Kovacevic: In analyzing the 2021 Pirates, safely assume silence taken in Bradenton, Fla. (DK'S GRIND)

DEJAN KOVACEVIC / DKPS

Two fans watch the Pirates' batting practice through an outfield fence Wednesday in Bradenton, Fla.

BRADENTON, Fla. -- Want to talk 2021 Pirates?

Really, that's fine. I'm the first to illustrate that it'll be largely irrelevant, at least in terms of how far they'll fall into last place and all that stuff. That doesn't mean it won't occur, though, and, after a week of columns focusing purely on prospects and the franchise's future, maybe it'll be fun to turn toward what's immediately ahead.

But first, if you'll pardon me, I've got to go move my car.

Oh, wait, I don't.

See, on my first day down here earlier this week, there were nearly a dozen fans gathered behind the left-field chain-link fence of Willie Stargell Field, the only field within view of the public since the pandemic has closed off the entire complex. And these poor souls, bless their hearts, brought gloves and were way out there waiting for souvenirs.

As in baseballs.

As in someone needed to hit those baseballs over the fence in front of them.

As in ... yeah, check out my photo atop this piece to see how that crowd's dwindled over the course of the week. It's a photo I snapped from my rental car, which I had no problem parking right behind that same fence, something I'd never done in years past.

photoCaption-photoCredit

DEJAN KOVACEVIC / DKPS

A 200-degree panorama of half of the Pirate City complex, Wednesday in Bradenton, Fla.

Look, there'd be nothing less fair than for me to share that no one here's making much noise with the bat. On Tuesday, catchers hit for the first time. On Wednesday, position players joined them, and a few faced live pitching and were mercilessly mowed down. On Thursday, the hitting work will finally get serious.

As Derek Shelton reminded after the Wednesday session, "The hitters just showed up, and the pitchers have been here doing their thing for a while. They're always ahead at this stage."

True, but here's betting the pitchers will stay ahead of these hitters at all stages of the summer to come. And that, as a result, the season's going to be ... well, what everyone's expecting.

I don't envision 100 losses. I honestly don't. Three reasons for that:

• As someone who covered the 105-loss team in 2010 that got John Russell fired, I can attest that a sizable percentage of the roster's got to pull the plug at some point to top the century mark. They've got to quit. And they've got to have a manager, like Russell, who'd somehow stay mostly silent through it. This group's got zero chance of either happening, with a young roster and an energetic manager who knows he'll be here for the long haul.

• Teams that do lose 100 tend to be those in stacked divisions. Think Orioles in the American League East. Or Tigers in the AL Central when the Twins and Indians were both flying high. The NL Central won't be anything of the kind. Every single team in the division -- not just the Pirates -- whacked payroll and whacked important parts. Sure, the Cardinals pulled off the heist of the decade in capitalizing on the Rockies' stomach-turning giveaway of Nolan Arenado, but they, too, parted ways with key players. That's not to remotely suggest the Pirates will challenge any of them but, rather, to stress that they shouldn't be getting buried under the weight of their peers like Baltimore will.

• The Pirates' pitching will surprise people, even though it shouldn't. What they lack in experience, they make up with live arms. Let's not forget that the 19-41 cataclysm of 2020 was fueled mostly by a dumpster fire of a rotation and a devastated-by-injury bullpen. Losing Trevor Williams, who served up a home run every 3 2/3 innings -- not kidding on that -- isn't a loss at all. Neither is losing Chris Archer, who never did a thing here after his fun debut. Here again, that's not to remotely suggest that Mitch Keller, Chad Kuhl, JT Brubaker, Steven Brault and/or Tyler Anderson -- plus other bona fide younger hopefuls -- will be challenging for the Cy Young but, rather, to stress that they shouldn't be getting lit up the way the 2020 guys did.

photoCaption-photoCredit

TERRY RODGERS / PIRATES

Colin Moran takes his swings in the cage, Wednesday in Bradenton, Fla.

But the hitting?

Sorry, I'm not feeling that at all.

The easy way to make that case is to cite 2020, when the Pirates finished dead-last in Major League Baseball with a .641 OPS, dead-last with a .357 slugging percentage, next-to-last with 59 home runs (the Cardinals, curiously, were last with 51) and, most important, dead-last with 214 runs. 

