Let’s be up front. This is a fool’s task.
If there’s one thing you can count on in a Derek Shelton lineup, it’s that it is unpredictable. Last year, he didn’t write a lineup that had the same nine players hitting in the same spot in the order and playing the same position in the field until Aug. 14, the 18th game of the season. By this reporter’s count, the Pirates used 58 different combinations of starting lineups over the 60-game season. Some of that was a product of there being a designated hitter and some late-season promotions, but even early in the year, Shelton wasn’t afraid to mix things up.
So if this doesn’t end up being the Pirates’ opening day lineup, just wait a bit. This combination is bound to pop up eventually.
Joking aside, most of the Pirates’ moves this offseason involved their pitching, so the lineup will mostly be the same, sans Josh Bell. There will be competition and playing time up for grabs, but there are also more than a couple jobs that are already spoken for.
“We have some guys who are locks,” Shelton said during the winter meetings. “Ke’Bryan [Hayes] is gonna play third. [Bryan] Reynolds is gonna play one of two spots in the outfield. Greg [Polanco] is gonna play right. [Jacob] Stallings is going to catch.”
How about after that? What could Derek Shelton’s 2021 opening day lineup look like?
1. 2B Adam Frazier
Frazier’s name has come up in trade rumors the last two years, but even amid the extensive roster overhaul, he’s still a Pirate.
Shelton has said he plans to use Frazier like he did last year -- mostly at second while occasionally filling in at left field. Project him to also reclaim his spot batting leadoff, and for his name to start popping up in trade proposals come July.
2. SS Kevin Newman
Newman had at least one plate appearance at each spot of the order last year and made multiple starts batting at every spot besides ninth. Shelton could, and has, pencil him in at any spot. He got most of his starts in the No. 2 hole though, so lets play the percentages.
Shelton and Ben Cherington have talked about how there will be plenty of competition this spring training and identified shortstop as a position that will have playing time up for grabs. Cole Tucker or Erik Gonzalez could wind up the starters, but even after a terrible 2020 season where he batted .224 with a .556 OPS, Newman is the favorite for the job.
3. 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes
Batting third as a rookie? No pressure, kid. Hayes hit the ground at full sprint last year, but the rest of the league has had an offseason to prepare for him now. This will be a marathon, not a sprint like last year for him.
Hayes has catapulted himself to top 10 prospect status and is the favorite for rookie of the year. If he lives up to those expectations, then he’ll most likely be the face of the franchise by the end of the season.
4. 1B Colin Moran
Moran was a man without a position for a time this offseason without the designated hitter, but he’s sliding across the diamond to take over Bell’s old spot.
Armed with a new toe-tap in his mechanics and the reps of an everyday starter, Moran had his best season in 2020, going deep 10 times with a .797 OPS. Now he’ll have to prove he can perform at that level of the course of a 162-game season.
5. LF Bryan Reynolds
Reynolds went from competing for a batting title as a rookie in 2019 to finishing just one point ahead of the worst average in the league in 2020.
Last season was rough for many hitters, but Reynolds’ sophomore slump was the most shocking for the Pirates. He still provided plenty of value with his glove, but his OPS dropped nearly 250 points to .632. He has the potential to bounce back, and the Pirates are going to need him to, because he remains a big part of this club’s future going forward.
6. RF Gregory Polanco
It’s the end of the road for Polanco. Either he plays well and is traded or he struggles and is released. It’s hard to imagine any scenario where the Pirates pick up his club option this offseason with the intention of keeping him in 2022.
Polanco fractured his right wrist playing winter ball in December, but he should be back at full strength now. He was hoping to get some more reps after a terrible 2020 season where he struck out in 37% of his plate appearances and hit .153. When he did make contact, he hit it hard, so if he could put the bat on the ball more consistently, he just might be able to turn his career around. That’s going to be a tall order, though.
7. CF Anthony Alford
Alford could find himself anywhere from the top of the order to the waiver wire come opening day. Once a top prospect with the Blue Jays, Alford was not able to establish himself either in the Majors or even AAA, and was designated for assignment last August.
He’s very toolsy and has a rare combination of raw power and speed. The challenge is translating those tools into game situations. If he can do that, the Pirates might have found a hidden gem. If he doesn’t, they really don’t lose anything in the long run.
Alford needs to make the team or be let go. If he makes the roster, he’ll need sufficient at-bats to prove himself.
8. C Jacob Stallings
It doesn’t exactly seem right to write-in last year’s team MVP in the eight hole, especially after Stallings posted a respectable .702 OPS and 92 OPS+ last season. But looking at this potential lineup, Polanco needs to be high enough in the order for him to get more RBI opportunities, and Alford can’t use his speed to steal bases or take the extra bag if Stallings is already on base in front of him.
