The Pirates haven't added any notable starting pitchers this offseason, but they have done everything possible to set up their incumbent options for success. From adding a new-age, analytics-savvy pitching coach in Oscar Marin, to prioritizing pitch-framing and rangy defenders in free agency, it's all about run prevention for the 2020 team.
But they do need those incumbent starters to pull their weight. And no pitcher has more to prove this year than Chris Archer.
For many fans and analysts, Archer will forever be known as the underwhelming return in one of the most lopsided trades in franchise history. Is he a complete lost cause, or a candidate to rebound in 2020? Let's break down what Archer must do to look more like the borderline ace from his Tampa Bay days, rather than the punching bag he became in 2019.
There's no sugarcoating it: Archer bombed in 2019.
He continued to punch out plenty of batters (27.2 percent strikeout rate, which ranked 25th among all MLB starting pitchers with 100+ innings and outpaced his 25.9 percent career average). But his control wavered (10.5 percent walk rate, fifth-worst among all starters last year and above his 8.1 percent career average) and he gave up a ton of home runs (1.88 per nine innings, 12th-worst among starters and above his 1.09 career average). His fielding independent ERA (FIP)--a more accurate measure of a pitcher's performance based on strikeouts, walks and homers allowed--was 5.02. That was the 17th-worst mark among all starters with 100+ innings, and nearly a run and a half above his 3.65 career average.
So, how does Archer forge a comeback? For starters ...
• Forget your sinker. Seriously, use one of those Men in Black memory wipe devices if you can. Archer threw a sinker a little more than 10 percent of the time in 2019, according to MLB Statcast. When he did, every batter turned into BALCO-era Barry Bonds. Opponents slugged .778 off Archer's sinker last year, with six home runs. Thankfully, Archer has already course-corrected here. He threw his sinker 19.6 percent of the time in April, 20.9 percent in May, 9.6 percent in June, 1 percent in July and 0.6 percent in August (he missed September with a shoulder injury).
• Emphasize your slider. During his best days with the Rays, Archer was a slider machine. He threw his upper-80s slider about 42 percent of the time from 2015-17. Last year, however, he threw his out pitch just 35 percent of the time. Why should he throw it more? Because his slider misses bats and induces weak contact. Archer induced a whiff 42 percent of the time that opponents swung at his slider last year, blowing by the 18 percent MLB average. Archer had the tenth-highest slider whiff rate among MLB starters who threw the pitch at least 300 times. Opposing batters put Archer's slider in play at an average of 85 mph in 2019, well below the 86.7 mph league average. That was one of the 20-lowest slider exit velocities among starters. Archer's slider is still wicked, and he should get back to using it as much as he did during his Tampa Bay years.
• Throw high heat. Archer is much better when he throws his fastball to the upper third of the strike zone (.349 slugging percentage allowed) compared to when he throws the pitch belt-high (.600) or low (.472). He also has a bad habit of leaving his pitches center-cut. Last year, Archer threw his four-seam fastball to both the horizontal and vertical middle of the strike zone 8.7 percent of the time. That's above the 8.3 percent MLB average. And when Archer left his four-seamer over the heart of the zone, hitters teed off for an .810 slugging percentage. His fastball location was especially bad on the first pitch of an at-bat, with 10.2 percent of his four-seamers crossing the horizontal and vertical middle of the zone. Which brings us to ...
• Stop first-pitch batting practice. In 2019, Archer was annihilated for an .840 slugging percentage on the first pitch of an at-bat. That was more than 200 points above the overall MLB average (.630), and was the ninth-worst mark among all pitchers who had at least 50 first-pitch at-bats. For most of his career, Archer has actually been pretty good (relatively speaking) when hitters swing at the first pitch (.567 slugging percentage allowed).
So, that's the Cliffs Notes version of what Archer needs to work on in 2020: Toss four-seamers high in the zone, unleash more sliders and for the love of Ray Searage, don't even think about the sinker. How likely is Archer to bounce back? The ZiPS projection system on Fangraphs has Archer shaving about a run off his ERA. That hardly makes him an elite starter, but it could make him the best on the Pirates' staff:
If Archer posts an ERA in the low fours this year, it's hardly going to ease the pain of losing a stealth Cy Young candidate (Tyler Glasnow), a power-hitting corner outfielder (Austin Meadows) and a power pitcher ranked among the game's top 75 prospects by Baseball America (Shane Baz). But it would recoup some value for a new regime tasked with making the best of a colossal mistake made by their predecessors.
MORE PIRATES
• Polanco's D: At one point, Gregory Polanco was a top prospect who had a chance to play a capable center field. Early on during his MLB career, he was a skilled corner outfielder with a cannon arm. Now, at age 28 and still trying to work past a devastating shoulder injury suffered in late 2018, the question is whether Polanco can at least avoid being a defensive liability. From 2014-17, Polanco saved an average of +5.5 runs per 150 games played compared to an average outfielder, according to the Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) stat. UZR measures a fielder's skill compared to an average player at his position while accounting for range, throwing arm and errors. Polanco's arm alone saved about +12 runs over those four seasons. Since 2018, though, Polanco has been -4.1 runs worse than an average outfielder per 150 games played. Last year, in just 36 total games, Polanco's arm cost his team nearly three runs. At this point, Polanco's bat is going to dictate his value to the Pirates. But if his D remains this bad, he'll really have to rake.
