Examining Cherington, Sanders' Toronto drafts

Earlier this week, we took a look at Pirates general manager Ben Cherington's drafts with the Red Sox. Between his stints as a general manager, he joined the Blue Jays as their vice-president of baseball operations in September 2016.

Cherington did not oversee the amateur draft with the Blue Jays, though. That fell under amateur scouting director Steve Sanders' jurisdiction, but Cherington hired Sanders as an assistant general manager this offseason. So had did they do in those three drafts together?

Most of the Blue Jays' top prospects, including Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Cavan Biggio and Bo Bichette joined the organization before Sanders and Cherington were hired, but they were able to add more highly-rated prospects to the system.

FIRST ROUND PICKS

2017, Pick 22: SS Logan Warmoth


2017, Pick 28: RHP Nate Pearson

The Blue Jays had two first rounders in 2017 after receiving a compensation pick for losing Edwin Encarnacion in free agency, and they are lucky they got that second crack at first round talent. Warmoth appeared to be a safe pick at the time, winning the Brooks Wallace Award as the best collegiate shortstop in the country. However, he was hampered with hamstring injuries the past two years and wasn't been able to find a groove at the plate. He's dropped off the Blue Jays' top prospect list, but a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League has kept his career alive for now.

Pearson was definitely the riskier pick. Most had him pegged as a third or fourth round pick until he turned heads in a pre-draft showcase, hitting triple digits with ease. The Blue Jays bit and not only drafted him in the first round, but signed him to a deal over his slot value. That has turned out to be a terrific gamble, as Pearson is a top 10 prospect in the game. FanGraphs even goes as far to say that he has the best fastball out of any prospect. Most of the Blue Jays' young core was drafted before Cherington and Sanders reached Toronto, but Pearson is just as talented as them.

2018, Pick 12: SS Jordan Groshans


Groshans was a bit of a stretch at 12th overall, with the Blue Jays' mindset being to sign a player a little lower on the draft board in order to allocate money to other rounds. That is nothing against Groshans, who still had first round potential and is considered a top 100 prospect now. He should be able to tap into his raw power as he fills out, though that would probably mean he will need to move from shortstop to third base.

It's far too early to judge a high school draft selection this soon, but Groshans looks like a safe, quality prospect that a team would hope to take when they draft in the upper-half of the first round.

2019, Pick 11: RHP Alek Manoah

Manoah was selected about where the draft experts expected. Stuff wise, he may have been the best pitcher in the draft, flashing an upper-90s fastball and wipeout slider. The main reason why he fell to the Blue Jays is he bounced between the bullpen and rotation his first two years in West Virginia, finally earning a starting job after a strong showing in the Cape Cod League in 2018. Like Pearson, the Blue Jays were willing to bet on what they saw that year. He isn't quite a top-100 prospect right now, but if he can develop a third pitch, he could jump onto those lists next year.



OTHER NOTABLE PICKS

2017: C Hagen Danner, 2nd round; C Riley Adams, 3rd round; SS Kevin Smith, 4th round


Danner was the Blue Jays' other big gamble this draft, signing him for more than $450,000 over his slot value. He was a pitcher and catcher in high school, and the Blue Jays opted for him to be the latter. They knew he had a strong enough arm to be a catcher and hoped that he could tap into his raw power now that he wasn't focusing on pitching too. He ended up becoming an ok power-hitter, clubbing 12 home runs in 300 plate appearances in A-ball last year, but his hit tool never developed, and he fanned far too many times to be a productive hitter. He is considered a non-prospect right now.

Adams and Smith are near the backend of the Blue Jays' top 30-prospect list, and both got an invitation to the big club's spring training this year.

2018: RF Griffin Conine, 2nd round; RHP Adam Kloffenstein, 3rd round; RHP Joey Murray, 8th round; RHP Jackson Rees, undrafted


The Blue Jays may have gone overslot to sign Danner and Pearson, but that pales in comparison to Kloffenstein. They selected him in the third round and gave him first round money, signing him for $2.45 million to forgo college, nearly quadruple what a person in his slot is projected to make. Was it worth it? The Jays hoped he would add some velocity to his fastball as he grew into his body, but two years later, that hasn't happened. He still has the tools to be a big league pitcher and is universally regarded as a top-10 prospect within in the organization. The belief was they would have another elite pitching prospect to pair with Pearson. Instead, it looks like they have a future backend of the rotation starter.

Conine is near the middle of the top-30 lists and could be on the rise as he starts tapping into his raw power. Murray has risen quickly through the farm system, but his ceiling is limited. Rees was signed shortly after the draft, with most teams afraid to invest a pick into a 24-year-old. He is not a complete pitcher, but he has one of the best curveballs in all of minor-league baseball. If his fastball plays, he could be a Major League reliever.

2019: RHP Kendall Williams, 2nd round; OF Dasan Brown, 3rd round; OF Will Robertson, 4th round; SS Tanner Morris, 5th round


It's far too early to seriously evaluate this draft, though MLB insider Jim Callis did rate the Blue Jays' draft as the fifth best last year. It's worth mentioning again that Williams and Brown both signed for over $100,000 above their slot values. That has been a theme for second and third round picks thus far.

Williams is very similar to Kloffenstein: A projectable high school arm with a good frame. Brown is one of the fastest players in the minors, and he could be a lead-off hitter if he develops his hit tool. Robertson and Morris have appeared on some top-30 prospect lists already.

TAKEAWAYS

One more time for the people in the back: It's too early to judge these picks. Come back in five years when we know if Pearson and Manoah panned out or not. However, it appears Sanders did his best work in the first five rounds, which is good news considering this will be an abbreviated draft.

The Blue Jays weren't afraid to take risks when it came to pitchers, whether it meant going overslot for projectable high school arms, like Kloffenstein and Williams, or college arms who had just broken out, like Pearson and Manoah. The Pirates are in desparate need of some impact pitching prospects, and that change in mentality could be just what they need.