It would be hard to call the 2020 season a year for the pitchers, but it certainly wasn’t one for hitters.
While offenses still posted a healthy average of 4.65 runs per game, the league’s slugging percentage dropped 17 points, from .435 in 2019 to .418. The last time there was a larger drop between years was the 37 point decrease in slugging from 1987 (.415) to 1988 (.378). Blame it on the virus, not just for creating a long pause in the season, but for taking away in-game video, one of the most valuable tools for a hitter. Most stadium’s video rooms are small and the league determined it was too high-risk for a player and video worker to be in a small room together.
The good news is in the new reworked health and safety protocols for 2021, the players are getting their in-game video back. The bad, and unrelated, news is that the ball might not be as bouncy.
Per national reports, Major League Baseball is working to deaden the baseball for 2021. Eno Sarris reported that in an MLB memo, an independent lab found that fly balls that traveled at least 375 feet lost about a foot or two of distance with this new ball. That might not sound like a lot, but physics professor Alan Nathan found that every 3.3 feet of extra fly ball distance increases the chance of a home run by 10%.
Last year, Pirates batters hit the fewest amount of fly balls 375+ feet (86) while the pitchers gave up the sixth most fly balls that went at least that distance (114). A less bouncy baseball will probably benefit the Pirates’ pitchers more than it hurts the batters in 2021.
If this change sticks, then that next wave of Pirates pitchers could be even more impactful a couple years from now. For the hitters, director of coaching and player development John Baker is hoping to move away from the three true outcomes (walk, strikeout, home run) as the Pirates develop their prospects. It may not be as costly for them.
“I’m looking forward to bringing back some of the style of play that we may have seen in the past,” Baker said in his introductory Zoom call in November. “Counter to the three-true-outcome game, but doing it in a modern way that’s supported by data and not just a get-off-my-lawn reversion back to what feels good because we did it when we were a kid. It has to work. That’s the only rule.”
As for the rest of the league’s hitters, I believe we’ll see that the pros of getting video back outweighs the cons of the less-juiced baseball. Last year, those 375+ foot fly balls resulted in a .767 batting average, but according to data from Baseball Savant, that’s the lowest it has been in the Statcast era (2015). It’s been a homer-driven league over the past six seasons, but the juiced ball lost a little bit of its influence last year. Being able to make better in-game adjustments will lead to better swings the second or third time through the order.
And it seems unlikely that the league would purposefully bring the game back to 2014 offensive levels. They’d break out the high bouncers again before that happens.
• The seven-inning doubleheader and starting extra-innings with a runner on second rules were also extended into 2021 via the health and safety protocols.
I consider myself more of a baseball purist, so I’m not a fan, but I’m not the one playing. Players seemed to like the changes, and even Derek Shelton admitted the extra-inning rule grew on him.
“I went with a very negative attitude towards it,” Shelton said in December. “After being in some of those games — I think I got ejected in two of those games — I am a fan of it. I would prefer that we play at least one inning traditionally and then move to something [different].”
I’m still hoping these changes are just for player safety since COVID-19 messed with the 2020 season and this offseason, rather than having them be included in the next collective bargaining agreement. And obviously scrap these rules for the postseason.
• He isn’t quite ready for an opening day spot, but Travis Swaggerty could, and probably should, be in that outfield mix later this year. He needs to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason anyway, so giving him a cup of coffee in the Majors first makes sense.
This is going to be a huge year for his career as a Pirate. Right field should open up this offseason, but many believe Oneil Cruz will eventually wind up there, even if he hasn’t taken reps at the position yet. If Anthony Alford or Jared Oliva have a good year, they could emerge as the center fielder going forward. He’ll have an opportunity to establish himself in the Big Leagues, but if he doesn’t, there are other prospects coming.
• Over the last two years, the Pirates have had only one pitcher who threw a splitter: Nick Tropeano, and he was acquired just to eat innings and be an extra arm in the expanded bullpen.
They’ve picked up two guys with quality splitters this offseason -- David Bednar and Chasen Shreve. Bednar came over in the Joe Musgrove trade and is still developing as a pitcher. He’s flirting with a top 30 prospect spot. Shreve has been in the league seven years and got terrific results with his splitter last year, resulting in a whiff in 55% of swings.
