It's no secret the Steelers need to run the ball better in 2021. When you rank dead last in that statistic and set a franchise record for futility on the ground, you're not breaking any big news when the team president says at the end of the season that fixing the running game is a top priority.
But with 2020 leading rusher James Conner headed toward free agency in less than two weeks and unlikely to be back even in a lesser role, there has been some speculation how the Steelers will go about doing what Art Rooney II said they needed to do when he spoke to the media last month.
Forget about the reports of the Steelers being interested in high-priced free agents such as the Packers' Aaron Jones. That's just not happening. They don't have the salary cap space to do so and signing a 26-year-old running back to a big-money deal is bad business, anyway.
That leaves the draft.
Recent history shows that teams are passing on running backs in the first round. In fact, in the past 10 drafts, just 14 running backs have been taken in the first round. The hit rate on those first-round backs is reasonably good, however, with 10 that could be considered hits, including Clyde Edwards-Helaire last season by the Chiefs.
Does that mean the Steelers should automatically just take a running back early to fix their rushing attack?
After all, the last two times they've taken a running back in the first or second round -- Rashard Mendenhall in 2008 and Le'Veon Bell in 2013 -- it's worked out.
And spare me the Mendenhall-was-a-bust refrains. He had 3,309 yards and scored 29 touchdowns from 2009 through 2011. That's not a bust. He was better than Conner, in fact..
But the answer to whether the Steelers have to take a back early is a little more complicated than a simple yes or no reply.
First, with Conner leaving, the Steelers really don't have an NFL-caliber starter among their other backs. So, the answer is yes, right?
There also is some precedent for a young running back coming in and helping a team make a big improvement, most recently when Ezekiel Elliott helped the Cowboys go from 3-13 in 2015 to 13-3 in his rookie season in 2016.
Josh Jacobs, a first-round pick in 2019, helped the Raiders go from 4-12 in 2018 to 7-9 as a rookie. It was a more modest improvement, but an improvement nonetheless.
But given the league's propensity to wait on backs -- last year, Edwards-Helaire was the 32nd-overall pick -- maybe waiting until the second round would be more prudent.
The problem for the Steelers, however, is that this year's draft includes just a few players who might be considered immediate starters and every down, bell cow backs. That would be Alabama's Najee Harris, North Carolina's Javonte Williams and Clemson's Travis Etienne. And Etienne might be closer to being a high-end committee back such as the Saints' Alvin Kamara than he is to Elliott or Jacobs.
So, if the Steelers pass on taking a running back with their first-round pick (24), they take a chance that Harris or Williams might not be there for them in the second round.
Here's the thing, however. GM Kevin Colbert will come up with a list of 24 players he would absolutely take with the 24th pick in the draft. You can bet that at least four quarterbacks will be on that list. There will be at least three or four wide receivers, as well.
But will there be 24 players who the Steelers have rated higher than any of those three running backs? That's unlikely once you start factoring in positions of lesser need. Yes, need overrules best player available when the grades are close.
Because of that, don't be surprised if the Steelers take a running back in the first round, even if Harris is gone. And taking Williams in the first round would not be a "reach."
In every draft there are 10-15 top prospects that any team would take regardless of position. After that, the next 40-60 players will all be graded similarly. And that's when need takes precedence.
The depth at offensive tackle this year will have good players at that position available into the third round. And there isn't a single center in this draft that will likely have a first-round grade, though there will be some capable of perhaps playing right away starting in Round 2.
If the Steelers miss out on getting one of those top three running backs, they'll likely have a committee approach again in 2021. And even if they improve their line play, that's unlikely to give them marked growth in their running game.
MORE STEELERS
• With the Ben Roethlisberger contract situation now behind them, the Steelers can turn their attention to signing some of their own free agents. Currently, assuming the salary cap comes in around $185 million, the Steelers have about $8 million in cap space. And it could be more if the TV deals increase the cap higher than expected. That's enough cap space to get players such as offensive tackle Zach Banner, Tyson Alualu and perhaps even Cam Sutton under contract before free agency begins March 17. And the Steelers have gotten there without having to release a single player. So much for all the doom and gloom surrounding the team's cap situation. Now, that doesn't mean the Steelers are going to make pitches to keep Bud Dupree or JuJu Smith-Schuster, but that's why they drafted Chase Claypool and Alex Highsmith last year. -- Lolley
• Tickets for the induction of the 2021 Pro Football Hall of Fame Class go on sale on the Hall of Fame's web site today. But Steelers fans should be aware that the 2020 and 2021 classes will be inducted on different days. So, the 2020 class, which includes Troy Polamalu, Bill Cowher and Donnie Shell will have its induction ceremony on Saturday, Aug. 7. The 2021 class, which includes Alan Faneca and Bill Nunn, will be inducted on Sunday, Aug. 8. And, of course, the Steelers will play the Cowboys in the Hall of Fame game to kick off the preseason Thursday, Aug. 5. So, if you're planning on being in Canton, Ohio for the game and the induction ceremonies, it will be a busy -- and full -- weekend. -- Lolley
PENGUINS
