Kovacevic: Twenty ways 2020 can be ... predictable?

Much as I'll always recall March 12 as the day this coronavirus crisis closed up civilization, I'd be remiss if I didn't equally recall May 19 as the day the commonwealth's governor called out a quarterback for getting a haircut.

I mean, really, what's surprising anymore?

We're currently subsisting in a country, in the sporting context alone, where Roger Goodell's been reborn an American hero, where Major League Baseball owners finally found the fortitude to push forth a salary cap, where the NHL still might conduct its Stanley Cup playoffs with a 24-team tournament in some Saskatchewan or other, where Pitt's petrified of facing Duquesne in basketball, where the absence of participatory golf became the No. 1 public complaint, where ESPN just paid a bundle to air South Korean ball in the middle of the night, where the Belmont Stakes will baffle even the horses by leading off the Triple Crown ... and I'm barely scratching the chaotic surface.

The only thing crazier would be to try to predict what might come next in 2020, right?

Well, OK, since you asked nicely, here are 20 such possibilities, all of which undoubtedly will be applauded once dissected with 20/20 hindsight ...



1. We'll have sports.

Gutsy start, I know, but the rest of the list won't work without it.

By mid-June, the NHL's training camps will be underway, as will baseball's second spring trainings. Each will require two weeks and change, and each will be preceded by staggered run-ups to allow for extra skating and pitching, respectively. Those facets can't be achieved in a few days. They'll need a ramp, and they'll get it, beginning with the gradual reopening of team facilities well before formal camps.

From there, a Fourth of July launch of actual games sure sounds like a fine fit. In times of crisis, we as Americans -- as with most sovereign nations -- have leaned hard on patriotism and, within that, on sports. It'll be a blast.

2. Yeah, baseball, too.

They're neither that dumb, nor that obtuse. The baseball world's as myopic as it gets in sports, but even the most self-centered owners, executives or players are aware that this beautiful game, one that's been showing its wrinkles for years now, can't afford to infuriate their own fans as well as casual fans by skipping a year because they couldn't split up billions of dollars.

It's the owners who'll cave. Mostly. The players will agree to some sort of concession -- service time, international draft, one of the staples -- but the owners will work out a deferment plan to pay everyone Bobby Bonilla-style.

3. In fact, they'll go first.

Meaning baseball. Meaning the Pirates, to boot, because I'm envisioning opening day in Cincinnati for a second consecutive year. The Reds always open at home, of course, following tradition of baseball's oldest franchise, and sharing a division with the Pirates, plus the proximity, makes that logical.

The Fourth of July falls on a Saturday, so let's go for July 2 to respect Cincinnati's special place, parade and all, after which all other games begin on Friday the 3rd.

Chris Archer vs. Luis Castillo.

(Or everyone vs. Derek Dietrich, depending on the viewpoint.)

4. A trash can will be banged.

Oh, it might not happen in Houston. But there's no way, even in empty ballparks, that some of the Astros' more embittered opponents will resist the urge to pound out some taunting from a dugout tunnel. And it'll be easier than ever to hear, thanks to the booing the cheaters will now be spared.

Good. Coronavirus lowered the volume on sports' greatest scandal, but it'd be wonderful to see the no-mercy level cranked right back up.

5. Gary Bettman will emerge.

From under his desk, to be specific. And when he does, he'll check to see what Goodell's doing with the NFL, then what Adam Silver's doing with the NBA, then whatever the Rakuten Monkeys are doing in Taiwanese baseball, then probably touch base with Colin Campbell or Brian Burke ... then maybe, maybe make up his mind about something, anything related to the NHL.

When he does, the first order of business will be a handful of games for seeding purposes, basically just glorified exhibitions. After which the 24-team tournament -- with best-of-seven formats for the rounds that count -- can commence.

The Penguins' first opponent, presuming an alignment of 1-vs.-12, 2-vs.-11 and so forth?

Yep. Blue Jackets. The team they'd been set to face the day of the shutdown.

6. Upsets will be gross.

No, I can't see the 12th-seeded Canadiens knocking off the Bruins. But then, Carey Price does still cash his checks in Montreal. And I also couldn't see the top-seeded Lightning being swept by a franchise that had never won a playoff series, the Blue Jackets.

Upsets are common in normal years. And as we've seen already, this isn't one of those.

