How apples-to-apples comparisons of Rocker and Leiter might bear fruit

COLUMBUS, Ohio — The baseball world barely had time to process Kumar Rocker’s two-hit, 14-strikeout masterpiece on March 19 when Vanderbilt teammate Jack Leiter began manicuring the mound to his specifications and preparing to toss his first pitch the next morning.

Throwing in the same stadium against the same opponent and virtually the same lineup, Leiter went about making Rocker’s outing the second-most dominating pitching performance of the weekend. Sixteen strikeouts, one walk, no hits. That was Leiter’s line in a 5-0 win over South Carolina at Hawkins Field in Nashville, Tenn.

Due to COVID-19 restrictions, there were just 496 fans in attendance, but you could probably  hear the cheering all the way in Bradenton, Fla. 

The Pirates own the No.1 overall pick in the MLB Draft this summer and, in a 14-hour span, two of the NCAA's top pitching prospects combined for 30 strikeouts and limited the Gamecocks to two hits and two earned runs. Rocker, 21, is 6-0 with a 0.73 ERA, 53 strikeouts and 12 walks. And Leiter, 20, is now 6-0 with an 0.25 ERA, 59 strikeouts and 13 walks, this after fanning 10 more over seven no-hit innings Friday night in an 11-3 rout of Missouri in Colombia, Mo.:

But it’s probably not just the gaudy stats that make Ben Cherington and the Pirates’ other decision-makers happy. It’s the rare circumstances they have been gifted. Not since 2011 has the same college produced two pitchers of such high quality. That’s the year, of course, that the Pirates chose Gerrit Cole out of UCLA with the first pick, while teammate Trevor Bauer went to the Diamondbacks at No. 3.

Never before have two teammates been the top two picks in the same draft, let alone from the same rotation. Rocker and Leiter would be the first.

The current situation is even more ideal. Vanderbilt has evolved into one of the country’s premier programs under coach Tim Corbin, and Hawkins Field has become a Cape Canaveral-style launching pad for big-league careers. Vanderbilt is to pitchers what Penn State is to linebackers. David Price. Walker Buehler. Sonny Gray.

And this spring, the Pirates will get to evaluate Rocker and Leiter while pitching to the same lineups and experiencing the same pressures in trying to lead the Commodores to another College World Series title. Will the apples-to-apples comparisons bear fruit for the Pirates? 

“Absolutely, that’s a big advantage that they have,” a National League scout told DK Pittsburgh Sports. “The Pirates can send their top amateur scouts to watch these guys in the same environment. It’s not like you are comparing a college player to a high school player or two college players from difference conferences. The fewer variables the better, and there are going to be so many less variables when making evaluations on those two guys.”

Music City barbecue joints will have plenty of imprints from the Pirates’ corporate cards, but the information gathered in charting the two pitchers should more than cover the business expenses.

The Pirates are slated to have four picks among the first 73 in the draft when factoring in their supplemental selection between the second and third rounds. Organizational scouts assigned to Vanderbilt on any given day also can watch other potential targets in the SEC, the best conference in college baseball.

“It’s not like they have only one pick in the draft,” one American League scout said. “It gives them a chance to evaluate other really good talent facing (Rocker and Leiter). That's an added bonus, right?”

Whether it’s Rocker, Leiter or someone else at No. 1 overall, this year’s draft process for the Pirates runs through the West End of Nashville. While the setup is convenient, another American League scout isn't sure the circumstances make the evaluations any easier.

“It all sounds nice, but you still have to base your decision on what you see in the individuals,” he said. “Trust me, teams are not factoring in these guys are wearing the same uniforms. Independent evaluations must be made on what’s best for their organizations.” 

What's not debatable is the prestige of the Vanderbilt program or the pedigree of those in charge.   

NCAA

Kumar Rocker smiles in the dugout after throwing a no-hitter during the 2019 season.

TITLE TOWN 

With his trim physique, sharp features and closely cropped gray hair, the 59-year-old Corbin resembles a drill sergeant. But there’s nothing hard-boiled about the Commodores’ coach, at least not in his dealings with the media on Zoom calls, which have been the norm during the pandemic.

His replies are thoughtful and expansive. This week, he shared a detailed story about giving Rocker a book on the legendary Bob Gibson because he thought the youngster could learn from the pitcher’s path to glory and fight against racial injustice during the turbulent 1960s. 

“As a young kid, I think it serves them well to look at their forefathers and how they operated in the game and in the circumstances they had to operate,” said Corbin, who’s guided Vanderbilt to two national titles in the past seven seasons, including one that Rocker helped deliver in 2019. “Kumar is one of those kids who shares some similarities with Bob Gibson.”

