Of all the shortcomings the 2019 Pirates had, none was more apparent than their pitching.
After investing heavily in the staff during the 2018 trade deadline, virtually everyone was either hurt, failed to live up to expectations or regressed from the previous season. It was the worst case scenario, and their 5.19 team ERA fell just short of being the worst in franchise history.
While there was a massive overhaul in coaching this offseason, the Pirates are returning most of that staff from last year. The main exceptions are Jameson Taillon, who is out for the year after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and Derek Holland, who was added this offseason should be in the starter mix once the season resumes. While players were very receptive and praised new pitching coach Oscar Marin during spring training, fixing the pitching is a large undertaking.
So let's make it smaller. These four pitchers will play an integral part to the Pirates' improvements or shortcomings when the 2020 season finally gets underway. Each of them has one pitch in particular that could determine their success. One fastball, one changeup, one slider, one curveball. Obviously the Pirates have more pitching problems than just a couple pitchers, but it's hard to imagine the staff improving without these pitchers. These are the most important pitches to the Pirates' 2020 season.
CHRIS ARCHER'S FASTBALL
The Pirates traded for Archer during the 2018 deadline and immediately made him dust off a two-seam fastball. The experiment went about as poorly as possible, as Archer's sinker was hit hard and he pitched to a 5.85 ERA over his first dozen starts of the season.
Archer ditched the sinker in June and pitched much better over the final two months of the season before his campaign prematurely ended in August. While his 4.42 ERA over those final 11 appearances was still on the high side, his peripherals greatly improved, including a 3.78 FIP and 31.2 percent strikeout rate. Those metrics were more in less in line with what he had done with the Rays the previous three seasons.
What was interesting was he had the success with a revitalized four-seamer. In the past, Archer's fastball was really just good enough, and he relied on his slider to get outs. But for the final two months of the season, batters hit just .232 with a .390 slugging percentage. Going by the latter stat, it was the best two month stretch he had with the fastball since 2015:
Archer's slider has been getting diminishing returns over the past few years. That's partially because he is getting less vertical movement on it, but also because he didn't have another pitch he could heavily lean on. Perhaps that's too much to ask from his fastball, but after years of relying on his slider, the pitch could use some support. A better fastball would do a lot of good in more ways than one.
The previous coaching and management regime wanted Archer to rely on his fastball more. They may have just told him to focus on the wrong one.
JOE MUSGROVE'S CHANGEUP
Musgrove was the subject of the last Mound Visit, with the focus being on him planning to throw up in the zone more this season and how his curveball could play off that. Musgrove is a former top-100 prospect and has four offerings that could be potentially plus pitches. It's why he's been a trendy breakout pick for a couple years now. However, it hasn't all come together yet for him in the majors, posting an ERA above 4.00 every season.
His changeup is a microcosm of his young career. The blog Pitcher List rated it as a "money pitch," or a pitch that can be thrown in the zone, get whiffs out of the zone and get swings and misses in general. In fact, it's an underutilized money pitch, according to Ben Palmer.
It's tough to hit, but when a batter does get a hold of it, they hit it hard. Of the 19 hits he allowed on it, 10 went for extra-bases. There weren't a lot of cheap shots either, with the average exit velocity (88.6 mph) well above the league average (83.4 mph). That's a departure from 2018, when it got plenty of soft contact.
The reason why could be as simple as control. Here is where Musgrove threw his changeups last year:
It's clear he is aiming for that low and away corner to left-handers, but more than a couple hung over the heart of the plate. That's where the hits were located:
Musgrove doesn't have a major lefty problem, but he does seem to get burned when he makes a mistake. Tightening the command will go a long way, especially with the changeup.
KYLE CRICK'S SLIDER
“Everybody knows that the slider is an elite pitch.”
That's what Derek Shelton had to say about Crick's slider after his spring debut on March 1. Watching it at LECOM Park, you could see why it is elite and why Crick is a special talent. Or if you didn't see it, maybe you heard the sound of him shattering two bats.
After an impressive 2018 campaign, Crick took a noticeable step back in 2019, recording a 4.96 ERA and a 15.5 percent walk rate, the latter being the fourth worst among relievers. However, Crick's slider still had the air of an elite pitch. His 3,246 rpm spin rate and 10.4 inches of horizontal movement averages were both second best among the league's sliders. Batters only hit .128 and slugged .295 against his slider, too.
Like Archer, Crick's slider is a better put away pitch than his fastball. While his heater gave him more troubles last year, the slider wasn't as sharp as it was the year prior. Fewer sliders were either in or on the edge of the strike zone, and while he did get more chases, he got fewer whiffs on those chases. A pitch with that much spin and movement would usually get more strikeouts. It was doing just that in April and May, but not in July and August.
Crick had other hiccups in 2019 that have been rectified. He revealed to Dejan Kovacevic during spring training that he was tipping his pitches last year. He also struggled when the poor-framing Elias Diaz was behind the plate. He came to camp happy, healthy and optimistic about the 2020 season. Getting the feel back for his slider after his surgery in September was part of the reason why.
KEONE KELA'S CURVEBALL
What better way to close this out than with the closer's best pitch?
Kela's spring results weren't great, but don't put much stock into it. Not only was he pitching in innings well earlier than he normally would, he also was experimenting with his pitch selection, throwing his curveball in situations most normally wouldn't, including when he was down in the count and on 3-2. Spring is the perfect time to experiment, after all.
Kela's curve was consistently good last season, even before he went on the injured list in May. His fastball has life, but the curveball is the finisher. But he isn't afraid to use it in all counts. Last year he upped his curveball usage from 35.7 to 43.8 percent. Looking at how he used it by count, it's clear he was willing to use it whenever he wanted:
Kela relied on his curve more than his fastball on 3-2, 2-1 and 1-1 counts. Almost every other reliever would go with heat for those crucial pitches.
Kela knew he has the fastball, but he wanted to make sure his curveball was ready, hence the extra reps.
“Being able to come into later inning roles, I want to be able to establish something different, get guys off-balance," Kela said about his curveball-heavy approach during spring training.
The question with Kela's curve is will he up its usage again this season? He can throw it in the zone and still get break on it, so it's possible. If he wants to keep batters off-balance, it would definitely be a different look if they had just seen a Nick Burdi fastball or Crick slider.
