2021 NFL Draft: Lawrence at the top, then who's next?

Trevor Lawrence has been the first-overall pick for as long as he's been at Clemson. It was only a matter of what year he would be in the draft.

It will be this year, and Lawrence, as expected, is considered a no-brainer pick by the Jaguars, who own the top pick in the NFL Draft, which will be held April 29 through May 1.

The question for this year will be the order in which the other quarterbacks are selected after Lawrence and how many are taken?

Many feel BYU's Zach Wilson will be the second player taken in this draft by the Jets. And that could likely be the case. But the difference between Wilson and my second quarterback, Justin Fields of Ohio State, is negligible. And I give the nod to Fields based on him being every bit the passer that Wilson is, but with a dynamic trait that Wilson does not possess.

Now, players such as Lamar Jackson did not run a 40 when they entered the NFL. But it's doubtful Jackson's 40 time would be remarkably faster than that of Fields, who was a dynamic runner as well as passer at Ohio State.

In fact, the comparisons of Fields to other Ohio State quarterbacks in recent years don't necessarily hold up. Fields had 63 touchdown passes and just nine interceptions in 579 collegiate pass attempts while completing 68.4 percent of his passes. More impressively, even with that high completion percentage and low interception rate, his yards per attempt was 9.3. He is an excellent downfield passer.

"To me, he's a little bit more polarizing than the other guys," said NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah. "Fields you could see some teams having him at No. 2, other teams having him at No. 5. It's very team specific."

The success of Jackson in the NFL the past two-plus years in Baltimore should have wheels spinning for teams at the top of the draft. Fields is every bit as dynamic as an athlete, but he's a more polished passer.

He'll just need to continue to work on his anticipation with throws, but in the right offense, he could become a dominant player.

This is not to knock Wilson. His 2020 season was special, as he threw 33 touchdown passes and just three interceptions.

He can make all of the throws and is the kind of athlete teams are now looking for at the quarterback position. Statues in the pocket need not apply.

Wilson can move in the pocket, and while he's not necessarily a scrambler, he did have 10 rushing touchdowns in 2020.

As polarizing as Fields might be for some, there should be even more questions about Alabama's Mac Jones and North Dakota State's Trey Lance.

Jones exploded this season very much the same way Joe Burrow did at LSU a couple of years ago. That outstanding final season vaulted Burrow from a player who was considered a late-round prospect to being the No. 1-overall pick.

That won't happen for Jones, but his final season at Alabama was special -- 41 TD passes, 4 interceptions and a 77.4 percent completion percentage. He's extremely accurate and very decisive.

But he's not the athlete at the position that some of the others on this list happen to be. There's also the question regarding how much of his success was due to him and how much was due to the fact he was playing with first-round talent across the board at the skill positions -- wide receivers DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle along with running back Najee Harris and others -- and behind and offensive line that will all be drafted, as well?

If Jones had played at Florida and the Gators' Kyle Trask at Alabama, would their draft stock be flipped?

Lance is almost a complete unknown in this draft. He played at an FCS school that played just one game in 2020, that coming against Central Arkansas in an exhibition. In that game, Lance completed 15 of 30 passes for 149 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Now, he did run 15 times for 143 yards and two touchdowns, but that has kind of been the norm for Lance.

In 2019, his only season as a full-time starter at North Dakota State, Lance threw 287 passes. He complete two-thirds of them and had 28 touchdown passes with no interceptions, but he's largely a raw passer.

Lance rushed for 1,100 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2019, and at 6-4, 226 pounds, he's a good-sized quarterback. But he could take some time to develop at the NFL level while making the jump from a lower-level.

Some feel the 49ers' move two weeks ago to go up to the third spot in the draft was to get Jones, whose accuracy might play well in head coach Kyle Shanahan's offense. Jeremiah believes that move was made to go up and get Lance, given that it happened before Fields had his pro day or before Jones had what was essentially his second pro day -- Alabama had two.

"The timing of this ... to me it points a little more towards Trey Lance," Jeremiah said. "I think it's fascinating. You go back to that Super Bowl they lost to Patrick Mahomes. You saw him making plays with his legs and they couldn't stop him."

After those five -- who all could be selected in the first round -- we might not see another quarterback taken until the third round, unless a team reaches based on need. That often happens at the quarterback position.

The Steelers won't be in a position to get one of those top five guys. They select 24th in the first round, and given the need at the position around the league, they would have to trade up to get one of them.

That's highly unlikely to happen.

With Ben Roethlisberger coming back for what could be his final season and Mason Rudolph and Dwyane Haskins, a first-round pick of Washington in 2019, on the roster, it wouldn't necessarily make a lot of sense to waste a pick on a late-round prospect, either. 

There are only so many snaps to go around, and if the Steelers want to see what they have in Haskins, who they signed after he was surprisingly released by Washington, they have to get him work.

The next three taken should be Stanford's Davis Mills, Kellen Mond of Texas A&M and Trask of Florida.

Mills measured in at just a shade under 6-4 at his pro day, but then surprisingly ran in the 4.6s, showing off nice speed for a player considered a true pocket passer. Like some of the aforementioned quarterbacks, he has limited starting experience -- just 11 in his career -- but there's a lot to work with as a developmental player.

"He answered the bell. A lot of pressure on Davis Mills with a limited number of starts (11), no combine, no all-star game opportunities, this was his one shot, and I thought he crushed it," Jeremiah said of Mills' pro day last week. "He crushed it from the testing numbers that we got, and I thought it was a clean, really pure throwing session that he put on in the rain. The day could not have gone any better for Davis Mills."

Mond ran an unofficial 4.57-second 40 at his pro day, which was something that was expected. He's a plus-athlete for the position and really had a strong showing in the Senior Bowl game after a slow week of practices, per most reports from there.

A three-year starter, Mond also has more experience than some of the quarterbacks in this draft, having over 1,300 collegiate throws under his belt.

Trask, meanwhile, is something of a throwback. At nearly just over 6-5 and 236 pounds, he's a big-bodied quarterback. But he also moves like one. He's not going to scramble much at all.

But he is accurate. He completed just under 68 percent of his passes for his career, and in 2020 threw for more than 4,200 yards with 43 touchdown passes and eight interceptions.

Lolley's Top 10 Quarterbacks

1. Trevor Lawrence, Clemson

2. Justin Fields, Ohio State

3. Zach Wilson, BYU

4. Trey Lance, North Dakota State

5. Mac Jones, Alabama

6. Davis Mills, Stanford

7. Kellen Mond, Texas A&M

8. Kyle Trask, Florida

9. Sam Ehlinger, Texas

10. Jamie Newman, Georgia