It was a perfect Pittsburgh August afternoon when a black Chevy Suburban rolled to PNC Park. After it stopped by the Bill Mazeroski statue by the right field game, the back door opened and out jumped Chris Archer, decked out in a white Antonio Brown Steelers jersey he picked up at the Pittsburgh international airport.
There's a joke somewhere in that jersey choice, looking back on it.
Less than 24 hours prior, the Pirates shocked the baseball world by acquiring Archer in a deadline deal for the ages. The Rays got Austin Meadows, Tyler Glasnow and a player to be named later, which turned out to be Shane Baz, the Pirates' first-round pick in 2017. The Pirates got Archer, the front of the line pitcher the rotation needed and, ideally, the piece to get them back into the postseason.
We know how the story goes from there. Try to ignore that for a moment and remember how you felt the first time you saw this:
New arrival.#LetsGoBucs pic.twitter.com/Faoul3kwSa
— Pirates (@Pirates) August 1, 2018
After years of complaining that the Pirates never "went for it," they got their guy. They were all in. The Pirates were going to be relevant nationally again.
They lost the bet. Big time.
Not only did Archer fail to live up to the hype, recording a 6-12 record with a 4.92 ERA over his 33 starts with the Pirates, Meadows and Glasnow became key players for a Rays team that made the playoffs and 2019 and then won the American League pennant in 2020. The Pirates, on the other hand, finished in last both seasons.
The trade was a disaster. That's why everyone involved in it has since been fired.
On Saturday, Archer's time with the Pirates came to a close when the team declined an $11 million club option for 2021. It closed the book on the trade, at least on their end. It's already regarded as one of the worst trades in franchise history, if not the worst.
Let's figure out exactly how bad it was. One last, good, long look at the misfire that wasted years of development for some highly-touted prospects. We'll be using surplus value -- or the "profit" between how much a player was paid vs. how much they produced -- to calculate how much each player was worth.
The generally accepted rate for one win above replacement (WAR) on the open market is $9 million (well, it was before COVID-19). If you sign a 2 WAR player for $10 million, the surplus value is $8 million. If it’s a 0.5 WAR player at $10 million, then the “surplus” value is -$5.5 million. As far as surplus value goes, trading a 4 WAR player who makes $20 million for a 2 WAR player making $2 million is an even deal since the SV is $16 million each.
Of course, this is not the only way to evaluate trades. If a club acquires a player that helps get them over the hump or win a World Series, people aren’t going to break out a calculator to see if it was a good deal in retrospect. But in terms of building the framework for a deal, this is a good tool, especially when it's a trade between two small market or low payroll teams.
Which is why the Archer trade actually happened. At the time of the deal, Meadows, Glasnow and Baz had a lot of future value, but Archer was a productive pitcher on a very team-friendly deal with up to three more years of control. That leads to a ton of potential surplus value. That’s why, by Craig Edwards of FanGraphs’ calculations, it was a pretty even deal when the trade was consummated.
Moral of the story: Never judge a trade on the day it happens.
Archer didn't end up being a bargain. He was worth 1.5 fWAR as a Pirate and was paid a little more than $13 million. His surplus value was...zero. The Pirates got what they paid for.
The Rays on the other hand? Oh boy.
Since becoming a Ray, Glasnow has been worth 4 fWAR ($36 million in value) while being paid approximately $1.5 million. Meadows has been worth 3.8 fWAR ($34.2 million) while being paid about $1 million. They have combined to already provide the Rays $67.5 million in surplus value. In Edwards' examination of the trade in 2018, the Rays acquired a projected $68 million in future surplus value. The trio has already hit that prediction, and they have years to just run up the score. One hasn't even reached the majors.
Let's look a little into the future a bit. Going by ZiPS' projections, Glasnow and Meadows are forecasted to be worth a combined 6 fWAR in 2021. MLB Trade Rumors' arbitration algorithm has Glasnow set to make about $3 million next year, and Meadows is still pre-arb. Let's keep the math simple and say they make a combined $4 million. That's still a surplus value of $50 million in one season. That would be a humongous blow for any club, let alone one that seems positioned to be in a rebuild.
How about 2022? Again, ZiPS has the duo being worth 6 WAR. Meadows will be arbitration eligible this year, and doing some back of the envelop math, he would get about $4 or $5 million his first time through the process. Glasnow would get somewhere around $8 million, so we're once again looking at a surplus value north of $40 million. ZiPS' projections don't go further than 2022, and it's probably for the best. Knowing the Rays, they would probably be trying to trade these players around this time anyway.
By that point, it would be Baz's time to shine. I won't dive into ZiPS or any other projections around him since he hasn't reached the majors. FanGraphs currently ranks him as the 110th best prospect in baseball, and going based on their research, a pitcher at about that level has a future value of about $15 million. One last kick in the ribs.
If Meadows, Glasnow and Baz retired today, this would already be a serious contender of the worst trade in franchise history. Going based on very educated projections, the Rays are in position to receive another $100 million in player value in the future from those three. It's management like this that made them the best team in the American League.
As for the Pirates, there's nothing they really can do. Archer is leaving. The people who made the trade were fired. Perhaps the deal would be a little easier to stomach had the Pirates made the playoffs in 2018. Or if Archer at least pitched to his potential. Or if he had any trade value whatsoever, so they could at least salvage something in return.
The Pirates are entering a rebuild, whether or not Ben Cherington wants to refer to it as one. The Archer trade is going to make that rebuilding process a little longer.
