Trevor Williams sat in the press conference room at PNC Park in late September, wearing his latest outing on his sleeve.
He had just allowed all six runs in a 6-5 loss to the Cardinals. It was his fifth straight start where he allowed at least five runs and his eighth loss in 10 outings to that point. Manager Derek Shelton said that he would remain in the rotation through the rest of the year. That didn't offer any guarantees for 2021, though.
Throughout the call, Williams’ answers were pretty similar to what they had been his past few outings. He had made some mechanical changes with pitching coach Oscar Marin, and he was liking the progress he was making there, even if it wasn’t translating to results. He was going to keep working hard to try to end his season on a high note.
Towards the end of the call, he was asked if he was worried about his future with the club. He answered candidly.
“It's something that's outside of my control,” Williams responded. “We've had some conversations but nothing as far as what does it look like. I trust in them. I trust in these guys. And you know, I felt like they've trusted me as well. It's something that's out of my control. Just take it when the offseason comes."
That time to make a decision is nearing. On Friday, the Pirates will have to decide which prospects will be added to the 40-man roster in order to protect them from the Rule 5 draft. The deadline to tender contracts in Dec. 2, but if the Pirates want to add someone, they need to cut someone from the roster too.
After struggling for most of the 2019 season, Williams’ results took another hit last year, going 2-8 with a 6.18 ERA and -1 WAR. He allowed a league-leading 15 home runs and his 1.57 WHIP was the third highest among pitchers who logged at least 50 innings.
There are expected to be a record amount of non-tenders this offseason as teams try to cut costs, and Williams is certainly a candidate to be let go. However, he is just two years removed from a terrific 2018 campaign where he had one of the greatest second halves in baseball history. For a team that is looking for ways to get better, getting Williams back on track would be better than just about any addition they could make to their 2021 major-league roster.
So what should the Pirates do with Williams?
THE CASE FOR KEEPING HIM
Let’s start with the logistical answer: You can never have too much pitching. That is even more true when half of the rotation is drawing trade interest. Joe Musgrove was very nearly dealt during the August trade deadline. Chad Kuhl was named in rumors then too, and teams are checking in on Steven Brault now.
To put it simply, there could be a lot of turnover in the rotation, and depth is important.
“Look, if we’re sitting here at the end of March and, knock on wood, we’re at a normal spring training and Shelty and Oscar are pulling their hair out because they’ve got 8-10 good options for the rotation, then I’m going to be really excited about that,” Ben Cherington said shortly after the end of the regular season. “That would be a really good outcome for us.”
If the Pirates non-tender Williams and then trade some of their other starters, they will have to go to free agency to fill out the rotation, likely with low-cost pitchers. They would be replacing Williams with a pitcher who is probably comparable to Williams, if not worse.
If they don’t end up trading any of their pitchers, arbitration contracts are only guaranteed to pay between 30 or 45 days of prorated salary, or roughly one-sixth to one-fourth of the contract. MLB Trade Rumors projects he will earn between $3.2 to $4.6 million in arbitration, with it likely being on the lower end, so the actual guarantee is only about $500,000 to $1 million. At that point, it’s not much more of a risk than if the Pirates claimed an out of options player off waivers, and Williams would certainly be better than a non-roster invitee starter option.
So carrying Williams is a low-risk move, but that’s not very valuable if the reward is low too. What are the odds he could bounce back after his disastrous 2020?
In spite of his final results, Williams still had some encouraging peripherals. His average exit velocity allowed was quite good, averaging 87.2 mph, which ranked in the 70th percentile, per Baseball Savant. His slider moved more, dropping two more inches and breaking another inch compared to last year, and batters had a very hard time barreling it up. His splits against left-handers also drastically improved, seeing his batting average allowed going from .335 in 2019 to .260 in 2020, with the OPS dropping from .952 to .746.
Williams may not have shown the same stuff or results he had in 2018, but there are some glimmers of hope in this past season. If the Pirates believe the mechanical changes he and Marin worked on could help, then it’s not outrageous to hope he can carve a spot out in the backend of the rotation. If he does well, perhaps the Pirates can flip him for a prospect at the deadline.
THE CASE FOR NON-TENDERING HIM
Let’s address the elephant in the room: The baseball has changed. It’s been proven. Major League Baseball claims they don’t know how it’s different, but home run rates have skyrocketed the last two years, and that’s after they already saw a sharp increase around 2015. It’s a big reason why baseball is becoming a “three true outcomes” league, with more and more plate appearances ending in a home run, walk or strikeout.
That’s rotten luck for a guy like Williams. He does not strike out a ton of batters or get a lot of ground balls, so he needs to trust the fly balls he allows will stay in play. Before the juiced ball, they did, with only 8% of his fly balls resulting in home runs. In 2019, that rate jumped up to 14.5%. This season, it was 24.2%. Fly balls were three times as likely to leave the yard in 2020 than they were in 2018.
The home run is Williams’ greatest challenge. Of the 42 runs he allowed this year, 23 came via the long ball. Going by his career trends, when he has struggled it has been because the ball was leaving the yard. When he has succeeded, it has stayed in play. So even though a lower percentage of his at-bats end in hard contact or a barrel, since he does not strike a lot of batters, more balls go into play and the actual number of hard-hit balls is high.
This past year, the group of hitters who hit him the hardest was right-handers. They slashed an astonishing .344/.405/.708 with 10 home runs this year. This is a radical departure from his career trends. In 2018, righties had a .681 OPS against him, and now they have a higher slugging percentage than that figure.
Anyway you cut his 2020 season, Williams finished with a 6.18 ERA. If you would rather look at his projections, he had a 6.30 FIP and 5.01 xERA. Trying to tweak his mechanics midseason had to have contributed to that some, but outside of pitching exclusively from the stretch in his final outings, those changes didn’t look very drastic.
The Pirates do not have much major-league ready starting depth in the minors, but they have to consider if they would be better off giving those starts to a younger pitcher like JT Brubaker or Cody Ponce instead. There is room for Williams to improve after back-to-back poor seasons, but if they keep him and he struggles again, they would only be hurting themselves in the long run.