Listening to Corbin and studying his track record, it’s easy to see why Rocker and Leiter passed on opportunities to turn pro out of high school to attend Vanderbilt. The two right-handers are honing their craft under the guidance of pitching coach Scott Brown, who’s been recommended for big-league gigs by none other than Bryce Harper. 

If former pitcher Al Leiter, a two-time All-Star and three-time World Series champion, thinks Vanderbilt is a good place for his son, who can argue with the merits of the program?

“Scott Brown is regarded as one of the best, if not the best, pitching coaches in the country,” said Burke Granger, a draft analyst for 2080 Baseball. 

Translation: The Pirates’ potential No. 1 pick is marinating in the perfect environment, one that’s fostered 24 alums who have made major-league appearances since Corbin came aboard in 2003.

Both Rocker and Leiter are sons of successful former athletes. (Tracy Rocker played briefly in the NFL, and has enjoyed a long coaching career.) Both are hard-throwing pitchers who drew national acclaim as teenagers. And, unlike Cole and Bauer, who disliked each other at UCLA, Rocker and Leiter have become excellent resources for each other. 

“(We’re) two different personalities,” Rocker said. “(We) bring those personalities together when we need to. He knows the broader pitching side from (his) dad and stuff like that, and he can come to me when he needs (something). We just bounce things off of each other and get down to the center-cut point of things.”

Rocker helped lead the Commodores to a national title as a freshman, making headlines with his no-hitter in the super regionals against Duke. It was the last no-hitter at Vanderbilt until Leiter authored his on March 20.

“He’s a really special pitcher and a special individual the way he goes about his business and how he carries himself in the locker room,” Leiter told the SEC Network regarding his relationship with Rocker. “It’s something to model yourself after. It was really good for me last year coming in as a freshman to see how things are done because obviously he had done it the year before.” 

Having two studs exchanging information about their approach to pitching will only benefit them — and their future pro teams.

“I know they get along very well and they support one another and that’s a great thing,” Corbin said. “I won’t name names but in talking with other coaches who have had a twosome like that, (the coaches) said they don’t really share that type of information with one another, and that's unfortunate.” 

LONGER RUNWAY

Rocker and Leiter have similar backgrounds and draft stock, but there also are differences, and they extend well beyond the obvious one. Rocker projects an intimidating mound presence at 6-foot-5, 245 pounds. Leiter would not stand out in a crowd of backpack-clad students strolling across campus between classes. He’s listed at 6-1, 205 pounds. 

The Pirates must drill deep to find what qualities best suit them. 

Corbin recently was asked if opposing batters could take what they learn facing Rocker on a Friday into a Saturday matchup with Leiter. 

“Watching them against our kids (in practice), the velocity is so different,” Corbin said. “You might say, ‘Why is it so different? They are both throwing 95-96 miles per hour,’ but it’s completely different. It’s like, and I used this example the other day, (Curt) Schilling and (Roger) Clemens. Their fastballs — the trajectory, the bore of it, the life on the ball as it got to the plate — just entered the zone different.”  

Just a guess here, but Cherington would sign up for a Schilling or Clemens. Not that either Commodores’ pitcher will reach that plane of excellence. 

Rocker is the more experienced pitcher at the college level. He’s made 24 starts and 27 overall appearances with 2.53 ERA, owning a 19-6 record. Leiter has just eight starts, his freshman season cut short by the onset of the pandemic. The no-hitter against South Carolina marked his first appearance in an SEC game. 

“His first opponents this season were like against Wright State, Georgia State and Illinois-Chicago,” the first American League scout said. “Major League clubs have seen Rocker do it at a highest level of competition.”

There’s no disputing the results, however. Leiter is 7-0 in two seasons at Vanderbilt with an 0.81 ERA. He might not have Rocker's body or body of work, but he generates ample power from his athleticism and mechanics. 

All 16 of his strikeouts against South Carolina came on fastballs during an outing in which he struggled to throw his other pitches for strikes early in the afternoon. After the game, Leiter said he’s working to improve his command, an evaluation echoed by draft analysts.  

“Leiter is incredibly talented,” said Jonathan Mayo, a draft and minor league analyst for MLB.com and MLBPipeline.com. “He’s not super big and his pure stuff does not jump off the page in the way you think of a No. 1 overall pick. His stuff is plenty good enough when he’s on as he was last week. He knows how to mix his pitches incredibly well. But the combination of size, the small sample size and spotty command are things you have to look at.”  

The good news for Leiter is the draft comes a month later this year (July 11-13). The longer runway affords him more opportunities to prove his worth against elite competition. 

