Lolley's 10 Thoughts: What a wild new year already

In the weeks leading up to the start of the new league year and free agency, we knew it was going to be a time like we've never seen before. In fact, I wrote here about how it would be unprecedented.

That might have been an understatement.

The Patriots, a team that typically treats free agency much like the Steelers, have spent $249 million in new contracts, by far the most in the league. Those moves firmly cement New England in the middle of the pack in the AFC hierarchy because they still don't have a quarterback.

The Colts, another of the few teams who had a massive amount of cap space, have spent $4.5 million of it, mostly on re-signing running back Marlon Mack, who is coming back from a torn Achilles' tendon. Oh, and don't forget their big move of putting all of their quarterback eggs in the Carson Wentz basket.

The Texans have been another of the most active teams in the league, signing or trading for everyone else's garbage. To this point, they've made 23 acquisitions, signing the likes of Donte Moncrief and trading for the likes of Ryan Finley.

The Steelers? Their scorecard shows six acquisitions -- or should I say retains -- in JuJu Smith-Schuster, Cam Sutton, Zach Banner, Ray-Ray McCloud, Chris Wormley and B.J. Finney (who was a reacquisition). Two true outside free agents -- linebacker Miles Killebrew and offensive tackle Joe Haeg were added Saturday. And they've had five losses in Bud Dupree, Tyson Alualu, Mike Hilton, Matt Feiler and the release of Vince Williams. Apparently, soon we'll be adding cornerback Steven Nelson to that list, as well, in a cap-related move.

It's that last one that needs to be addressed now. News broke Friday that Nelson would be permitted to seek a trade right around the same time the Steelers re-signed Smith-Schuster. It was widely assumed that, since Nelson's departure would save the Steelers $8.25 million against the cap and Smith-Schuster's deal was announced at $8 million for one year that it was a straight up move.

Then, however, the Steelers quickly announced the Smith-Schuster deal as completed, which didn't make sense since they didn't have that much cap space available and Nelson was still on the books. But, as we later learned, Smith-Schuster's deal had voidable years tacked on that put his 2021 cap hit at just $1.6 million.

According to overthecap.com, the Steelers now have $2.2 million in cap space available. And that includes the signing of Smith-Schuster, but not Wormley, whose deal has not yet been officially announced. All we know about that is that it is a two-year, $4.5 million contract that included a $1.2 million signing bonus. That puts the average at $2.25 million per year, but Wormley's cap hit is probably right at that $1.6 million level, as well -- a $1 million base salary and $600,000 of prorated signing bonus.

So, why the move with Nelson since the Steelers obviously could fit both of those moves under the cap without doing anything?

The Steelers obviously feel some combination of Joe Haden, Sutton, Justin Layne and James Pierre makes more sense than adding years onto the deal for Nelson, who is entering the final year of the three-year, $25.5 million free agent contract he signed two years ago. Otherwise, they would have simply tried to sign the 28-year-old Nelson to a contract extension rather than give him permission to seek a trade.

And we can assume that if a trade cannot be worked out, at some point Nelson will be released.

That's not been the M.O. for the Steelers. They don't typically allow starting players who have not been an issue to seek a trade -- Antonio Brown being the only outlier there, and he was obviously a problem. And they had never before signed players to deals with voidable years included, but have now done three of those this offseason -- Smith-Schuster, Sutton and Ben Roethlisberger's "extension."

But, as we knew, this was not going to be a typical offseason with the salary cap going down $15 million because of the pandemic.

And, as Friday shows, don't overreact to a move on face value. Wait and see what's in the details and what it could mean down the road.

• I can't help but think the move to let Nelson go precludes something else happening. After all, as I mentioned, the Steelers don't need the immediate cap space. And no, the signings of Killebrew and Haeg don't count there.

Nelson's departure, whether it be via a trade or release, will give the Steelers a big boost in cap space. They could be preparing themselves to make moves for a veteran center and tight end, the two biggest obvious needs heading into free agency.

Of course, with the losses they have had, including the surprising one of Alualu -- the only really surprising one -- adding a veteran defensive tackle other than Wormley also would make sense.

• A lot has been made of the losses on defense, and they have been big. Nelson played 88.14 percent of the team's defensive snaps last season. Williams was at 65.21 percent, Dupree 59.09, Hilton 45 and Alualu at 43.53.

Notice how none of those players were at 100 percent, however, with Nelson coming in at 88.14 being the highest. Corners rarely leave the field. Nelson missed a game last season. Williams missed two and was an on-again-off-again starter as it was. Dupree missed five. Hilton missed four. Alualu missed one, which shows you just how little the team's nose tackle actually plays.

Notice a trend there?

The Steelers got a look at one point or another last season of what life looked like without all five of those players. Now, that's not to say they loved what they saw. All things being equal, they would have loved to have had Dupree back.

But they obviously decided that they could move on without the other guys because of people they have in place or people they think they will have in place by the time the season rolls around.

As much as we lament the losses of some of these players, they're not T.J. Watt or Minkah Fitzpatrick.

Does anyone really think the Steelers can't, for example, find another cheap defensive lineman to competently handle 43.53 percent of the snaps? Wormley could get some of those. But it's more likely, again, that there are other moves forthcoming.

They also played four games without Smith-Schuster in 2019 and obviously decided that, at the price they could get him at in a depressed wide receiver market, they were better off bringing him back.

• The re-signing of Sutton puts a dent in the mantra that the Steelers can't draft or develop cornerbacks.

