What'd happen to Pirates' roster if no season?

Originally, Major League Baseball hoped to have an agreement with the players association in place for how to compensate players for the 2020 season by June 1.

Well, it's June 1, and there is virtually no chance a deal is going to be reached today.

Now that doesn't mean the season is cancelled. As long as the two sides are negotiating, there is still hope. If they get a deal done this week, MLB can stick to its original plan of restarting spring training around June 10 and then opening the season on July 4. But right now, it's fair to be worried if there will be a season.

The ramifications of failing to play a season because of a labor dispute are almost incalculable. It took years for the game to recover from the 1994-95 players strike, and that only happened because of a steroid boom and plenty of teams getting a new stadium. Those aren't options in 2020. It would also greatly impact players, too, as young players would miss out on a year of development and everyone would go roughly 16 or 17 months with only a couple weeks of spring training baseball being their only competitive play. Players who missed most or all of 2019 with injuries, like Chad Kuhl and Edgar Santana, would go over two years without competing.

One thing that is guaranteed is players will get credited for service time for 2020, regardless of if there is a season or not. That was a part of the deal both sides struck in late March. In fact, it was the most important thing to the players in those negotiations.

“Service time was something that thought could set us back, as players, for not just this year, next year, not just for a couple years," Pirates union rep Jameson Taillon said in an interview shortly after that March deal was struck. "We thought it was something could really set us back for the foreseeable future.

"We weren’t really willing to come off of our stance there."

If there is no season, players on active rosters will receive the same amount of service time in 2020 that they earned in 2019. If there is a season, the service time calculations will be prorated. For example, the MLB season is 183 days long, and a full service year is 172 days. If the regular season is 91 days long, then players would have to be on the roster for at least 86 days to get credit for a full year.

For many, this agreement means they will get credit for a full year, meaning they will be one year closer to free agency. To name a few Pirates players this applies to: Josh Bell, Kevin Newman, Joe Musgrove, Trevor Williams and Adam Frazier.



Of the players currently on the 40-man roster, just two are scheduled to be free agents at the end of the year: center fielder Jarrod Dyson, who signed a one-year deal back in February, and closer Keone Kela.

Of the two, Kela would be the bigger loss. Dyson is a strong defender and base runner and looked poised to be a much-needed veteran presence in the clubhouse, but he was only on the team a couple weeks before the shutdown. He also was brought in to hold down the fort in center until one of the club's prospects -- like Travis Swaggerty or Jared Oliva -- was ready, or the team acquired a long-term option.

Kela, on the other hand, was a prime player for a club that had not quite begun a full rebuild. If the team was competitive, he could have been their closer. If they struggled, he could be flipped at the trade deadline for a prospect. Even if there is a season and trades in 2020, it doesn't seem likely that a relief pitcher would fetch much in return, especially if it is only for about a month or so.

Chris Archer and Gregory Polanco would have their contracts advance one year. Polanco is set to make $11.6 million in 2021. It is the final guaranteed year of his contract, with two options remaining. Archer has an $11 million option for 2021. The club could also exercise a $250,000 buyout instead.

Some Pirates players will not get credit for a full year because they were not on the Major-League roster for at least 172 days, which is considered a full service year. For players like Bryan Reynolds, Jacob Stallings and Richard Rodriguez, who spent most of last year in the majors, that will have little impact. They will receive enough service time to roll over to a new year. In Reynolds' and Stallings' case, they should still be super-two eligible, meaning they would go through arbitration four years rather than three. Stallings would go through arbitration a first time in 2021, and Reynolds the year after that.

Colin Moran, Jose Osuna, JT Riddle, Steven Brault, Kyle Crick, Chris Stratton and Nick Burdi would also become arbitration-eligible for the first time next offseason. The Pirates already have 10 players under arbitration control for 2021: Bell, Musgrove, Williams, Frazier, Taillon, Kuhl, Erik Gonzalez, Luke Maile, Guillermo Heredia and Michael Feliz. With over half of the roster in arbitration -- not to mention any veterans with guaranteed contracts like Archer, Polanco and any potential free agents -- the payroll would escalate quickly.

In addition to a rising payroll, the Pirates could face tough roster decisions. General manager Ben Cherington inherited a last place team, but they were also a year removed from a winning season. Under MLB's proposed 14 team playoff rule, that 2018 club would have qualified for the postseason. It's understandable why he did not blow up the roster and start a rebuild immediatley, opting to instead revamp the coaching staff to see if the group could rebound in 2020. With most of the roster under team control for multiple years, there was logic in that risk.

However, if they lose one of those years of team control, it may force Cherington's hand to either invest in the current club or to trade players and begin a rebuild. Bell, Musgrove, Williams, Taillon and Frazier will all have two years of team control remaining, which is usually the latest teams can trade players and still get a good return. Archer would be in his final year.

As for the players whose service time would be negatively impacted if there is no season, Mitch Keller may have the most to lose. Keller was on the active roster for 59 days in 2019, meaning he would be at 118 days at the end of the year. Not only do the Pirates keep that year of team control over their top prospect, he might not even be eligible for super-two status. The Pirates would keep him at a pre-arb rate, which is usually just a little over the league minimum, and he will only go through arbitration three times, making him much cheaper in the long run. Essentially, he would hit free agency a year later with no benefit to offset it.

The Pirates' other prospects on the 40-man roster -- Ke'Bryan Hayes, Will Craig, JT Brubaker, Blake Cederlind, Cody Ponce and Oneil Cruz -- would not have their service clocks start since they have not reached the majors.

With the way the original deal was presented, it is unclear whether players on the 40-man roster who played in the majors in 2019, but are not currently on the active roster, would receive credit as well. On Mar. 20, the Pirates optioned seven players to triple-A Indianapolis, including Hayes, Santana and Cole Tucker. Relievers Geoff Hartlieb, Sam Howard and Yacksel Rios were also optioned that day, as was outfielder Jason Martin.

Of that group, Howard, Rios and Martin all spent some time in the majors last year, but not enough to roll over to a potential new year on their service clocks in 2020. Tucker spent 80 days in the majors and Hartlieb 93, meaning Tucker could potentially miss out on super-two status and Hartlieb credit for a full season. Santana was on the injured list all of 2019, but still got credit for being on the roster all year. He has the most to lose of this group.

Not playing the 2020 season will be bad for a multitude of reasons, including how it would negatively impact the Pirates' roster construction. There is still hope for 2020, but if something doesn't come together, 2021 looks to be unkind for the Pirates.