The Pirates aren’t going to base their pick on one or two starts in a conference tournament or the College World Series, assuming the No. 1-ranked Commodores make a deep run. But every appearance gives talent evaluators more information as they build their draft board. 

Rocker possesses a devastating slider and, according to Eric Longenhagen, a prospects analyst for FanGraphs, his breaking ball is better than any of Leiter’s secondary pitches. But it’s a long season and there’s no telling how a minor injury or slight regression in form would play with major league teams selecting early in the draft.   

“I think you could argue for either one of them,” Longenhagen said. “Watching them back to back this spring will illustrate some of the differences and they will force you to ask, ‘Which one of these guys would I rather have?’”

Last weekend’s performances from Rocker and Leiter highlight the need to withhold judgement until later in the spring, Granger said.

“Each time Rocker goes out and does something spectacular, you say to yourself, ‘Let’s not overthink this, Rocker is probably the guy,’’’ he said. “Then, Leiter comes out and throws a no-hitter the next day.”

VANDERBILT ATHLETICS

Jack Leiter.

SCOUTS' TAKES 

Nobody loves the world of social distancing -- well, except, maybe Barry Bonds -- but the pandemic offered one silver lining to talent evaluators denied the chance to see Rocker and Leiter pitch extensively last spring. 

Mayo believes teams used the fall to conduct Zoom interviews with many potential draft picks at a time in-home meetings were discouraged. 

“I think it’s a huge factor in the decision-making process,” the second American League scout said. “One of the easier evaluations is what they do on the mound. You can break down their deliveries and arm angles and what crosses the plate on video or in person. But figuring out what’s going on in between these kids’ ears is one of the hardest things we do. What separates 10 guys who can throw 95 miles per hour and have similar stuff? You learn a little bit about that through the interviews depending on what you ask and how forthcoming they are.”

Corbin lauds Rocker’s competitiveness. Last weekend, the staff ace spent a long time in the dugout during the bottom of the seventh inning. Not wanting to risk injury, the coach intended to remove Rocker and turn the game over to the bullpen.

Instead, his starter talked Corbin and Brown into one more inning en route to a 3-2 win

“You could tell he smelled the finish line,” Corbin said. “There just aren’t that many guys who find that different gear. That’s a different gear for a starter now. There just aren’t many guys who are built that way. He’s just built differently mentally and physically.” 

Mayo spent last year trying to curb the hype surrounding Rocker as the presumptive No. 1 overall pick. He barely played as a sophomore because of the pandemic and there were questions about his command and the fact he hadn’t developed a strong third pitch beyond his fastball and slider. 

The analyst said Rocker’s start to this season has provided encouraging answers.      

“When you have a guy who’s kind of the frontrunner coming into a year, the hope is he runs away and hides,” Mayo said. “Kumar is kind of doing that. . . . Leiter is keeping pace, but Rocker started ahead because of his size and his pure stuff. If he keeps showing he can command it, the conversation is not as interesting as even I thought it might be.”

Granger also gives the edge to Rocker, but adds, “I don’t think you could go wrong with either one of them.”

The National League scout said there are questions about the body types of both pitchers.

“I’d worry about Rocker being maxed out physically right now,” he said. “And, I would worry that there are not a lot of 6-foot right handers out there like Leiter.”

The second American League scout understands concerns about Leiter’s frame, but says his athleticism and mechanics compensate for the lack of size. “If there were other problems, I would buy into that more,” he said. “But I don’t see that many.”  

Granger said Leiter has four or five pitches that are “electric,” but that Rocker’s command remains superior for now. He added that Rocker’s larger frame is hard to discount.

“His body is built to eat major-league innings,” Granger said. “The velocity comes really easy and effortless to him. It doesn’t look like he’s exerting himself. It just seems like the ball is jumping out of his hand and he’s throwing mid-90s fastballs.”

Mayo anticipates that all of the Pirates’ decision-makers, from area scouts up to Cherington, will see the Vanderbilt pitchers at least once in person. The club likely will have multiple talent evaluators at big games. 

Some might debate whether watching Rocker and Leiter pitch against the same opponents night after night gives the Pirates an advantage in the draft process. The one American League scout is skeptical. Others think it will be helpful.  

“That’s a battle front offices always have to figure out as it gets closer to draft time,” Granger said. “How are they going to allocate the time of their decision-makers? In this situation, they can get those guys a hotel room in Nashville for the weekend because they are going to see arguably the two top guys in this draft class in Rocker and Leiter throwing to the exact same hitters on consecutive nights. It does take some of the guesswork out of it.”