After all, Sutton was a third-round pick in 2017.

They also, by the way, developed Hilton, even though they didn't draft him. Yes, he spent time with the Jaguars and Patriots his rookie season, but not enough to actually soak in a lot. He was with the Patriots for only a couple of weeks.

Thing is, the Steelers haven't spent a lot of high draft capital -- something in the first three rounds -- on cornerbacks over the years.

Yes, Artie Burns in the first round in 2016 was a miss. Senquez Golson in the second round in 2015 also was a miss, but because of injuries. Prior to that, you have to go back to Curtis Brown in 2011 to find another cornerback taken in the first two days of the draft.

The Steelers didn't prioritize the position when Dick LeBeau was defensive coordinator. LeBeau wanted big cornerbacks who could tackle and play zone defense. He didn't care if they had good hands or could mirror a wide receiver in man-to-man defense.

But when LeBeau left after the 2014 season, the Steelers changed what they were looking for. They wanted corners who could play man-to-man. They wanted more athletic corners with good hands who could take the ball away.

Those cost more money and higher draft picks. And when you miss on those, more people notice, ie. Burns and Golson. Miss on a fourth- or fifth-round pick, it's not as big a deal.

But the hit rate across the league at the cornerback position is not a good one. No position in the league sees more turnover. From 2015 through 2017 -- far enough back that second contracts are in play -- there were 14 cornerbacks selected in the first round of the draft. Of those, 11 are no longer with the team that drafted them.

Cornerbacks are largely just rentals across the league.

• I'm not sure exactly why some seem to be ready to give up on Layne. He was a third-round pick in 2019. And when he was drafted, he was an athletic project who had played cornerback at Michigan State for just a couple of seasons after starting out as a wide receiver.

He also is an outside corner only, meaning you're not going to put him in the slot. So, his path to playing time was very limited.

Layne didn't play a single defensive snap as a rookie. He played 117 defensive snaps in 2020, all pretty much in the sub package when teams were definitely throwing the ball. Now, he allowed 10 completions on 12 passes thrown his way for 127 yards, but it's not unusual for young cornerbacks to be targeted and to give up completions.

But, they're also allowed to get better.

In fact, after Sutton's second season in the league, when he played about twice as many snaps as Layne and allowed 20 completions on 29 pass attempts for 297 yards and three touchdowns, there was a healthy portion of the fan base that was ready to call him a bust.

He got better. The Steelers are betting Layne makes a similar move. Teams tell you what they think about things with the moves they make.

• The Steelers' draft board is constantly changing because of these moves.

And so, you have to change your ideas of what team might do in the draft, as well.

While I didn't think the team would take an off-ball linebacker early a few weeks ago, that's now looking more likely. I've delved into that position more in recent weeks and it is every bit as deep as the wide receiver and tackle positions.

That might cause some teams to pass on taking a stud linebacker such as Tulsa's Zaven Collins in the first round, thinking they can get help at that position later. And Collins would be tempting with the 24th pick.

• One position you can take off the Steelers' draft board this year is wide receiver. Bringing Smith-Schuster back means the Steelers likely won't be in the market for one after selecting a receiver on the first two days of the past four drafts.

They've done something similar at running back, but have waited longer to make that pick. Outside of James Conner in the third round in 2017 as a compensatory pick, the Steelers have taken a running back on the third day of the past four drafts.

But, as this graphic put out by 4for4.com shows, yes you can get a 1,000-yard runner in later rounds, but you're much more likely to get one the earlier you take that position.

The idea the Steelers can just throw another mid-round pick at the running back position and get their next starting running back is a nice hope. But hope is not a solid plan.

Of the 311 1,000-yard seasons posted by a running back in the past 20 years, 207 have been posted by players taken in the first or second rounds. That's 66.6 percent. Add in the third-round picks who have done it, and 80 percent of the 1,000-yard seasons have been posted by players taken on the first two days of the draft.

Throwing another fourth or fifth-round pick at the position isn't good business, unless you're looking for a backup. And the Steelers aren't looking for a backup.

• Another position that won't be tempting in the first two days is defensive tackle. That position is lacking a great deal this year.

That doesn't mean that some team won't reach and take one in the first round, but that's exactly what it will be ... a reach.

• Adding a cornerback in the draft has always been on the list of things to do. It might rise up on the list of needs with the loss of Hilton and the expected departure of Nelson.

But this is a great year for cornerbacks in the second through fourth rounds or even a safety with coverage skills.

With more teams running spread offenses and throwing the ball like never before, college programs are producing plenty of great wide receivers. And they need players who can cover those wide receivers. Players who would formerly be running backs are now moving to wide receiver. Wide receivers are moving to cornerback and tight end. Cornerbacks are moving to safety. Safeties are moving to linebacker.

The big guys are still the big guys, but the other positions are undergoing a metamorphosis.

• The other thing that is happening in the college game that is having a trickle-down effect is quarterbacks are more pro-ready coming into the league. Or, at least NFL teams are more inclined to cater their offenses to fit what a quarterback does well.

Twenty years ago, that wasn't the case.

That's why it's not that big of a deal for the Steelers to be going into 2022 without a likely starter.

As we've seen the past two years, veteran quarterbacks have been on the move more than ever because teams are willing to roll the dice with a rookie much more so than they were before.

Quarterbacks can be acquired. It just depends on how much you're willing to spend or how much draft capital you want to give up to get one.