• Don't overlook the role good fortune has played in the Penguins making it this far without having a player or coach record a positive test for COVID-19 -- it remains to be seen whether Sidney Crosby and/or Todd Reirden has contracted the virus, or simply might have been exposed to someone who has -- because it could so easily be passed on by a spouse or child who picked it up at a school or grocery store or other setting where at least casual contact with strangers can't always be avoided. With that established, everyone involved in their on-ice operation, including the athletic trainers and equipment managers, deserves credit for the discipline they have shown in adhering to the NHL's coronavirus guidelines. Players are, for the most part, responsible for exercising sound judgment when they're at home, but when they're on the road, they're limited to being in the team hotel -- their own room, not a teammate's or one of the hotel's common areas -- the arena in which they play and a league-approved practice facility, if that's someplace other than the arena. No exceptions, no excuses. That might seem like a small sacrifice to make the 2020-21 season possible, and perhaps it is, but it also is a radical departure from how players traditionally interact on the road. There are no team-bonding activities, or even groups of friends having a meal at a favorite restaurant. And it's obviously in the Penguins' interest to continue to abide by the regulations because, as widespread outbreaks in places like Dallas and New Jersey show, once the coronavirus enters a locker room, a lot of people might pick it up before it can be removed. -- Dave Molinari
• The Penguins aren't doing Drew O'Connor, one of the more promising young forwards in their organization, any favors by having him shuttle between the NHL roster and taxi squad. O'Connor showed some pretty fair offensive skills at Dartmouth -- he had 21 goals in 31 games in 2019-20 -- before signing with the Penguins as a free agent, and perhaps those will resurface as his pro career progresses. So far, however, O'Connor has just one point (an assist) in nine NHL games, and is averaging just nine minutes, 14 seconds of ice time. O'Connor doesn't seem completely in sync with the pace of play at this level, which is understandable -- and all the more reason that he should be developing his game with the Penguins' American Hockey League affiliate in Wilkes-Barre. Much like rookie defenseman P.O Joseph, O'Connor's long-term prospects would be well-served by filling a prominent role and playing big minutes there, rather than primarily participating in practices here, whether it's with the full team or just the taxi squad. And if injuries on the major-league roster -- or simply the quality of O'Connor's play with the Baby Penguins -- would merit recalling him, he could be back on this side of the Commonwealth in a matter of hours. -- Molinari
• Penguins president of hockey operations Brian Burke, as noted in a story on this site a few days ago, isn't shy about offering unfiltered opinions on almost any subject. That includes a less-than-flattering assessment of his own two-year playing career as a blue-collar right winger with the Springfield Indians and Maine Mariners of the AHL. The Mariners won the Calder Cup for 1977-78, when Burke had three goals and five assists in 65 regular-season games and no points in eight postseason appearances. "I played a very small part in that championship," he said. "I'll be the first to admit it. I was not a good player at that level." Part of the reason for that might be that Burke didn't take up the game until he was 13, when his family moved from Rhode Island to Minnesota. That didn't prevent him from having a productive career at Providence College, where he started as a walk-on and left as a captain, but his late start was evident in the AHL. "By the time I got to the pro level, all of the guys worked as hard as I did and they all tried as hard as I did," Burke said. "They were just better than I was. I started too late. My skill level never caught up." He figures to have a say in the personnel moves general manager Ron Hextall makes, which means Hextall can expect Burke to provide blunt evaluations of the players he watches. Kind of like this one, which he offered about himself as a player: "Finishes all his checks. Can kill penalties. Poor scoring ability. Works his ass off." -- Molinari
PIRATES
• The Pirates haven’t made any decisions on where they will host their alternate training site, mostly because the league decided to cancel the first month of the AAA season to go back to last year’s format, at least to start the year. I hear the sites being considered are Bradenton, Pittsburgh and Altoona. Of the three, the Pirates will be hosting minor-league spring training in Bradenton once the regular season begins, and while they do have a unique situation where their stadium and training complex are actually two different facilities, it would be a commute to get a taxi squad up to Pittsburgh. The Pirates hosted spring training 2.0 at PNC Park last year, but it would be cumbersome to host the alternate camp there when the Pirates are at home. The Pirates used Altoona as the alternate site last year, and while there’s nothing official, it seems to make the most logistical sense. -- Alex Stumpf in Bradenton, Fla.
• Last week, reliever Austin Davis was placed on the 60-day injured list, greatly increasing the chances of any non-roster left-handers to make the opening day roster. That includes Chasen Shreve, though he was close to a lock for making the team before that, even if he is currently on a minor-league deal with a spring invite. The Pirates tried to sign him last year, but he went to the Mets instead, so they have had their eyes on him for a while. The minor-league deal was a way for them to avoid opening up another roster spot yet while still getting him into a camp. -- Stumpf
• You might have seen the Pirates tweet a video last week of outfielders catching fly balls while standing on a giant tire. That’s a new drill this year, with the goal being to improve their pre-pitch set-up and see how they read fly balls on low line drives without moving in. The way the Pirates saw it, anyone can catch routine pop flies in the air. They wanted to try something different. -- Stumpf
• The Pirates invested heavily in the Dominican Academy last year, doubling the size and the amount of players and coaches it could hold. While not as drastic, there are some improvements at the LECOM Park facilities this year too, including adding more pitching mounds behind the stadium in right to accommodate the extra pitchers the Pirates are bringing into camp. The Pirates own the Bradenton franchise, but Greensboro, Altoona and Indianapolis will have to make other investments to upgrade their facilities to meet Major League Baseball’s new guidelines for affiliates. -- Stumpf
