A lot is made of the fact Ben Roethlisberger has only won the Steelers' MVP award just once in his career, that coming in 2009 after and 9-7 non-playoff season.
The Steelers' other MVPs in Roethlisberger's other 16 seasons have been James Farrior, Casey Hampton, Hines Ward, Willie Parker, James Harrison (twice), Troy Polamalu, Antonio Brown (four times), Le'Veon Bell (twice), Heath Miller, JuJu Smith-Schuster and, the past two years, T.J. Watt.
That's a nice group of players -- actually a great group -- and shows some of the talent the Steelers have had on the field the past two decades to keep their future Hall of Fame quarterback from simply winning this award time after time.
The real reason Roethlisberger has only won the award once is because his contributions are expected -- or at least have been since around 2005. He could be the team's most valuable player every single season, as could every quarterback in the league.
But let's take a look at the Steelers' potential 2021 MVPs and what that player winning would mean for the season's outlook:
BEN ROETHLISBERGER -- This would be a nod to the old guy for what has been a great career -- if this indeed is it for him. But if he bounces back in 2021 to earn the award, that's obviously a big deal for this team. Roethlisberger's 2020 performance ranged from good to below standards for him. He was pretty darn good for the first three months of 2020 before slumping down the stretch, later admitting that his arm got tired. Roethlisberger completed nearly 67 percent of his passes for just over 3,100 yards with 27 touchdown passes and seven interceptions in the Steelers' first 12 games of last season before his late season fade. If he can replicate those kind of numbers over the course of 17 games, he'll have around 4,400 yards and 39 touchdown passes. That would be not only team MVP worthy, but probably put him in consideration for league MVP because if that happens, the Steelers would probably win 10 to 12 games. But if he's forced to throw because the Steelers are behind a lot and the running game sputters like it did in 2020, it could be 7 or 8 games.
NAJEE HARRIS -- Having their rookie first-round pick running back win the team MVP award might be ideal for the Steelers. He's capable of making that kind of impact. When Bell won the team MVP award, he had a team-record 2,215 total yards in 2014 and 1,884 total yards in 2016, scoring a combined 20 touchdowns. Harris has a lot of the same abilities. He's a bruising runner. He catches the ball well out of the backfield and can run wide receiver-like routes. If he stays healthy all season -- and he was injury-free in his career at Alabama -- 1,500 total yards seems like a given. That would be an average of 90 combined yards rushing and receiving per game. Harris seems capable of more than that. If he does that, again, the Steelers are an 11- or 12-win team.
DIONTAE JOHNSON/CHASE CLAYPOOL/JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER -- This is where things get a little more dicey. They've obviously had winning seasons with Ward, Brown and even Smith-Schuster winning team MVP. In fact, in 2005, Ward shared the award with Hampton. It would be nice for one of these guys to establish himself as the clear No. 1 receiver, but it's also not a necessity to winning. But if the Steelers are throwing the ball enough for Johnson or Smith-Schuster to win the team MVP award, that's probably not a good thing. Claypool, however, is a different story. If he wins it, it means he caught a dozen or more touchdown passes and had a D.K. Metcalf-like breakout. That's certainly possible. We'll put the team win total at 9 games if Johnson or Smith-Schuster win it. We'll go with 10 if it's Claypool.
T.J. WATT -- This would be the status quo for Watt, who has won it in each of the past two seasons. He's been outstanding, getting better each season. What would that look like in 2021? With an extra game, Watt could approach the NFL sack record of 22.5 set by Michael Strahan. But the NFL will actually have to call holding penalties for that to happen. "I thought I was the only one who noticed," Watt said last month when I asked him about the lack of holding penalties in 2020. They were down a full penalty per game last season and at their lowest level in at least 10 years. Watt's 15 sacks in 15 games led the NFL last season but were the lowest for the league leader since Kevin Greene with the Panthers in 1996. He's capable of more. If he can do that, it would be great. But at this point, it's also the expected outcome. And it means nobody on the offense broke out, which wouldn't be a good thing. That would put the Steelers somewhere between 8 and 11 wins.
THE FIELD -- Could there be a surprise candidate? Sure. Minkah Fitzpatrick could pick off a bunch of passes. Cam Heyward or Stephon Tuitt could have a monster season. Maybe Devin Bush takes the next step and becomes a star at inside linebacker. Any of those things would be welcome additions and would go a long way toward making this a better team. But will it add up to more wins? That largely depends on who that player is and what he does. But like Watt winning the award, it also means nobody on the offense took a big step forward. Because of that, the variance of wins is much greater, with someone from the field winning the award making this an 8- to 12-win team.
