Kovacevic: Lots to dread for Pirates ahead, though not broader scope

CHICAGO -- The trademark wind in this town whipped through Wrigley Field with a feels-like temp of 27 degrees Wednesday afternoon as the Pirates embarked on their final, if informal, workout of the, uh, spring. Down the dark stairwell from Major League Baseball's most cramped clubhouse. Through the all-cement, catacombs-like tunnel. Up the creaky wooden dugout steps.

On the eve of facing one seriously cold reality.

"It's challenging," Derek Shelton was telling me a few minutes before taking that trek himself. Only I hadn't asked about the dire forecasts for his team but, rather, for the weather.

"Yeah, you go from 85 to 35," he continued, referring to his team's Grapefruit League finale the previous day in, of all extreme possibilities, Fort Myers way down on the southern Gulf Coast of Florida. “You have to be very aware of that. You have to be very aware of bodies. Obviously, we were coming in to do some work as a staff, and we made it available if you wanted to show up. It looks to me like just about everybody is here to get out in the cold weather. But it’s something you have to be extremely mindful of.”

The workout was optional, but attendance was perfect. Probably, as Shelton suggested, out of necessity.

Today, when the Cubs' Kyle Hendricks throws the first pitch to Adam Frazier at 2:20 p.m. Eastern, before a coronavirus-cautious crowd expected to be in the range of 7,500, the thermometer should show 36 degrees, those famed outfield flags will be flapping off a 14-mph wind, and ...

Hey, wait a minute. This isn't the cold reality you thought I was describing?

Oh, that cold reality!

Well, then, let's start anew: The Pirates will lose this game.

Then the two here this weekend.

Then get swept in Cincinnati, as well.

Then get booed out of PNC Park next Thursday.

Then ...

Look, it won't be pretty.

Not this game, with all those tight swings against pitchers who hold every advantage when it's this cold. And not this season, according to every sentient being on the globe who's made a prediction for what's to come. Depending on what's read, seen or heard, these Pirates will finish within a range of 40 wins to ... what, maybe 70 at most?

Here's the lineup card Shelton will carry up those wooden steps today:

1. Adam Frazier, 2B
2. Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B
3. Bryan Reynolds, LF
4. Colin Moran, 1B
5. Kevin Newman, SS
6. Gregory Polanco, RF
7. Jacob Stallings, C
8. Anthony Alford, CF
9. Chad Kuhl, P

That's ... OK if one believes that 2019 was the default for most of these guys and that 2020 was the outlier. I'm not there yet, and I won't be influenced in one direction or the other by the insane numbers half of them put up in Bradenton, either. Unless anyone's prepared to bequeath the batting title this very second to Newman for the .606 average he'll doubtless carry into the games that count.

Don't misunderstand, please: It's better that they showed some bop down there than not. Confidence and consistency are only everything in baseball, and the swings, the pitch recognition, the timing, all of that takes root in March. So good for them.

But check back with me on this after a full April in which the Pirates never leave the north and, within that, only get out of the cold while indoors at Milwaukee's newly renamed American Family Field. Bats can go as cold as the climate.

The pitching situation is strikingly similar: There's talent at hand, but the outlook's beyond unpredictable.

The starters for this series will be Kuhl, Tyler Anderson and Mitch Keller. This doesn't excite me. Kuhl can't reach a fifth inning, Anderson was tagged for 22 hits in his 18 spring innings, and Keller was only the worst pitcher in camp. Despite having the highest pedigree. JT Brubaker's been a wavy variable and little more. The rest is a whole lot of Trevor Cahill. Steven Brault's no star, but his loss for two months will be felt.

Maybe Miguel Yajure and Wil Crowe will make an impact at some stage. That'll help. But what's here now could be rough, particularly if Keller isn't solved, either by pitching coach Oscar Marin or by Keller himself.

The bullpen, believe it or not, looks bright despite no clear closer. Richard Rodriguez, Kyle Crick and eye-popping newcomer David Bednar all look back-end capable, and I'd argue that having more options is better than having just one at this stage of the Pirates' build. But I also could envision an excruciating blown lead or two in the early going throwing all this warm-and-fuzzy out of whack.

The defense will be very good in the infield, very mediocre in the outfield, very whatever overall.

One gets the picture.

I respect the plan Ben Cherington's applying to building the organization -- calling it a rebuild is crazy to me, considering Neal Huntington and Kyle Stark never built anything to rebuild -- and, by necessity, this requires patience.

And losing. Probably lots of losing.

At the same time ...

Sorry, but I just can't get down about all this. And not just because of what might occur between now and 2023 or 2024 once Cherington augments his No. 8-and-climbing prospect pool with one of Vanderbilt's two mega-potential pitchers, Kumar Rocker or Jack Leiter.

I'm talking right here, right now. Because if this season's bound to be basically a prelude, then I'll be more than satisfied to take in some of the storylines on the way.

I'll take the first full season of Hayes, the Pirates' single most promising youngster since Andrew McCutchen. He couldn't conceivably have topped his one-month output as a rookie ... until he did exactly that this spring. What a blast it'll be watching him blossom further.

I'll take the dual revival of Reynolds and Newman. I've maintained that nothing hurt more about 2020 than watching both those players nosedive as sophomores, so it's fair to suggest that the reverse would be no less uplifting.

I'll take that infield defense as a whole, not least of which is baseball's best defensive catcher in Stallings. It's one thing to lose. It's another to be embarrassed. If these Pirates can carry themselves will in this regard, it'll bode well for Shelton's ambition of creating the 'winning culture' he often cites.

I'll take the livelier arms now in the fold. No, I won't trust Keller and company until I see more, but I already saw plenty while in Bradenton this spring of the heavier velocity, the bigger break, the tighter control Cherington's compiling at all levels.

I'll take whatever pleasant surprises might pop up along the way, such as Bednar, the product of Mars, Butler County, putting up a scoreless spring that saw 18 strikeouts against a walk and three hits.

I'll take wonderful storylines like Bednar being told this week by Shelton that he'd made the roster, then calling home to hear his own reaction multiplied over the phone. As he recalled Tuesday, "I was just super fired-up, and they still somehow eclipsed that." The family will be waiting for him at PNC Park next week.

I'll take a few months of eagerly tracking how Nick Gonzales, Quinn Priester, Oneil Cruz, Liover Peguero and other bona fide prospects will fare at all levels from Indianapolis to Greensboro and beyond. There's very real upside to these kids and several others. Not manufactured. Not oversold.

I'll take Wiz:

I'll take, in general, that there's finally, finally the right approach being applied. That after a decade and change of bungled trades, butchered development and behind-the-clock adjustments, Cherington and this new front office have, at the very least, the correct way of going about it. The execution, of course, remains to be proven.

Oh, and know what else I'll take?

Baseball.

CHICAGO TRIBUNE

The Cubs work out Wednesday afternoon at Wrigley Field.

CHICAGO TRIBUNE

Markings for spacing apply even to the famed rooftops across from Wrigley Field.

CHICAGO TRIBUNE

A safety worker tests a contactless metal detector at Wrigley Field.

Yeah, it's far from home. And the place will be at a quarter capacity, masks up, all that stuff. And teeth will be chattering. And yet again, the expectations for the Pirates' collective outcomes couldn't be lower. Whether they win or lose this afternoon or this weekend or all month.

But I'll take ball.

And I'll take it all summer long, within the scope of feeling actual hope for the franchise's future for the first time since ... since ...