It may be two weeks after Groundhog Day, but it certainly feels like Pitt is living the same losses over and over again.
The Panthers lost for a sixth time in their last seven games in a 74-73 defeat to N.C. State at home Wednesday, dropping their record to 9-8, and 5-7 in the ACC. Au'Diese Toney and Justin Champagnie missed shots in the final 10 seconds that could have given Pitt the lead and a much-needed victory.
A squad that started 8-2 start (4-1 in the ACC) is in free fall. And it's just like last season, and the season before.
Being realistic, the last two years made sense. Jeff Capel inherited a complete dumpster fire from Kevin Stallings and going 14-19 in 2018, then 16-17 in 2019 were both acceptable signs of initial growth for the program.
But Pitt could be staring another losing season in the face come March. The Panthers have slid from a top-four ACC team in January to a one-win team in February.
One game, they're not taking care of the ball, another they'll be outplayed by a ranked team, or their front court will get exposed, then they'll lose to an opponent at the bottom of the ACC, or they'll just get blown out altogether.
This time, it was a lack of defense and discipline on a night the Panthers were assessed three technicals that handed the Wolfpack six points in a one-point game.
“They shot 57 percent," Capel said when asked what the biggest problem was in Pitt's loss. "So there wasn’t anything that was good about our defense when the team shoots 57 percent. We played a lot of zone because we were in foul trouble, and man, they were getting the basketball inside against us which got us in a little bit of foul trouble."
And it wasn't like N.C. State did anything that Pitt hadn't seen, either.
"We knew they were going to ball screen a lot, they were doing that and so we went to zone," Capel said. "We were trying to get a little bit of relief from that so we wouldn’t hopefully be in foul trouble and keep some of our better guys out there. Again, there was nothing good about the other team having 57 percent, at the end of the day you haven’t done anything well defensively.”
Even one of the team's better defenders called out their effort.
"I feel like we have a lack of effort," Toney said when asked about the Panthers' problems on defense. "I don't know about it being our guys not having the legs for it, but it's like we lost our edge on defense."
Breakdowns happened all game for the Panthers that allowed N.C. State easy opportunities in the paint, where it outscored Pitt 42-32. Those start with perimeter defense and then bleed into interior problems.
Watch how Champagnie bites on this pump fake, then Femi Odukale fails to cut off the baseline, forcing Terrell Brown to give up his position to stop the ball. The result is three defenders committing to one player's drive and an easy slam for the Wolfpack:
And it happened in many different ways.
“Our opponents' field goals percentage and three-point percentage distress, and that is it," Capel explained when asked what's different on defense from when Pitt was winning. "We are not defending at the level that we were defending at during that time. We did against Virginia Tech and we won that game because of our defense.”
Watch how Ithiel Horton, playing defense at the top of the key, got beat so bad he allowed his man to drive through the middle of the paint, forcing Brown to come off his man and expose another slam:
Rinse and repeat.
At least those were players just losing at certain spots, but then other defensive breakdowns kept stopping the Panthers' attempts to take control of the game.
Watch how neither Femi Odukale nor Toney come to stop the ball after it's passed out of the post. Pitt's switching to zone defense should allow the team to collapse on these kinds of drives, but nobody comes to help:
If Pitt made stops on plays like these, this game would've been in the bag.
"It starts in practice," Champagnie said. "We haven't had really bad practices but there's times where we lose focus in games and it's the same thing in practice. We can't have that as a team."
And of course, there were other problems.
After turning the ball over 18 times to Georgia Tech Sunday, Pitt committed 14 turnovers against the Wolfpack. Those led to 21 points off those turnovers for N.C. State, where Pitt only scored 16 points off N.C. State's turnovers.
And again, Pitt struggled to hit free throws, converting 19 of the 28 on the night. That's good for 68 percent, just above the Panthers' 67 percent rate on the season.
The two points Pitt needed to win the game could've come from a better effort in several different spots, including the team's last possession.
After forcing a turnover and calling a timeout, Pitt had the ball with 9.3 seconds left on its own end of the court. The ball was worked to Toney at the top of the key where he drove for his chance at a shot, but missed while falling to the floor. Champagnie got the rebound and missed a final jumper at the buzzer.
"Coach drew up a play for us to get a quick two," Toney said. "But on the last play when I came off the handoff I was looking at (Horton) in the corner. If his man helped against me, (Horton) had a wide open two. But coach said if they didn't then to go and attack. I got fouled, but they didn't call it, so I tried to get it up as high as I could so Justin or Terrell could get a tip-in."
Champagnie led the Panthers with his 11th double-double on the season (18 points, 10 rebounds), Toney had 17 points with five rebounds and Xavier Johnson had 14 points with three assists.
Long before the final missed shots, Pitt created its own problems with the three technical fouls -- the first of which came from Johnson. He made a big play by hitting a 3-pointer coming off a possession where N.C. State threw him to the court and he didn't get the foul call.
You can see after he hits the 3-pointer, he looked at N.C. State's bench and said something. Whatever was said was what drew the technical foul from the official:
Capel benched him for the rest of the first half.
It was Johnson's third technical foul in the last five games.
"Nothing I've said has worked," Capel said when asked about how to get through to Johnson about avoiding technical fouls. "We've been telling him to not be demonstrative, not talk to the refs, for three years. None of it has worked. That's why him and Ithiel were benched after their technical fouls in the Notre Dame game, and that's why they were benched to start this game after their technical fouls on Sunday."
If that's a strict policy, Capel will have to dig deep to find starters on Saturday, because both Johnson and Odukale had technical fouls. Odukale was called for what was described as a 'hook and hold' by the officials, but it looked like Odukale was tossed to the floor. Capel took exception to the call and got a technical himself coming to Odukale's defense.
Six free points in a one-point game will prove extremely costly.
Johnson's and Odukale's teammates seemed most concerned about Johnson's technical after the game.
“It’s rough," Champagnie said. "That (technical fouls) kind of gets the score up by some points. It sucks when they have like six free throws in a row, the same kid taking the shots. They went up like eight, or nine, or 10 in a row. Those hurt us. You just have to try and refrain from getting the technical and just be better as a group.”
Toney also seemed disappointed in Johnson's behavior, but also felt frustrated about how ACC officials have been strict against Pitt for any reactions during the game.
"I tell him all the time, and coach does too, 'just talk to us,'" Toney said of Johnson. "At the same time, it's basketball. I don't know why the refs feel that way. There's a lot of trash talk, pushing around and plays like that. But I guess they're tired of it when we do it. We have to stay poised. I feel like we do have a reputation with the refs."
If the Panthers know ACC officials don't like the way they talk, or have labeled the team with a reputation, they shouldn't feed into it. If they know the other team works off ball screens, they should hustle harder and play faster on defense to cut those opportunities off.
All the Panthers' issues during this skid have derailed what looked like a promising season.
