants in the room
Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens
The debate of if Bonds and Clemens are deserving of the Hall will last at least another year. While both have picked up a couple votes on the known ballots thus far, Bonds currently sits at 71.8% of the vote and Clemens 71%. Neither player does well on the private ballots, though, with both finishing nearly 12% lower than their pre-tracked results in 2019. Finishing with 60-something percent seems likely, inching the two closer to enshrinement. The question then becomes will either get voted in before the clock strikes midnight two years from now.
Will stay on the ballot for 2021
Todd Helton, Andruw Jones, Jeff Kent, Andy Pettitte, Manny Ramirez, Scott Rolen, Gary Sheffield, Sammy Sosa, Omar Vizquel, Billy Wagner
Everyone has picked up votes so far, with the real winners being Rolen, Sheffield and Wagner. Rolen is up 50 votes from last year, putting him at 47.4%, Sheffield is up 43 votes to put him at 36.6% and Wagner is now on 35.2% of ballots after picking up 37 votes. All three will fall well short of the 75% threshold, but with next year's ballot looking particularly thin, this could be good momentum for them eventually getting enshrined.
Everyone in this category has multiple years of eligibility remaining, though Sosa is down to just two more tries. He is far from the necessary votes to get in, though, currently sitting at 17.4%.
In danger of falling off the ballot
Bobby Abreu
It's debatable if Abreu is actually deserving of the Hall of Fame. There's no question 60 career WAR, 2,470 hits, 574 doubles and 400 stolen bases are all impressive numbers, but he was only named to two All-Star teams, won only one Gold Glove and Silver Slugger and never finished in the top 10 for MVP. He did have a very solid seven year run from 1998-2004, but he was never a top-10 player. Better outfielders, like Kenny Lofton, have been one and done in recent years, but with 6.1% of the vote, he has a chance at finishing above the 5% cut-off.
One and done
Eric Chavez, Rafael Furcal, Jason Giambi, Paul Konerko, Cliff Lee, Alfonso Soriano
There is no shame in only getting one crack at the Hall of Fame. It means you had a long, successful career. But nobody here will get more than a couple of votes.