• High speed, low speed: Jarrod Dyson, the Pirates' presumed Opening Day center fielder, is a jackrabbit on the bases and on the grass. In 2019, Dyson's sprint speed--which MLB Statcast defines as a player's feet per second covered in the fastest one-second window on individual base running plays--was 28.4. That's well above the MLB average of 27 feet per second. He also ranked sixth among all qualified outfielders in Jump, which measures the number of feet above or below average that a defender covers during the first three seconds after the ball is put in play (Dyson covers +1.3 feet more ground than an average fielder). In another way, though, Dyson is one of the game's slowest players. At the plate, Dyson put the ball in play at an average of just 82 mph last year. That was the third-lowest average exit velocity among all MLB hitters, ranking ahead of only Billy Hamilton (78.3 mph) and Victor Robles (81 mph). The big league average is 87.5 mph. Dyson's wheels are awesome, even at age 35. But that's all he brings to the table.
MORE PENGUINS
• Power play revival: Over the first several months of the 2019-20 season, the Penguins normally dominant power play was a mess. With injuries depriving the team of many of its top power play options for large chunks of the year--most notably Sidney Crosby--Pittsburgh converted just 19.1 percent of the time with the man advantage through December (16th among NHL teams). Since the start of January, though? The Penguins are scoring 24.6 percent of the time on the PP. That's sixth among all teams, trailing just the Rangers (32.8 percent), Stars (29.7), Wild (27.9), Sabres (25.9) and Oilers (25.9). Through December, the Penguins generated 51 scoring chances per 60 minutes of power play time, according to Natural Stat Trick (11th in the league). During the new year, they're getting an NHL-best 62.8 scoring chances per 60.
• Letang's slapshot: Kris Letang is one of the most offensively gifted defensemen of this era, or any other. At age 32, he already ranks ninth among active blue liners in career goals scored (126) during the modern era (1967-68 to present). By the time he's done, he'll easily crack the top five. But have you noticed just how lethal Letang's slap shot is? He has taken 175 slap shots over the past three seasons, according to NHL.com, and he has scored 13 goals on those shots. Among all defensemen, only Shea Weber (24 goals on slap shots), P.K. Subban (20), John Carlson (19), Matt Dumba (18) and Brent Burns (17) have netted more goals on slap shots since the beginning of 2017-18. With Letang's quick wind-up, and plenty of net front traffic, his slap shot is one of the best in the game.
• Depth defensemen excel: Let's give a hand to depth defensemen Chad Ruhwedel and Juuso Riikola, who have done a stellar job while filling in for the likes of Brian Dumoulin, John Marino and Justin Schultz over the past few months. With Ruhwedel and Riikola skating together during five-on-five play, the Penguins have generated 52.3 percent of the game's total shots, 60 percent of scoring chances and 64.3 percent of goals. Not bad for the seventh and eighth (or ninth) guys on the depth chart, who carry a combined cap hit of $1.55 million. Riikola, in particular, doesn't seem to get enough credit -- or ice time -- in Pittsburgh.
STEELERS
• Passer beware: Thanks to a savvy free agent signing (Steven Nelson) and a bold but spectacular trade (Minkah Fitzpatrick), the Steelers' secondary evolved from a middle-of-the pack unit in 2018 to one of the game's best in 2019. In '18, Pittsburgh's pass defense was 7.5 percent worse than the NFL average on a per-play basis, according to Football Outsiders. This past year, the Steelers' secondary was 16.7 percent above average. That ranked third among all teams, behind only the Patriots (32.2 percent above average per play) and 49ers (26.3 percent). For the first time in a long while, pass defense isn't a problem spot for the Steelers heading into the draft.
• Mistakes of youth: Last week, we covered how the Steelers' receivers dropped plenty of catchable balls thrown by Mason Rudolph. But that's not to say that the former Oklahoma State star was on-target as much as the Steelers would have hoped. Last year, Rudolph had a "bad throw" percentage of 20.1, according to Pro Football Reference's advanced passing stats. Bad throws are those deemed uncatchable by the website's game charters. Rudolph had the seventh-highest bad throw rate among qualified QBs last year. He also ranked 28th in the league in on-target percentage (71.4), which is the rate of throws that would have hit the intended receiving target.
• Separating factor: Diontae Johnson turned in one of the better rookie seasons ever by a Steelers wide receiver, ranking second among that cohort in catches (59) and seventh in yards (680). The third-round pick out of Toledo also showed that while he might not have elite straight-line speed (he ran a 4.53 40-yard dash at the combine), he has what it takes to get open at the NFL level. Johnson placed first among all wide outs last year in separation, which is the average number of yards between a receiver and the nearest defender at the time of a catch. Johnson had an average of 3.6 yards of separation, which was more than a yard more than the next closest Steelers wide out (James Washington, at 2.5).
THE NATIONAL TREND
• Cold corner: While Josh Bell crushed plenty of pitches last year, we have seen an historically low number of sluggers at first base in recent seasons. In both 2018 and 2019, first basemen posted a park-adjusted batting line that was just 5 percent better than the overall MLB average. Those seasons are tied for the second-worst at the position during the Expansion Era (1961-present), besting only 1963 (four percent above average). There are plenty of potential reasons for the downturn, including more catchers getting spot-starts at first and teams willing to play defensively-challenged guys at other corner positions in this era of shifts and strikeouts. But we're a long way from the days when first base was the preeminent power spot on the field.
LET'S HEAR FROM YOU!
Stats ‘N’ At is a weekly feature that takes a deep dive into the numbers that define our city's sports scene.
Have a question? Post it in comments below!
