For years the Pirates’ rotation was led by Jameson Taillon, Joe Musgrove, Trevor Williams and Chris Archer.
They’re all gone now.
There are still some familiar faces in the rotation and bullpen -- some of whom may also be traded sooner rather than later -- but for the most part, it’s a new era for the Pirates’ pitching staff.
Like projecting a lineup, we really can’t say for certain what Derek Shelton and pitching coach Oscar Marin have in store. Last year the Pirates experimented with piggyback starters. Who knows what could be in store for 2021. More piggybacks? Openers? A six-man rotation?
For now, we’ll assume the most traditional format: Five starters, a closer and seven other relievers.
With pitchers and catchers reporting Monday, what could that opening day staff look like?
SP1 RHP Mitch Keller
If I had to take a guess, I would say there’s a better chance Chad Kuhl and Steven Brault split the regular season and home opener instead of Keller since they have seniority, but Keller is this staff’s big arm. The Pirates have some good pitching prospects, but they’re a few years away, so Keller is going to be at the front of the rotation for a while.
It’s hard to judge Keller’s 2020 season because it was only five starts long. How much stock do you put into the start where his fastball velocity was inexplicably in the low-90s? Or how about the one where he walked eight batters? Or the one where tossed six no-hit innings and looked outstanding?
Keller is finally going to get the chance to pitch over a full season. If he cuts down on the walks and just lets his stuff play in the zone, it should be a good year.
SP2 RHP Chad Kuhl
Clint Hurdle used to say you can’t judge a pitcher by their best or worst start. Last year, Kuhl finished with a 4.27 ERA. If you take out his worst outing -- nine earned runs over 2 ⅓ innings on Sept. 13 -- he would have had a 2.66 ERA. If you take out his best start --seven innings of shutout, two-hit ball on Sept. 24 -- he would have had a 5.03 ERA. That’s quite the range.
Like every other veteran pitcher remaining on the roster, Kuhl will likely be on the trade block come July. His peripherals suggest he can do better than he has at this point of his career, and he took steps towards a breakout by upping his breaking ball usage. If he can put his whole arsenal together and have a strong couple months to start the season, then teams might view him as more than a backend of the rotation starter.
SP3 LHP Steven Brault
For the first time in his career, Brault doesn’t have to fight for a roster spot this spring. After all the turnover in the rotation, he comfortably slides in somewhere in the top three. That’s only fair since he quietly has been the Pirates’ best starter the past two years.
After five years, Pirates fans know what to expect from Brault. He’s competitive, will keep teams in the game most of the time but will also mix in a few gems and clunkers. He ended last year with a couple terrific starts, so perhaps that is a sign of better things to come in 2021.
And with no designated hitter in 2021, he will step back into the batter’s box this season and put that .265 career batting average on the line.
SP4 RHP Miguel Yajure
Yajure was the main player the Pirates got back in the Taillon trade. If the Yankees had not made that move, then there was a good chance he would have been the fifth starter for the Bombers.
Yajure has a five pitch repertoire, including a high-spin cutter that runs away from right-handed batters late. He has the potential to develop three or four plus pitches. The only thing he needs now, at 22, is reps.
He’s going to be one of several young pitchers competing for a job in the rotation this spring, and his odds of getting that nod are good. But if he isn’t part of the opening day rotation, he’ll definitely get chances as the year progresses.
SP5 Free agent
Talking to Cherington, it sure does sound like the Pirates want to add another starting pitcher. So with that in mind, I’ll go out on a limb and say the final rotation job goes to someone who isn’t on the team yet. If a deal doesn’t materialize, or if they don’t make the team, then slot in JT Brubaker here.
BULLPEN
CL Richard Rodriguez
Rodriguez started off shaky last season, but once he found his fastball velocity, he turned in a very strong campaign. Yes, he gave up some hard contact, but you can get away with that when you strike out 36.6% of your batters faced. He finished last year with a 2.70 ERA, over a full run lower than it was in 2019. That sophomore season is looking more like an anomaly now.
Shelton hasn’t committed to a closer yet, but unless he wants to go with a closer by committee, Rodriguez is the only logical choice. He did well in the role last year and deserves a legitimate, extended look there. Plus, a couple saves would definitely drive up his asking price if the Pirates try to trade him.
