Kovacevic: Shelton's opening pitching formula was fun, but it's also done taken in Chicago (DK'S GRIND)

GETTY

Derek Shelton emerges from Wrigley Field's visiting dugout Thursday.

CHICAGO -- On paper, it's among the prettiest possible lines for a bullpen.

In practicality, it's ... eh, no.

The only colder truth than the wind chill Thursday in the Pirates' season-opening, super-uplifting 5-3 victory over the Cubs at Wrigley Field was that Derek Shelton's relentless barrage of one-inning relief bullets ...

photoCaption-photoCredit

... won't work the rest of this weekend here. 

Or in Cincinnati after that. 

Or at all, really.

Not to be that guy, but the convergence of all those guys being healthy and available, combined with the standard off-day following an opener, combined with the controlled setting of spring training that preceded it ... sorry, that won't get replicated again for the entirety of 2021. It was a one-and-done in every sense.

And to Shelton's credit, he didn't seem to deny that afterward.

"I think the bullpen’s gonna be significant, not just for us but for everybody," he'd say. "You saw what David Ross had to do with his bullpen; I think they pitched seven guys."

Yep. The Cubs used seven relievers, the Pirates six.

"Until starters get built up," Shelton continued, "and when you have cold-weather environments, and with the fact that we’re all coming off 60 games, I think you're gonna see bullpens become really important."

No question.

And that's why it's imperative, by the way, that the Pirates are opening with a 14-man staff, for anyone still complaining about that after this display.

It's because, on one hand, Ben Cherington and staff chose to keep Luis Oviedo, the Rule 5 pick they plucked this past winter off the Mets' roster. He's 21 years old, he's got a big 6-foot-4, 235-pound frame, he touched 96 mph this spring, and his pedigree is that of a starter. A team at this phase of building with youth can't afford to dump a prospect like that without at least a lengthy look, even if he's never thrown a pitch above the Class A level.

But it's also because, to be blunt, this rotation doesn't figure to offer much length:

• The 2020 staff leader in innings pitched was Trevor Williams at 55 1/3. But he also rated among Major League Baseball's worst starters, with a 6.19 ERA, 15 home runs allowed and a .296 opponents' batting average, so his length actually was a detriment. He's gone now, anyway, having been designated for assignment in November.

• Next in line was JT Brubaker, and he averaged 4 2/3 innings over his nine starts. Now, he did make two relief appearances to open the schedule, so a build-up was necessary. But still. He made it beyond six official innings only once, his penultimate start that lasted 6 2/3.

• Next was Chad Kuhl, and he also averaged 4 2/3. Now, he had his own asterisk, coming off Tommy John surgery. But still. 

Mitch Keller was limited to five starts due to injury, and those saw him last five innings, then 2 2/3, 3, 6 and 5.

Tyler Anderson, the Pirates' starter here Saturday, was with the Giants in 2020, and he was an iron man compared to the rest of this group, logging 59 2/3 innings over 11 starts and two relief appearances. One of those was a complete game, to boot. But other than that, he never made it beyond six official innings.

• Remarkably, Steven Brault might've been best positioned to help this rotation with length, given that he closed 2020 with a complete game and a seven-inning scoreless gem. But he's shelved now for as long as two months with a strained lat, leaving in his wake a whole lot of Trevor Cahill, Wil Crowe or whoever Shelton picks to round it out. And the fact he hasn't made that known yet should speak volumes unto itself.

The Pirates' average start in 2020: 4 2/3 innings.

Average start in 2021: Well, three.

That was Kuhl's line Thursday, as he overcame the bitter cold affecting his grip -- same was true of the Cubs' Kyle Hendricks, so it wasn't some excuse -- and limited Chicago's damage to a run.

After that, of course, all this started:

Oh, my. The velocity. The movement. The command. The varying arm slots and styles and so much more.

In order, Duane Underwood Jr., Clay Holmes, Sam Howard, David Bednar, Chris Stratton and Richard Rodriguez collectively crushed the Cubs. And I mean crushed: Six innings, one run, one hit -- both off Stratton -- to go with 11 strikeouts and one walk. On top of that, they were machine-like efficient, with Stratton's individual pitch count of 19 being the highest of any single inning.

Hey, strikeouts require at least nine, right?

And therein lies yet another aspect of what happened that's hard to replicate: Shelton expressed confidence afterward that his bullpen should be fine for the weekend because, as he put it, "We controlled the pitch counts pretty well, so that played a large part of it."

Great. I'm not out to downplay excellence, and this was precisely that.

What's more, as Kuhl stressed on his own, "They had an unbelievable spring. And then there's more guys. We have guys who had really good springs that didn't make the team, too."

At the same time, it'd take a pitching staff of 18, 20, even more to compensate for short start after short start. Because these arms, live as they are, wouldn't hold up to excessive wear in a normal year, much less one that follows a pandemic-shortened season. Cherington spoke last week of being in "uncharted waters" in terms of managing innings through the organization, and he cited that as the principal reason he's carrying all these pitchers at the expense of a standard bench. And any run of injuries or dip in performance will only compound all this.

It's not some Pittsburgh-specific issue, either: In 2010, half of all starts in the majors resulted in 100 or more pitches. By 2019, that'd plunged to 24%. And last season, it was 14%.

The obvious solution is to get more innings from the rotation. Which almost certainly will be utilizing both Cahill and Crowe, as well as Miguel Yajure, Steven Wright, Cody Ponce and others. Cherington's on record as saying he expects the Pirates to go through "10 to 12" starters this season, even in the absence of an emergency.

At the moment, though, the obvious candidates to deliver more innings are ... not obvious at all.

Loading...
Loading...