Following the 2019-2020 offseason where Major League Baseball teams signed players to a record number of big contracts, this winter is looking to be much, much quieter.
The COVID-19 pandemic is mostly to blame for that, as teams have been trying to shed costs after going through their regular seasons without fans in the stands.
“I think every team was impacted,” Ben Cherington was saying Monday. “The Pirates were certainly one of those that were impacted. Every team is probably likely to continue to be impacted, in all likelihood, going into 2021. We just don’t know yet what that means in terms of not only what our payroll looks like for 2021, but also what opportunities will come our way and be there for us this offseason. We just don’t know yet. We need some more time.”
Many of the cuts across the league have been in front offices, but in the early going of the offseason, teams have also been reluctant to pick up club options on players. That includes the Pirates, who declined an $11 million option on Chris Archer and bought him out Saturday.
“It’s just as simple as, given right now and a lot to learn still in the offseason about where the market goes and where Chris is right right now in his recovery, we just didn’t feel we could commit to that level of salary at this point in the calendar for 2021,” Cherington said.
In a typical offseason, one year of Archer at that rate should have generated at least some trade interest, even when considering he missed all of last season after undergoing surgery to treat his thoracic outlet syndrome. But the general belief is that there will be a record number of non-tenders this winter, meaning the free agent market will be more crowded with players willing to take less.
This could be a sign of bad things to come for the Pirates, who finished with the worst record in the majors in 2020 and are positioned to listen to teams on most players for a potential trade. If a team could acquire a comparable player to someone they like on the Pirates for the same salary, why would they give up a prospect to make a trade instead?
Cherington believes teams will still have the same approach as they would during a normal offseason: They’ll see where they want to improve, evaluate the free-agent and trade markets and explore the moves that make sense. It just would be harder to predict and may take a little longer for trade interest to reach the Pirates.
"Whatever happens in free agency, I’d expect that if there are players that really fit well for other teams, no matter what’s happening in free agency, that we’ll get calls on those players," Cherington said. "We just have to be prepared for that. In the meantime, we’re going to be controlling our part just by pursuing opportunities that we think make sense for us both in trade and free agency.”
For the free agent market, Cherington stressed that the Pirates are focusing on acquiring and developing young talent, but that he believes there will be opportunities in free agency to make the team better. However, it doesn’t sound like the Pirates are in a position to make a splash on the market, not necessarily because of payroll, but because of their record.
“We need to focus on… how do we build a stronger, more talented roster that gives us a chance to get into a more sustainable period of winning?” Cherington said. “Usually, that’s through acquisition and development of younger players, talented players and then bringing them into their primes in the major leagues. Most often, in free agency, that’s not the kind of player that’s available. Free agency is used as part of a team-building process, for sure, and it’s an important part of the team-building process, but it depends on where you are in your build.”
If free agency doesn't yield much, how about locking up some players already on the roster long-term instead?
While nothing came of it last spring, the Pirates were in talks with several players back in February and early March about signing extensions that could keep them in Pittsburgh for years to come. Those talks ultimately fell apart because of the pandemic and the shutdown, but could reopen in 2021. If they do, it would likely be after the new year and around spring training. That’s when most contracts for players with less than six years of service time are signed, which can lead to discussions for multi-year deals.
For a team looking to build, there would be obvious benefits to locking some players up for the long-term.
“What I do know is we want to have an open door for those kinds of conversations,” Cherington said.
• The Pirates ultimately decided not to keep Archer for $11 million. That doesn't necessarily mean he has made his last start as a Pirate.
"I think our relationship with Chris is in a good enough spot where we can keep that door cracked," Cherington said. "Certainly, he’ll want to listen and see what’s out there."
Cherington commented that Archer is recovering well from his TOS surgery and that he thinks he'll pitch in the majors again. If his market never evolves, it could set up a reunion with the Pirates. If the Pirates do end up trading other starters like Joe Musgrove or Trevor Williams, it could create a more clear opportunity for him back with the Pirates.
• Speaking of pitchers the Pirates cut this week, Cherington said there is "mutual interest" between Dovydas Neveruaskas and a team in Asia, which partially factored in to why he was designated for assignment Sunday. He did not specify if it was the Japanese NPB, the Korean KBO or another league.
After four years, it seems that the Pirates are set to cut all ties to a player who was once one of the more intriguing pitchers in the farm system.
"He just hadn't gotten to a point yet where he really figured out how to use the fastball effectively at the major league level, even though the velocity's good," Cherington said.
• The decision to designate Nick Burdi for assignment was because he will not pitch in 2021 after undergoing a second Tommy John surgery last month. Cherington expressed interest in reuniting with him -- though it would likely have to be under a minor-league contract -- and that despite his lengthy injury history, there is still hope for him to succeed in the majors.
"There are plenty of examples of guys who have gone through that and pitched really well in the major leagues. I think Nick is definitely capable of that," Cherington said. "He’s obviously got really good stuff. He’s an incredibly hard worker. He’s really smart. He’s learning all the time. You add all that stuff up, and as much as it’s been frustrating for him to this point, I think all that gives him a chance to be a really good major-league pitcher. We’d love to continue working with him.
• Cherington had no new information on Oneil Cruz's accident in the Dominican Republic. Right now, the expectation is for him to still be in spring training in Bradenton, Fla. in February. The Pirates are hopeful he will get a chance to play some winter ball before then.
• Also heading to winter ball is Gregory Polanco, who will play in his native Dominican Republic to make up for some lost at-bats over the last two years.
The Pirates are very supportive of that decision.
"The encouraging thing is he came to us about it," Cherington said. "In our exit meeting toward the end of September, Shelty [Derek Shelton] and I sat down with him, and he was really excited about playing this winter. That made us excited, because not everybody who has been established as a major-league player and is earning the kind of money he’s making is always going to want to do that. But I think it speaks to Gregory’s desire and commitment to get better, and probably awareness also that there are things he’s got to find and improve on."
Other notable players who could be playing winter ball are Michael Feliz, Erik Gonzalez and Richard Rodriguez, though the Pirates would want to be mindful of the innings Rodriguez logs after he pitched through the whole regular season.
