Through the process of elimination by injuries, opt-outs and positive cases of COVID-19, the Pirates should only have to make a few more cuts to get their roster down to 30 players for opening day on July 24.
But with the absences of Keone Kela and Gregory Polanco from Pirates camp, there are still serious questions about how that roster will be utilized. Who will close, and who will play right field?
On Friday, Derek Shelton was given permission by Polanco to share that he had tested positive for COVID-19. He had been working out with the team during summer camp at PNC Park through July 13, but had not attended any practices since Tuesday. We found out why Friday.
“I cannot speak highly enough about how Gregory went about it,” Shelton said during a Zoom call Friday. “He protected his teammates because he put himself in a conversation where you let us know through the protocols and the testing. He was not around anybody else. And because of that, with getting a test and finding out that that he was positive, I think it speaks to the testament of everything that we’ve talked about of how good a teammate he is.
“Unfortunately, he has tested positive, but I think this is exemplary in terms of how you handle it and, in terms of being a teammate and and not putting himself around other guys.”
On Thursday night, the Pirates finally moved Kela to the 10-day injured list for an undisclosed reason. He has not reached the field yet during summer camp. Even if he is able to now, with the start of the regular season less than a week away, it would be unlikely he could be fully prepared for the start of the regular season after being isolated in a hotel room for weeks.
So that's a lot of uncertainty. Shelton did offer another piece of news, though: Joe Musgrove will be the opening day starter. This was expected, especially after he announced Musgrove would pitch the first exhibition game Saturday against the Indians, putting him in line for the opening day start.
"It’s a big honor to be named one of the 30 guys for opening day,” Musgrove said over a Zoom call. “There’s only 30 guys in the world that get to do that every year, and to be one of them’s pretty cool. It’s something that every pitcher wants to experience at least once in their career, and being able to get it going into my fourth year, I hope I can carry it on through the rest of my career.”
Nothing is official for the rest of the rotation. Shelton has alluded to four spots in that rotation being filled, and based on who has started in summer camp, Trevor Williams, Mitch Keller and Derek Holland would seem to be the other three, possibly in that order. The idea of "piggybacking" starters, specifically Chad Kuhl and Steven Brault, also seems probable.
"We're real close to finalizing it [the rotation], but we probably won't have that for you for a couple more days," Shelton said.
So the rotation looks mostly decided. So does the roster, if you work backwards.
The Pirates invited 40 players to summer camp, including Jameson Taillon, who will not pitch in 2020 as he continues to rehab from Tommy John surgery. Hector Noesi opted out of the season on July 8. Relief pitchers Geoff Hartlieb and Miguel Del Pozo were sent to the alternate camp in Altoona, Pa. Thursday. There are also four players who are not currently working out with the team: Polanco, Kela, Blake Cederlind, who tested positive for COVID-19, and Ke'Bryan Hayes.
That leaves 32 players to choose from, since it looks doubtful that the Pirates will pull anyone from that Altoona camp for opening day.
"I would expect that the players who are in Pittsburgh right now would be the ones to make up the Opening Day roster," Ben Cherington said Wednesday. "Doesn’t mean there won’t be changes over time, but not expecting anybody who’s not currently in Pittsburgh."
By Wednesday, Polanco was already isolated from the team.
As for the final roster trim, to speculate, let's assume the Pirates do not carry three catchers, meaning John Ryan Murphy goes on the taxi squad instead. Each team needs to carry a catcher if they want to use the maximum three spots anyway, so Murphy will be around anyway. It also wouldn't hurt to have another starting pitcher stretched out in Altoona, which could be JT Brubaker.
If that happens, here's the projected roster:
Pitchers: Steven Brault, Nick Burdi, Kyle Crick, Robbie Erlin*, Michael Feliz, Geoff Hartliev, Derek Holland*, Clay Holmes, Mitch Keller, Chad Kuhl, Joe Musgrove, Dovydas Neverauskas, Richard Rodriguez, Chris Stratton, Nik Turley*, Trevor Williams
Catchers: Luke Maile, Jacob Stallings
Infielders: Josh Bell, Phillip Evans*, Adam Frazier, Erik Gonzalez, Colin Moran, Kevin Newman, Jose Osuna, JT Riddle, Cole Tucker
Outfielders: Socrates Brito*, Jarrod Dyson, Guillermo Heredia, Bryan Reynolds
This team would need five players to be added to the 40-man roster, which currently sits at 36. That would mean the Pirates would either have to leave one of those additions off -- perhaps adding Jason Martin, who is already on the 40-man, instead of Brito -- or removing another player from the roster from the Altoona camp.
Shelton expects to add an outfielder from Altoona camp for at least the exhibitions against Cleveland, meaning either Martin, Jared Oliva or Travis Swaggerty are coming to Pittsburgh. Martin is the only one of the trio to not only reach the majors, but even AAA.
Jose Osuna and JT Riddle could, and will, fill-in at right field at least on the interim, but there is a clear favorite to start.
"If it was a situation where you were certain GP [Polanco] wasn't able to start the season, Heredia would would definitely get more [time]," Shelton said. "From there, we would have to talk through it. We've had different guys we bump, different guys into the outfield for work, but really don't want to make that assumption until we get to the day before St Louis and we know what our roster is going to look like."
Heredia slashed .225/.306/.363 with five home runs and 20 RBIs last season for the Rays. He was signed this offseason, mostly for his defensive versatility to play all three outfield positions, and his ability to hit left-handers. The Pirates already have one defense-first outfielder with Jarrod Dyson in center. For the early parts of the season, it looks like there will be two.
The state of the bullpen is less clear. Kyle Crick and Richard Rodriguez have been late-inning options for the Pirates the past two seasons, and Nick Burdi has the stuff of a potential closer. All could potentially pitch the ninth inning, but they also might appear in the sixth.
Every contest in a 60-game season is going to be important, and with expanded rosters early on, Shelton and bullpen coach Justin Meccage have talked about how the Pirates could be "creative," as they both put it, with how they use relievers. That could mean using late-inning relievers in high-leverage situations earlier in games.
"I think we will probably play the leverage of the situation," Shelton said. "I'm pretty sure we won't go with one certain person. Instead of instead of having a setup or closer or whatever, we'll just play by what we feel is the best guy for each situation."
The best guy for each situation is the way to go, especially early in the season. The Pirates have the second-hardest first two weeks of the season, going based on 2019 winning percentages, in baseball. They'll play at least some of that stretch without two of their best players. It's a tough hand to be dealt, but if a 60-game season is a sprint, anything can happen over a couple weeks. Including finding a way to pitch the ninth and find someone to man right field.