This isn’t to say the Pirates are targeting splitters now -- it is only two pitchers after all -- but they had mostly avoided them for over a decade. Since the advent of league-wide pitch tracking in 2008, only 10 different Pirates pitchers have thrown a splitter, with most of them being journeyman relievers who were just passing through. Research has suggested that the pitch increases the likelihood of needing Tommy John surgery eventually, which is why teams have shied away from teaching prospects the pitch.
But if it’s a new look the bullpen can offer, either in the short-term in Shreve’s case or long-term, like Bednar, then go for it.
• I’m interested to see how James Marvel looks this spring. Talking to him last spring training, he did a lot of traveling to different baseball facilities, including the infamous Driveline, during the 2019-2020 offseason to try to find some extra velocity. He was also developing a slider so he could have another weapon to try to get right-handers out.
His ceiling isn’t as high as some of the starting pitching prospects the Pirates acquired this offseason, but he was the organization’s 2019 minor league pitcher of the year. Given the number of pitcher injuries last year, it’s reasonable to believe he could have been called up as well had it not been for a forearm strain. If he has picked up a couple ticks on the fastball, then his plus-changeup can play even better. Perhaps he makes his return to the Majors in 2021.
• Another guy I’m really intrigued by is Shea Spitzbarth, the first player taken in the second phase of the Rule 5 draft. (He does not have to make the MLB team to stay with the Pirates.)
This is a lofty comparison, but at 26, he reminds me of where Richard Rodriguez was at his age. Low 90s fastball with ideal spin, really good minor league strikeout numbers, breaking pitch that has vertical and horizontal movement. He’s been roughed up in class AAA, but he was closing games and was an All-Star for the Dodgers’ AA affiliate in 2019.
Remember that Rodriguez was a lottery ticket that hit big. Teams pick up fringe relievers like this all the time, and it can run the gamut anywhere from Rodriguez to Miguel Del Pozo. The Pirates can take chances like that right now with little consequence if they miss.
He’s not going to make the team out of spring training, but he should start in Indianapolis. If he pitches well there, he could get a call to the Show at some point this season.
• Speaking of Rodriguez, I’m surprised that his name never really came up this offseason. There didn’t seem to be a huge demand for relievers on the trade market overall, which is probably the cause, but he proved to be a very good late-inning option in.
“Richie did an unbelievable job stepping into that job last year,” Shelton said back in December, talking about Rodriguez as a closer. “The great thing about Richie is the entire time he was doing it, every single day, he was telling me, 'use me how you want. Use me as much as you want.' “
Barring a late signing, Rodriguez does look like the closer for this team. He has the makings to be a pretty good one.
• Looking at the list of NRIs heading to Bradenton, Fla., I can’t really get a feel for who the third-string catcher could be.
Yes, it’s not exactly the most pressing issue on this team, but even though Jacob Stallings led the Majors in innings caught last year, he has never caught more than 700 innings in a whole season at any level. Over 162 games, 700 innings is about half a season for catchers. Michael Perez is projected as the backup by virtue of being the only other catcher on the roster.
It’s a long season, and most teams don’t have the luxury of using just two catchers over all 162 games. A freak foul tip could sideline someone. It’s the most physically grueling position in the sport.
Several weeks ago, Ben Cherington listed catcher as one of the positions he would like to explore adding to, and they have signed Joe Hudson to a minor-league deal since then. That is an addition, but is it enough, or even all they were hoping to get?
If I had to take a guess, I’d say Andrew Susac is the next man up. He was in the Altoona camp last year and got very strong reviews. The Pirates made him a part of every taxi squad and he was added to the roster for the final game of the season as a reward for the work he did.
• Since his deal was finalized with the Rays Tuesday, a closing thought on Chris Archer. The trade was historically bad. It’s not all his fault. He had no control over who he was traded for, and even if he would have pitched as well as he had with the Rays the last couple years, it still would have been incredibly uneven.
That said, I can’t help but wonder what his Pirates career would have been like if Shelton and Oscar Marin were already here. The main reason for his troubles as a Pirate was the previous regime’s insistence that he throws a sinker. He was a strikeout pitcher who was told to pitch to contact. Of course it didn’t work. Once he ditched the sinker in mid-June, he turned in some good starts. Then a shoulder injury and a TOS surgery cut his Pirates career short, so Marin never got a chance to have him pitch to his strengths again.
He has something still left in the tank. He’ll bounce back with the Rays.
• Lunatics, the equipment truck began its trek to Florida Tuesday:

Pittsburgh Pirates
Spring is almost here. Finally. And like the NFL, they’re going to try to play the whole thing.
Hopefully by the end of the season the virus will be under control.