10 Thoughts: After evaluation year, Cherington needs to be more aggressive taken at PNC Park (Pirates)

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Ben Cherington and Bob Nutting.

Nearly one year after taking the reins, change is coming to Ben Cherington’s Pirates.

On Wednesday, Cherington said that a “reorganization” is coming to player development after the organization’s evaluation year. He knew he couldn’t make widespread changes to the front office last year because he was hired in November and had to throw himself into the managerial search first. By the time that was done, there was only about a week or so until the Winter Meetings, and most people looking for work or a new opportunity had found teams. So he decided to see what he inherited instead.

“A lot of our focus this year has been: What do we need to do?” Cherington said during a call with local reporters Wednesday afternoon. “Where are the opportunities to get better, and who is here already that is going to help us do that? And are there people who have a real skill set and strength but maybe we just see a better fit for? So we’re going through that now.”

He took a similar approach with the major-league roster. With the exception of the Starling Marte trade, the Pirates returned the majority of their player core from 2019. That core stayed intact through the 2020 trade deadline too, even though Cherington made it clear that no one was off the table.

“For maybe a variety of reasons, we just didn’t find opportunities… that we felt really moved the Pirates forward,” Cherington said Aug. 31 after the deadline had passed. “There’ll be lots more opportunities to do that, and we’d much rather hold than make trades that we’re not confident in that later come back and bite us. We know that acquisition will be important. That’ll happen in different kinds of ways over time. This won’t be the last chance.”

Cherington has to bring young, impact talent into the organization. So far, when he has made moves, they have been very encouraging. Brennan Malone and Liover Peguero, both acquired in the Marte trade, are top 10 prospects. Baseball America praised their draft haul, which included one of the best hitters available, Nick Gonzales.

But a handful of players isn’t going to be enough. The front office is being shaken up. It’s time to make changes to the roster, too.

Of course Cherington shouldn’t make a trade just for the sake of making a trade, but at some point, he’s going to have to take the plunge and start making this roster his own. If nothing else, he needs to be more aggressive to move players who are nearing free agency.

Josh Bell, Adam Frazier, Joe Musgrove, Trevor Williams, and Chad Kuhl all have two years of arbitration control remaining. Steven Brault, Colin Moran and Richard Rodriguez are all entering arbitration. The less team control the Pirates have to offer, the lower their trade value will likely be. So even though some of these players struggled in 2020, this still might be the best chance to maximize a return for them.

But that return still might not be as much as Cherington wants, or at least wanted last offseason or at the deadline. On Wednesday, I asked his mindset had changed at all, and if it’s possible that an offer that wasn’t considered enough to move a guy in August would be enough now.

"I think we definitely have to be ready for opportunities, and we have to connect those opportunities back to what we are trying to do, which is build a winning team,” Cherington responded. “What gives us the best chance to acquire the abundance of talent we need to build a winning team? So we need to be absolutely prepared for that, those opportunities as they come. Time will tell if those come this offseason, but we'll know certainly if they do.”

I want to focus on that last sentence, about if the opportunities come this offseason, because we don’t know how many opportunities will present themselves in 2021.

The relationship between the players and owners is its most contentious since the 1994-1995 strike. There was a threat of a lockout during the last set of negotiations in 2016, and there wasn’t nearly as much bad blood as there is now. Teams can’t operate under the assumption that there will be a lockout or strike after 2021, but they can’t assume it will be a normal offseason either.

Cherington’s first year as general manager was filled with unforeseen challenges, and the fallout could apply to this and next offseason, too. This is a very important winter for him. If he doesn’t make any moves, he is putting a lot of faith that the 2021 offseason will operate normally. There’s no guarantee that will happen.

The Pirates can’t let players walk without getting anything in return, like Chris Archer and Keone Kela are. Neal Huntington gave up five players for them -- Austin Meadows, Tyler Glasnow, Shane Baz, Taylor Hearn and Sherten Apostel -- and they still finished last twice.

Cherington didn’t get to inherit those prospects, but he was given some trade chips. He can’t let the organization lose them for nothing too.

• Between Musgrove, Williams, Kuhl and Brault, the one that would be the easiest to part with is Williams. His 42 home runs allowed over the past two years are the second most in the National League, topped only my Madison Bumgarner at 43, and his 5.60 ERA is the highest out of anyone with at least 200 innings pitched in the same time frame.

He’s a serious non-tender candidate, with him due to receive about $4 million in arbitration. He may have some trade value for a team like the Blue Jays, who don’t have much starting pitching in line for next year or 2022, but even then, he would bring back a fringe prospect at best.

Odds are there’s a decent chance Williams has made his last start as a Pirate.

“We've had some conversations but nothing as far as what does it [my future with the Pirates] look like,” Williams said in late September. “I trust in them. I trust in these guys. And you know, I felt like they've trusted me as well. It's something that's out of my control.”

• Of the other three starters mentioned, I have to imagine Musgrove is the most likely to be dealt, especially since Cherington had to actually reach out to him after the trade deadline to talk about the rumors surrounding him. He probably has the most trade value of anyone in the rotation, but if his strong finish is any indication, he has another gear. Perhaps it's better to hang on to him a little longer to see if he can replicate that success.