RHP Kyle Crick
In his first year with the Pirates in 2018, Crick was dominant. Batters couldn’t pick up his extremely-high spin slider and he pitched to a 2.39 ERA.
Things have gone south since. He learned late in the 2019 campaign that he was tipping his pitches for most of the year, and then in 2020, injuries and the long layoff limited him to just 5 ⅔ innings pitched. When he was on the mound, his fastball velocity dropped from the mid-90s to about 91 mph, and batters hit him a lot harder.
This is a big year for Crick. He still could be the future closer for this team, but he can’t simply inherit the spot. He has to reclaim it. Keep an eye on his fastball velocity this spring.
RHP Michael Feliz
After the Musgrove trade and Jason Martin leaving in free agency this offseason, Feliz and Colin Moran are the last two Pirates remaining from the Gerrit Cole trade. It didn’t look too certain that Feliz would still be here, though. Not only did he have to sign before the non-tender deadline in order to ensure his spot, he also had to take a pay cut from $1.1 million to $1 million. That may not seem like much, but it is very rare for an arbitration-eligible player to take a cut, even if they only pitch in three games the year before.
Make that the second close call for Feliz. He suffered a forearm injury that cost him nearly all of the 2020 season, but was able to avoid Tommy John surgery.
Feliz’s Pirates career got off to the wrong foot in 2018, but has done much better ever since he ditched the sinker and just started throwing a four-seam fastball. There’s still a chance he could be a good bullpen arm. If he emerges as one this year, then his name could pop up in trade talks in July.
RHP Chris Stratton
Stratton’s work isn’t exactly glamorous, but he did lead all National League relievers in innings pitched in 2020. He ranked in the top 10% in baseball in whiffs and the top 20% in strikeout rate last season, so he isn’t just an inning eater. He can take the ball in clutch situations in a pinch, too.
RHP Geoff Hartlieb
Control problems over his last couple outings ended Hartlieb’s impressive sophomore campaign on a sour note. He’s had walk issues in the past, so it’s definitely worth keeping an eye on in 2021.
Even if the ending wasn’t ideal, Hartlieb emerged as the Pirates’ fireman, stranding 16 of the 18 runners he inherited. He’s a promising ground ball specialist who could pitch late in games this year if he stops giving out so many free passes.
LHP Sam Howard
Marin preaches to his pitchers that they should pitch to their strengths. Howard pushed that envelope last year with his slider, throwing it 62.3% of the time, the most ever for a Pirate pitcher since at least the advent of pitch tracking in 2008.
It’s a good pitch that falls off the plate late, which leads to a lot of whiffs, strikeouts and, unfortunately for him, walks. Batters do much better against his lower-90s fastball, so if Howard falls behind, he’s in serious trouble. Still, he was able to put together a solid 2020 campaign, and should be in position to make the team in a full relief role, not just as a lefty specialist.
LHP Chasen Shreve
Shreve finished in the top 10% of pitchers in whiff and strikeout rate in 2020 and the bottom 10% in average exit velocity allowed. He’s hard to hit, but when a batter makes contact, it’s usually hit hard. He also gives up more than his fair share of walks, but he still had an appealing 1.16 WHIP and 3.96 ERA. Not a bad hand to have in the bullpen.
Shreve has one of the best splitters in the game and gets almost all of his strikeouts with it. If he can get to a position where he could use it to finish batters off consistently, then he will be a nice addition for the bullpen.
RHP Luis Oviedo
After being passed in the 2019 Rule 5 draft and not being invited to the Indians’ training site, the Pirates scouted Oviedo in the Venezualan League and then picked him up in a trade with the Mets during this year’s Rule 5 draft.
At one point, Oviedo looked like the Indians’ next big pitching prospect. Injuries slowed him down in 2019 and messed with his trajectory, but he was hitting 98 mph in the winter league again. He will be in the bullpen this season, but the Pirates believe he can start in the future.
OTHER PLAYERS ON THE 40 MAN
RHP Tyler Bashlor
The Pirates’ roster is currently full, so some players are going to have to be let go to add the NRI players who make the team. Bashlor does have an option year remaining, but he might be the type of player the Pirates can sneak through waivers. His fastball has great spin and it mirrors his slider, but neither pitch is moving as much as it could. He is a project.
