BRADENTON, Fla. -- This used to be fun.
Every spring down here forever, I've canvassed the Pirates' clubhouse, asking as many players as I could corral to predict the team's breakout player for the coming season. They were limited to one player, with the only criteria being that it couldn't be someone who'd already broken out at any point in his big-league career. I'd then collect the votes, transcribe the quotes, share it with the chosen player and whip up one of my favorite columns of the year.
More often than not, the thing really panned out, too. In 2008, for example, the clubhouse choice was Nate McLouth, and, when I informed him, he replied, "Me? Really?" After which he'd go on to erupt for 26 home runs, 94 RBIs, 23 steals, an All-Star selection and a Gold Glove.
How'd Nate's teammates know?
Because baseball players just know. They see stuff we don't see. They're schooled, unlike any athletes in any sport, to notice every stupid little thing everyone does.
Anyway, that was fun. This ... eh.
Sparing everyone whatever suspense I'd love to pretend I've built up here, my 2021 breakout player for the Pirates is one Mitchell Thomas Keller.
Based, obviously, on canvassing my own brain, since our access is limited here at Pirate City by the pandemic.
But based also on something far simpler: He'd better be that.
The only facet of the organization thinner than the starting pitching at the big-league level is the starting pitching at the top couple levels of the minors. If Neal Huntington and Kyle Stark weren't picking in the first or second overall slots in the draft, they had close to zero chance of picking a functional pitcher, much less a good one. And what's left behind for Ben Cherington is such that, the other day, the man sounded borderline stoked about maybe being able to stack a handful of promising kids within the rotation of the Class A Greensboro Grasshoppers.
That doesn't mean Keller has to make up for all of it, of course. Just that he's got to be a big, big part of it.
Kind of like this:
This is cool. Live BP, meaning pitcher vs. batter, no umps. Mitch Keller gets three straight called strikes on Ke’Bryan Hayes ... called by Jacob Stallings. Watch for Ke’s reaction. pic.twitter.com/E3w8uSxy9V
— Dejan Kovacevic (@Dejan_Kovacevic) February 24, 2021
A year ago on this same complex, he told me, in a room he shared with several veteran starters, "I've been an ace at every level I've pitched, and that's my expectation here, too."
He wasn't bragging. I was there. I heard the intonation. He merely stated two facts: He was an ace at every level, and that was his expectation at this one. I've brought up that remark with him several times since, and he's never once walked it back.
And yet, even now that Joe Musgrove, Chris Archer, Trevor Williams and Jameson Taillon are gone, and he's now the only one left from that group, as well as being by far the most gifted of what's currently here, there's no need whatsoever for him to be anyone's ace.
I checked with Derek Shelton on this following the Tuesday workout here, asking how important it'll be to him to have a clear leader of the rotation, if not an outright ace since, hey, those are virtually extinct, anyway.
“I think you’re right on that part," Shelton replied. "We use the term ‘ace’ a lot, and there’s like four or five of those in the game, probably. The one thing I want our group to do is compete against each other. I think that makes them better. In its own right, organically, you’ll find someone that leads that group. But the best groups I’ve been around -- and I was around some good ones in Tampa -- they compete against each other. Their biggest competition was what the guy did the night before. And I mean that in a good way. If a guy the night before did something, they wanted to go out and do the same thing. I think that internal, fun competition is what makes a staff really good."
Good for Shelton on both counts.
There are few words more misused in the baseball lexicon than 'ace.' There are as many legit big-league aces on this planet as there are northern white rhinos. When fans commonly use the term, they apply it to whoever happens to be their best starter. Like, say, Musgrove. When people within the industry use it, they're talking Randy Johnson.
Keller doesn't need to be the Unit, big or small. He just needs to be what it's long been hoped he'd be.
Remember, as recently as 2018, he was not only the Pirates' No. 1 prospect but also No. 14 in all of baseball per MLB Pipeline, No. 12 per Baseball America, after a superlative summer with Class AA Altoona. He wasn't just what's next. He was the next big thing.
Then, he was promoted to Pittsburgh in 2019 and ... eh. He's made only 16 starts for a 5.81 ERA, a 1.65 WHIP, 84 strikeouts and 31 walks over 69.2 innings. At times, he's pitched far better than his numbers. At times, far worse. The ultimate extreme came in his final start of 2020, one in which he pitched five no-hit innings, allowed one run ... and walked eight.
Check it out:
Can't hit Mitch.
— Pirates (@Pirates) September 26, 2020
Mitch Keller becomes the first N.L. pitcher with back-to-back no-hit outings of 5+ innings since Johnny Vander Meer in 1938.#LetsGoBucs pic.twitter.com/RkboorvinR
That one apparently resonated enough that he and Oscar Marin, the pitching coach, made it a discussion point in the offseason.
"Obviously, I don't want to have eight walks again in a game, but in a way it gives me more confidence to know that when I was in the zone, they weren't hitting it, and I do have really good stuff," Keller recalled here. "This offseason, I just really focused on being athletic and just getting back to the way I used to throw, back in the mid-90s and stuff. I'm feeling really good in that aspect of where my delivery and everything's at."
Any of this sounding familiar?
Right. Tyler Glasnow.
Oh, they're different pitchers, but the scripts are similar. Glasnow crushed all comers the whole way up through the system, then went wild upon reaching Pittsburgh even as he displayed elite stuff. Keller's never stopped getting savage swings and misses, and he actually has a history of solid command at all other levels, an ideal symbiosis if it comes together.
“I worked on pretty much everything, honestly," he said, referring to his four-pitch arsenal. "But the main thing was just getting my mechanics back to how I like them and feeling free and easy again, being able to throw the fastball anywhere I want. I really focused on getting my slider and curveball back, as well, to pitches I can throw for strikes any time.”
The solution really might be that rudimentary: In 2020, Keller's pitches were in the strike zone only 36.6% of the time, and he fell behind too often with a 46% first-strike percentage, fifth-worst of any starter in the majors. So, unless he turns out to be a nibbler in the mold of Kris Benson or Kip Wells, this is likely outlier material.

TERRY RODGERS / PIRATES
Mitch Keller reports for work at Pirate City in Bradenton, Fla.
Again, Keller just needs to be his own best self. And by the time Quinn Priester and other prospects arrive, he can represent a piece -- if a vital, foundational piece -- of the bigger picture for years to come.
How does Keller see his role with Musgrove, Archer, Williams and Taillon gone and now surrounded by Chad Kuhl, JT Brubaker, Steven Brault and a handful of newbies?
"It's definitely different here," he replied. "They were four of our five starters, and now they're all gone. They're all guys I looked up to and taught me how to be a big leaguer, how to handle myself, how to be a pro. We still have our core guys of Brault and Kuhl and myself, and the young team we're building around, it's pretty exciting stuff."
And what's that mean, specifically, for him?
"They just expect me to go out every fifth day and give everything I have. They're really excited to see me grow, and they let me know that they're going to push me to grow even further, because they know the capabilities that I have. And that's exciting for me to hear that."
He'd add one other thing after a slight pause.
"And they want me to be a leader, in a way, even though I'm still really young and haven't had that many years in the big leagues. They want me to be that kind of guy that people look up to and that we build around."
Yeah, that doesn't sound like an optional step in the overall process.