If I was to project the 2021 rotation, I'd say Jameson Taillon, Mitch Keller, Kuhl, Brault and JT Brubaker, with Cody Ponce and Cody Bolton as depth in class AAA. If Taillon is not going to start, or if the Pirates would rather keep Brubaker as depth to start, there could be a spot for Musgrove, but at this point, the rotation would probably benefit from some new blood.

• I didn’t include Archer in the starting pitcher mix because I can’t really see a scenario where the Pirates pick up his 2021 club option, which is valued at $11 million. Pitchers don’t exactly have a great track record coming back from thoracic outlet syndrome surgeries, and that’s a decent chunk of change for someone who missed all of 2020 and wasn’t particularly good in 2019.

The closest comp I can come with for Archer's potential market is Matt Harvey during the 2018 offseason, where he ended up signing a one-year, $11 million contract with the Angels. The difference is Harvey was two years removed from his TOS surgery rather than five months, and he had put together a decent run with the Reds where he looked to be a close to average starter. And again, Harvey signed in free agency, meaning the Angels did not have to give up a player to acquire him.

And it’s worth noting that Harvey stunk and the Angels pulled the plug after just a dozen starts. That was almost $1 million an outing for a pitcher who had a 7.09 ERA.

Archer will find a home in 2021. It doesn’t look like it will be in Pittsburgh.

• Rodriguez did an admirable job filling in as the Pirates’ closer for most of the season, not allowing a run in September while striking out 16 of his 38 batters faced (42.1%).

With Kela set to hit free agency, Nick Burdi’s future in question due to yet another arm injury and Kyle Crick suffering from a shoulder ailment and a drastic drop in velocity, the closer job would appear to be Rodriguez’s if he comes back next season. Then again, he probably would be more valuable to the organization in the long run as a trade chip.

Doing some very rough, back of the envelope math, I’m eyeballing that Rodriguez will make about $12 million in salary over his three arbitration years. If Cherington was able to market him as being worth 1 WAR each of the next three years, and the going rate for one WAR remains $9 million on the open market, that would be about $27 million in total value and $15 million in surplus value. Going based on FanGraphs’ surplus value model, that would theoretically bring back a prospect who is just outside the top 100 list. Not a bad get for a reliever.

Of course, that is assuming the offseason markets aren’t completely stagnant. I don’t think there will be a ton of money thrown around this winter, but fans being allowed to attend the league championship and World Series bodes very well for fans in the stands in 2021. Odds are it would be in a limited capacity, but that would still be a huge boost.

• A quick detour: It’s not a postseason bubble if you’re letting 11,500 fans into it. Major League Baseball just liked how “bubble” sounded because the NHL and NBA were praised for how they conducted their postseasons, and they wanted to pretend that they were just as innovative.

• Back to trades. I honestly can’t get a read on what Frazier could potentially bring back in a deal. Most analytics grade him as a terrific defensive second baseman, and he showed this year that he could still play the outfield in a pinch.

But how will clubs value his bat? In his career, he has a dead-average 100 OPS+. This past season, he slashed just .230/.297/.364, though he did finish strong. He’s always been a streaky hitter, and one that tends to do better as the season goes on and he makes more adjustments. Will teams believe that will happen again and take the plunge? If so, two years of control of an average hitter and gold glove nominee could bring some decent prospects. Maybe even some guys at the back end of a club’s top 10 list.

• Cherington reaffirmed Wednesday, as the club has all year, that Cole Tucker will return to the infield after being used almost exclusively in the outfield in 2020. However he is used, he’s going to have to hit more to justify receiving playing time at any position. A .220/.252/.275 slash line is just not going to cut it, and the peripherals paint an even bleaker picture.

Out of the 274 hitters who had at least 75 batted balls last season, Tucker’s 82.4 mph average exit velocity was the eighth worst. Out of the 308 hitters who had at least 100 plate appearances, his expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) – which is based on quality of contact and how often a batter a walks and strikes out – was the worst.

In 2019, he had a hard time catching up to major-league heat, but he did pretty well against breaking pitches. This year he still had the same problem with fastballs, but couldn’t hit sliders or curves. You have to wonder how much of this is due to the same timing problems that plagued most of the club’s hitters this season, and if it is reversible.

• I wouldn’t be shocked if the club non-tendered three of its four catchers on the roster. Andrew Susac has already been outrighted, which isn’t a surprise seeing how he was added to the roster until the last day of the season.

As for John Ryan Murphy and Luke Maile, neither was in demand last offseason and didn’t do anything to bolster their status within the organization. They could almost certainly sign either catcher again on a minor-league deal if they non-tender them, but both are just stopgap backstops right now. The club needs to find and develop a catcher for the future at some point. They won’t find one on the free agent market.

• It’s time to rebuild. Not just build, as Cherington likes to say. Next year’s team could finish with a better record through internal improvements, like a full season of Ke’Bryan Hayes and bounce back years for guys like Bryan Reynolds and Kevin Newman. But this team is not a contender right now. If Cherington plays his cards right, they could be in 2023.



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