Add to that the unprecedented pre-playoff layoff, and it'd be fair to assume that the only upset in this equation would be no upsets at all. The East's other three teams added to the standard field are all prime: The Panthers have high-end skill up front. The Rangers were among the league's hottest teams before the shutdown. The Islanders ... hey.

I'm not feeling any of the bonus participants in the West, except maybe the Canucks, but there'll be plenty enough in total to cause fans to complain about undeserving teams advancing.

7. The Lightning will win.

In six over the Avalanche.

No one wants to hear that. And again, based on last summer, this prediction is just plain stupid. But man, the scope of Tampa Bay's skill, depth, goaltending, everything is obscene. Which will only be doubly obvious when they're at full throttle.

Conn Smythe: Victor Hedman. (Because he won't have Evgeni Malkin turning him inside out.)

8. Goodell will do as he pleases.

Meaning everything on this list ...



... and then some.

That's how the NFL's behaved from the outset of this crisis, and there's no reason to believe anything other than that the Steelers and Cowboys will open up real football as scheduled in Canton, Ohio, whether there are fans or not. And that all else will follow accordingly.

Our country's been patient with some things, impatient with others, but taking away football won't fly. Hate to oversimplify or, worse, trivialize a very real pandemic that's killing very real people by the tens of thousands. But I'll remind this isn't a wish list. It's predictions. And there's no part of me that can foresee life without football, particularly not that far away. As we've experienced, a lot can change in two-plus months.

9. Paxton for mayor.

In that same exhibition, Paxton Lynch will complete 10 of 12 passes for 110 yards and two touchdowns. Devlin 'Duck' Hodges will complete 9 of 12 passes for 109 yards and one touchdown. At which point the populace will demand Duck's head on a platter.

Within that, the top story on all sportscasts will be vivid dissections of each of the half-dozen sideline tosses Ben Roethlisberger makes in warmups.

10. Ben will be fine.

He really will.

Freshly and legally shorn, too.

And the fans will be absolutely giddy over that ... right up until his first 10 targets of the season opener are all aimed at Ryan Switzer.

11. A sweep of September.

The Steelers will beat the Giants, Broncos and whatever Bill O'Brien's left of the Texans to start the season 3-0. This, coupled with the Ravens starting 1-2 -- they open with the Browns, Texans and Chiefs -- once again has those same fans even giddier.

But next for the Steelers comes an October against the Titans, Eagles, Browns and Ravens and ... hm, my dollar-store crystal ball's suddenly taken on some fog. I'll have to get back to you on this.

12. The Pirates will contend.

Hang on. I'll wait for you to catch your breath. (Or cancel the subscription, whichever comes first.)

See, here's the deal: This was a competitive team in 2019. In fact, this time a year ago, we were all singing about how they battled, how they pitched better than expected and, if you'll recall, how Josh Bell was Willie Stargell reincarnated. And by the time they got to the All-Star break, they were within a weekend's worth of wins of first place.

Then, their depth was challenged.

Then, the fan base saw laid bare what I'd been reporting for years: They had no depth.

Then, Bob Nutting fired everyone.

Well, other than those who were fired, it's essentially the same team minus Starling Marte and Felipe Vazquez. I'd be the last to dismiss the impact of those two on the field, but it's still two of 25. And just as I wouldn't dismiss those two, I also wouldn't dismiss the overwhelmingly upbeat sentiment I felt in Bradenton this spring about Derek Shelton and his new staff, specifically pitching coach Oscar Marin.

Now, factor in playing only 82 or even 100 games, then the lighter competition within Central-only opponents, then the DH to maybe help balance out a lineup in desperate need of bop at the bottom, and the depth might not matter at all.

13. The Pirates will lay off a vendor.

A part-timer. Who works every other Saturday.

And by then, the Steelers and Penguins could've laid off their entire staffs, from ownership on down, and the Pirates laying off that lone hot dog salesman will still be all the buzz on social media and talk shows, with the salesman himself lined up as special guest hour after hour.

14. Bryan Reynolds will be better.

Told me so himself.

"I've definitely got room to improve," he told me in Bradenton, referring back to a remarkable .314/.377/.503 rookie year that makes such a claim seem implausible. "There's so much to my game I haven't figured out yet. I'm learning every day. Hitting. Fielding. Running the bases. Everything."