The easier way is to type out my projection for Shelton's opening-day lineup April 1 at Wrigley Field:

1. Adam Frazier, 2B
2. Bryan Reynolds, LF
3. Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B
4. Colin Moran, 1B
5. Gregory Polanco, RF
6. Jacob Stallings, C
7. Kevin Newman, SS
8. Anthony Alford, CF
9. Mitch Keller, P

OK, we all square now?

Thought so.

Say what one will about Josh Bell's precipitous plunge from his May 2019 heroics, but he had the potential for significant pop. I'm not seeing 20 bombs from a single bat in that order, though I'll concede that a platoon of Moran and newly acquired vet Todd Frazier would likely top 20 from the first base position. Neither will get on base much, but both bring pop.

As for everyone else, I mean, they can hit in the sense that they have hit. Presuming Frazier isn't traded by the opener, he's hit in spurts. Reynolds and Newman both had beautiful breakouts as rookies in 2019. Stallings has built himself into a league-average hitting catcher. Polanco ... eh, I'm not even going there this year.

photoCaption-photoCredit

TERRY RODGERS / PIRATES

Ke'Bryan Hayes, in a team photo session Wednesday in Bradenton, Fla.

The key, if the pun is pardoned, is Ke'.

If Hayes hits anything like he did in his first 24 big-league games in 2020 ... he won't, actually. Because he'd need to be Ted Williams reincarnated to pull that off. There's a blessing and a curse that comes with a rookie slash line of 376/.442/.682 that included five home runs, seven doubles, two triples, 11 RBIs and immaculate defense: The praise is as high as the pedestal.

That's why Shelton's been borderline defensive when the subject of Hayes' dominance is broached. He wants nothing to do with pressuring the kid, much less any face-of-the-franchise intangibles or clubhouse leadership. One reason Ben Cherington added Todd Frazier, a 35-year-old here on a minor-league tryout, was to ensure leadership wouldn't be a burden on any of the youngsters.

Sounds as if it was appreciated.

“I mean I’m not like the most vocal guy ever," Hayes spoke in a call with us Wednesday. "But I just feel like, each day since I’ve been here in the minor leagues and stuff, they’ve always told me, 'Don’t change who you are. Don’t change what you do. Just go about your business. Lead by example, and just keep in mind that guys are watching. They respect you a lot.' ”

Hayes called Todd Frazier "a great guy" and expressed delight that he'd been placed -- coincidentally -- at the adjacent locker stall at Pirate City.

"There's a lot I can learn from someone like that."

It's a smart approach by all concerned. Hayes' singular goal for 2021 should be consistency over his first full season and within his first full schedule. As he noted himself, “I mean, I only played like three or four teams, so I’ll get to play a bunch of teams across the league. I’m excited for that. And, yeah, I feel like I still have a lot to prove after only playing 20 games.”

Wonderful. It'll be a blast to watch. But he can't and won't be a one-man band any more than he was in 2020.

I reserve the right to be deeply skeptical of this offense. It was a devastating development for the Pirates to have Reynolds and Newman nosedive as they did, and it'd be crazy to predict that'll reverse course with the snap of a finger. Most of the rest of the lineup doesn't come equipped with upside at all, which is even worse. And there isn't a lot of surprise element waiting on the fringes, either, barring Cole Tucker suddenly figuring it out.

I asked Reynolds if he's confident this team can hit and, if so, why.

"I'm confident that we'll be the players we are," he replied. "I'm very confident in my  team."

As for himself, he added, "I know the kind of player I am. I know the kind of player I'm going to be. I have all the confidence in the world in myself. I'm not just going to pretend like it didn't happen. My timing was just way off, so I just wasn't seeing the ball. I need to be loose and on time I looked at all kinds of things, and I think I grew from it. It's not completely gone, but it's water under the bridge."

For what it's worth, Reynolds, in particular, has looked better than anyone in the early hitting, stroking to all fields and slamming three home runs in a row at one point Wednesday, then playfully flexing a bit upon emerging from the cage.

Have to admit, I did at least reach for my keys after the third of those.


Loading...
Loading...