In addition to being named team MVP, Stallings finished runner-up for a Gold Glove in his first year as a starter. He has a good shot at earning another nomination this year, and maybe taking home some hardware. If he does, he would join Tony Pena and Mike LaValliere as the only Pirates catchers to win a Gold Glove.
Stallings led all National League players in innings caught in 2020, but has never caught more than 700 innings in a season in his career. The Pirates are going to bank on that changing in 2021.
9. Pitcher
After some failed negotiations between the league and the players union over the past month, there will be no designated hitter in 2021, quite possibly for the last time in baseball history. Cherish those Steven Brault at-bats, everyone.
THE BENCH
C Tony Wolters
The Pirates value defense most for their catchers, and a few years ago, Wolters was regarded as one of the best defenders and pitch framers at his position. That’s changed the last two years, which led to the Rockies non-tendering him.
He’s not going to provide much on offense. It’s as simple as that. But if the Pirates feel good about his glove, then the odds of making the roster are definitely in his favor. If not, Michael Perez is already on the roster and could take the backup job.
OF Brian Goodwin
Another newcomer to the team this week. Goodwin is on a minor league deal now, but with only four true outfielders on the roster, his odds of earning at least the fourth outfielder job look really good.
Goodwin runs the bases well and offers a bit of left-handed pop, two skills that the Pirates could use more of. So why isn’t he starting? Well, Alford is the former top prospect and Goodwin is 30. If Alford struggles, it’s reasonable to assume that Goodwin would have a chance to take over in center. If not, then at least Goodwin can backup all three outfielders.
INF Erik Gonzalez
For a few weeks last year, Gonzalez showed why the Pirates' scouts pounded the tables for him. Not only was he making plays in the field, he was hitting the ball hard, to the point that he was installed as the leadoff hitter for a stretch.
Then a horrible September tanked his season, and his .614 OPS was basically what it was his first season with the Pirates.
Gonzalez is fine as a utility infielder bench player. The problems arise when the Pirates try to make him more than that.
UTL Phillip Evans
Evans was one of the 2020 Pirates’ few pleasant surprises on offense, batting .359 over his 45 plate appearances. His season was limited to just 11 games though after colliding with Polanco while chasing a pop fly, which resulted in a broken jaw.
He is versatile in the field and could backup at first, third, second and the corner outfield if necessary. He also provides the bench with a little bit of power.
INF Wilmer Difo
The suspense of who gets the final bench spot! Could a former prospect like Kevin Kramer or Will Craig earn their way back onto the roster after being outrighted earlier this offseason? Could Troy Strokes Jr. play his way into the outfield mix? Do the Pirates want a third catcher? Will they sign another position player before the first full team workout?
For now, let’s pencil in Difo. His versatility in the field is a plus, but also a bit redundant with Gonzalez and Evans already on the team. He’s depth, and that’s about it. This spot will rotate as the year goes on.
OTHER PLAYERS ON THE 40 MAN
UTL Cole Tucker
Tucker is going to compete for the shortstop job and possibly an outfield spot too. If he doesn’t get one, he can’t spend the season as a bench player. Everyday reps in AAA would be better for his development than that.
C Michael Perez
Up until Wolters was signed Thursday, it looked like Perez was going to be the backup catcher by virtue of him already being on the roster. He has minor league options remaining, so he could be still used as depth this year.
OF Jared Oliva
Oliva still could force the Pirates hand and make the opening day roster with a big spring training, but after the Goodwin signing, it certainly has become a much harder uphill battle.
He earned a cup of coffee in the Majors last year, but he hasn’t played a game in class AAA yet. He’ll get a chance to do so in 2021, and if the Pirates need another outfielder, he’ll be ready for the call. He has the tools to be a potential leadoff hitter, and could wind up getting some starts in the spot before the season is through.
SS Oneil Cruz
When will Cruz reach the Majors? It could be sooner rather than later. After spending last season in Altoona, it seems probable that he will start this season in Indianapolis, so a midseason promotion should be on the table.
What position will he play? That’s less clear. He has yet to take a rep at another position besides shortstop, but there are serious concerns if he can stick there. Right field is a strong possibility, which would make him the heir to Polanco.
INF Rodolfo Castro
Castro spent last season at the Altoona training site and was included on the final taxi squad of the season. He’s impressed the new regime, but hasn’t played a game above class A. He won’t be in the opening day mix, and might not make his debut until 2022.
Correction: An earlier version of this story stated that teams can carry no more than 13 pitchers on the roster. That rule was waived for the 2021 season in the most recent health and safety protocols agreed to between the league and players association. Apologies for this error.
SPRING TRAINING 2021 PREVIEW
Sunday: Projecting the rotation, bullpen
Monday: 10 storylines for this spring