I've literally no precedent to doubt the kid. And so, I'll see that he'll become such a prominent figure within Pittsburgh's baseball fandom that ... people might actually recognize him strolling through Market Square.

15. Pitt-Duquesne exposed.

Heck, I might make this one happen myself. Because from what I've heard, this odd rift between Pitt and Duquesne that's led to the cancellation of the City Game two years in a row now is emanating from a level far above both athletic directors.

To be clear: It's a terrible look for Pitt, principally. To pretend the game doesn't matter in local basketball is embarrassing enough, but to withdraw from a verbal, public commitment to renew the rivalry in 2020 reeks of a lack of professionalism. This is as one-sided as it gets on that front alone.

But ...

I've been told in the past week that it's bigger presences at both institutions, from influential donors at Pitt who can't stomach the idea of being second anything to another program in town even for a day, to one or two obstinate figures way high up in Old Main, Duquesne's actual school administration. And the mix between those has been toxic.

This explains a lot, by the way. Jeff Capel wouldn't duck anything, and I haven't sensed that from Heather Lyke, either. Someone else is doing this and, to repeat, it's a terrible look for Pitt regardless of what they don't like about Duquesne.

16. Jake will be 'unbelievable.'

The Penguins' shutdown blessing will come, of course, in the form of Jake Guentzel's welcome return for the playoffs, one that was far from certain beforehand. And when it does, he'll be back with Sidney Crosby -- that's not a prediction, but right from Mike Sullivan to Dave Molinari last week -- and with Jason Zucker, a new acquisition who upon arrival seemed to fit better with Sullivan's system than most of his mates.

I don't know if Guentzel's a very good or great player yet, but leaning toward the former feels safer. Although he makes Crosby a better player as much as vice versa these days, one still can't be sure.

Until a truly great playoff.

Sure, he had the monster series and the four-goal game in Philly a couple years back, but all the stars are aligned -- at least if his shoulder is -- for him to take advantage of the freshest legs anywhere, as well as ideal circumstances.

17. Tristan Jarry won't play.

Not a solitary minute of the playoffs.

The owner of the NHL's eighth-best save percentage, .921, will have as much a chance of starting as you or me once Sullivan stands by Matt Murray, same as he always has. And in fairness, Murray's regularly rewarded that faith, not least of which was in the form of two rings. He might again, too, and I'd be surprised if he didn't.

But that won't alter the broader dynamic that the goaltender who very likely represents the franchise's future -- Murray's not getting any long-term extension here -- and the one who was the better of the duo in 2019-20 ... will sit and watch.

It'll be weird, for sure.

18. Diontae >>> JuJu.

All eyes will be on JuJu Smith-Schuster, just as he likes it. A lot of other eyes will be on Chase Claypool, the Steelers' top pick in the NFL Draft. And probably next down on that list will be the twin tight ends, Eric Ebron and Vance McDonald.

Not mine. When it comes to picking the Steelers' premier receiver, the one primed to make the biggest impact in 2020, I'm all about Diontae Johnson.

He already was that in 2019, and the fact that he was that by an uncomfortably large margin shouldn't sway any judgment. Truth is, he was first, James Washington was down a ways at second, and JuJu was a distant third. The quarterback didn't matter. The opponent didn't matter. The setting didn't matter. All Diontae did, when the ball came his way, including on kick returns, was make plays.

I don't go as far as some inside the organization who equate his very early promise with that of a certain departed superstar, but I also won't downplay the exceptional future in front of him. And just wait till Ben starts taking advantage of all that separation he creates.

19. No championships.

Not in this calendar year, anyway, though I'll remind that the Super Bowl won't kick off until 2021, and leaving the Steelers off any contention list is a clear mistake.

But that doesn't mean there won't be fun. All three teams will contend, with the Pirates' definition obviously being different. The Penguins are capable of making a deep run, maybe more, provided Murray can be what Sullivan hopes. The Steelers are even more capable, in my eyes, as they'll walk into their opener with the NFL's most dangerous defense, as well as an offense that'll have a lot more than a returning franchise quarterback. Forecasting glory for either, though, feels excessively premature.

Sorry!

I did say I'm awful at predictions, right?

If not, I predict I won't do that at all in this column.

20. We'll get there.

We actually will. If we get leadership at all levels a whole hell of a lot smarter than what we've witnessed to date.

You know, a cut above.