RHP David Bednar
Bednar was the one Major League-ready player who came over to the Pirates in the Musgrove trade. He has a mid-90s fastball, a curve and, perhaps his most intriguing offering, a splitter that he learned from former All-Star Hideo Nomo. The Mars, Pa. native will get the call to the Majors at some point this season.
RHP JT Brubaker
Teams can carry more than 13 pitchers in 2021 as part of the league’s health and safety protocols, so it probably makes more sense for the Pirates to carry another arm, at least for the start of the season. If they do, look to Brubaker. He held his own as a rookie last year and can get batters out with his sinker-slider combo. Call this an inspired guess, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Brubaker piggyback with someone in the rotation.
RHP Blake Cederlind
Making the opening day roster is an honor, but sometimes the team’s best relievers start the season in the minors. Think of Crick and Rodriguez in 2018, or Howard and Hartlieb last year. It wouldn’t be surprising if that’s what happens to Cederlind here. He has a true power-sinker that can hit triple digits and a slider that is thrown as hard as some cutters, so his stuff isn’t the question. It’s just control.
RHP Roansy Contreras
Like Yajure, Contreras came over to the Pirates in the Taillon trade. Unlike Yajure, he needs a little more time in the minors. He has a smooth, simple delivery with a fastball that can creep into the upper 90s, a slider that gets good spin and a changeup with sink. He profiles as a future backend of the rotation starter. There’s an outside chance he makes his debut towards the end of 2021.
RHP Wil Crowe
One of two pitchers the Pirates got back from the Nationals in the Josh Bell trade, Crowe made his debut in 2020, but was hit hard. He told me in December that he was trying to do too much then and not attacking the zone, which is not what he wants to do. He was once regarded very-highly as a pitching prospect, and could still be a backend starter in the future, but he’s going to have to get over those Major League jitters.
LHP Austin Davis
Davis was one of a handful of pitchers the Pirates grabbed midseason and threw into the fire. Of that group, one could argue Davis fared the best, allowing just two base runners over his five appearances. He showed good fastball and curveball spin and was attacking the zone more. Howard is going to make the opening day roster, but if the Pirates want a second lefty in the bullpen, Davis could challenge Shreve.
RHP Carson Fulmer
The Pirates have already designated Fulmer for assignment once, but were able to get him back on waivers late last season. The former eighth-overall pick in the 2015 draft, the Pirates were able to monitor his throwing plan this offseason. Unless he has figured something out, odds are he will probably be designated for assignment for the fifth time in eight months.
RHP Max Kranick
Kranick was the one pitching prospect who was already in their farm system that the Pirates added to their roster this offseason. He adopted a weighted ball program and worked extensively with a Rapsodo to build shoulder strength during the shutdown last year, and ended up wowing in the Altoona training camp. The Pirates added several Major League-ready pitchers this offseason, which does hurt Kranick’s chances of reaching the Show this year. Still, a late-season promotion seems like a possibility, or at the very least an invitation to the taxi squad.
RHP Nick Mears
Like Cederlind and Bednar, expect Mears to make it back to the Majors at some point in 2021. He has some of the best stuff of any pitcher on the roster: A high-90s fastball that feasts in the upper part of the zone and a curveball with drop that tunnels well off of the heater. He’s raw and needs to tighten up his control still, but if he does that, he could be a future set-up man or closer.
RHP Cody Ponce
Ponce got a taste of the Majors last year and looked good. If the Pirates don’t end up signing a starter, he could be in the mix for the fifth spot. For now, though, he’s depth, and he seems like the type of person who could frequent the taxi squad.
RHP Sean Poppen
Another DFA candidate. Poppen was claimed off waivers in October and his 16 Major League innings to his name. He has a sinker-slider combo, with his fastball sitting in the low- to mid-90s. He’s going to have to find a way to stand out to make the team.
RHP Edgar Santana
After missing all of 2019 recovering from Tommy John surgery and 2020 after being busted for PEDs, Santana is a mystery. He has options remaining, but at 29, do the Pirates want to keep him if he can't make the team? He needs to shake off the rust fast.
RHP José Soriano
Soriano underwent Tommy John surgery last February, so he will start the season on the 60-day injured list. He should be ready to go midseason, and assuming he pitches through the whole season, he could still shed his Rule 5 status.
SPRING TRAINING 2021 PREVIEW
Saturday: Projecting the lineup, bench
Monday: 10 storylines for this spring