It's always tough predicting the NHL Draft order beyond the first round.
That's especially true with the unique circumstances surrounding this year's draft.
The ability to scout this year's draft prospects was made challenging by the limitations imposed as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Scouts weren't able to travel the way they normally would, or to conduct in-person meetings with the prospects, their families and their coaches. Some draft-eligible players, like the ones in the OHL, didn't play at all in the last year.
It should make for an interesting draft. Some good players may slip through the cracks and become later-round gems. Some players may have their draft stock raised just by virtue of being one of the few prospects a team was able to really scout during the past year.
As it stands now, the Penguins aren't scheduled to be active until Day 2 of the draft on July 24, when they will pick in the second round (No. 57 overall), fifth round (No. 153), and thrice in the seventh round (Nos. 193, 214, and 217).
The missing first-round pick went to the Wild in the Jason Zucker trade, the third-round pick went to the Sharks in the Patrick Marleau trade, the fourth-round pick went to the Coyotes in the Phil Kessel trade and the sixth-round pick went to the Oilers in the trade for John Marino's signing rights. The additional seventh-round picks were acquired in the Erik Gudbranson deal and a trade that swapped seventh-round picks with the Capitals during the last draft.
Unless a move is made prior to or during the draft, that second-round pick will be the first player chosen by the Penguins.
With the disclaimer that it's difficult to predict the order of picks that late -- especially this season -- let's take a look at 10 players who are projected to be selected somewhere around No. 57:
CAMERON WHYNOT
Position: Defense
Team: Halifax (QMJHL)
Size: 6-1, 180
Shoots: Left
Bob McKenzie's midseason rankings had Whynot ranked No. 56. NHL Central scouting final rankings had Robidas as the No. 44 North American skater.
Whynot's played for the Mooseheads in the QMJHL for the last two seasons, and he took strides in his offensive game this season, though he's more of a stay-at-home defenseman. After scoring two goals and seven assists in 57 games in 2019-20, he recorded six goals and 17 assists in 34 games this season. He had an elevated role, averaging over 22 minutes per game and playing on the power play and the penalty kill.
Dobber Prospects describes Whynot as a "solid two-way defender with untapped offensive upside that could see him blossom into an effective NHL blue liner. Smooth skater who utilizes good gap control and an active stick when defending in transition."
Independent scouting organization Smaht Scouting offered more praise for Whynot's skating.
"He constantly deploys a silky smooth stride and is extremely mobile," read a report from May of this year. "His edge-work and crossovers are in good shape. Whynot’s speed is quite strong and he will often look to utilize his speed in the defensive zone when he spots a loose puck. In the offensive zone, when pinching, you can expect Whynot to execute a spin move to allow the defenseman to have more space."
JUSTIN ROBIDAS
Position: Center
Team: Val-d'Or (QMJHL)
Size: 5-8, 173
Shoots: Right
McKenzie's midseason rankings had Robidas ranked No.66. Central scouting final rankings had Robidas as the No. 47 North American skater.
Robidas was a name I was familiar with this season from following Samuel Poulin and Nathan Legare on the Foreurs after they were traded there midseason. Poulin was the top-line center and Robidas centered second line alongside Legare.
Robidas finished No. 1 in goals (19) and No. 2 in points (36) on the Foreurs this season in 35 games. The Foreurs made it to the QMJHL final, losing in six games. Robidas was sixth in scoring on the team during the playoff run, with three goals and seven assists in 14 games.
Robidas models his game after that of Tampa's Brayden Point, another smaller forward. He points to his skating and his hockey IQ as his biggest strengths.
Gavin Chiasson of RecruitScouting.com did a film breakdown of Robidas here.
"While he is a smaller player, this shouldn’t worry teams," Chiasson wrote in his breakdown. "He is bulky, and is not knocked over easily. There are countless times where I see Robidas protect the puck from bigger players, and even initiate a puck battle with them. Robidas has tremendous speed but can make plays while keeping his momentum. He has an excellent shot and can play an important role on the power play with the amount of patience he has, and his ability to create space. There is one thing for certain, though – Robidas doesn’t let his height affect his game."
Robidas is the son of defenseman Stephane Robidas, who had a 14-year career in the NHL.
PROKHOR POLTAPOV
Position: Right wing
Team: Moskva (MHL)
Size: 6-0, 176
Shoots: Left
McKenzie's midseason rankings ranked Poltapov No. 62. Central Scouting ranked Poltapov the No. 18 European skater.
Poltapov spent most of last season in the Russian junior league, where he led his team in scoring with 25 goals and 27 assists in 61 games. He made his KHL debut on one game with CSKA, during which he was scoreless. He played for Russia in the U-18 Junior Championship, and was sixth in team scoring with two goals and five assists, as Russia went on to earn silver.
While Poltapov is primarily a right wing, he also has some experience playing center.
In a January scouting report from Smaht Scouting, Poltapov was described as a "power forward prospect with explosive speed and has a knack for finding open lanes in the slot, which makes him a handful when Poltapov and a teammate are on a 2-on-1 rush. Poltapov excels at driving hard to the net. He lives for causing chaos in the slot."
Various scouting reports point to Poltapov's skating as a weakness.
ARTYOM GRUSHNIKOV
Position: Defense
Team: Hamilton (OHL)
Size: 6-2, 198
Shoots: Left
McKenzie's midseason rankings had Grushnikov ranked No. 68 overall. Central scouting ranked Grushnikov No. 24 among European skaters.
Grushnikov committed to make the move from Russia to the OHL for the 2020-21 season, but didn't play because the OHL season was canceled. He last played in 2019-20 for Moskva in the Russian junior league, where he recorded one goal, four assists and a plus-7 rating in 29 games.
In the report for Grushnikov, Smaht Scouting wrote that "while he won’t garner a lot of attention in the offensive zone, there’s not much to worry about when it comes to his play in the defensive zone. ... Perhaps the most underrated part of his game is his ability to lead the rush out of the defensive zone and/or execute a long breakout pass."
Several scouting reports point to Grushnikov's agility in his skating as a strength, although he isn't exceptionally fast.
JACK BAR
Position: Defense
Team: Chicago (USHL)
Size: 6-2, 193
Shoots: Right
McKenzie ranked Bar No. 58 overall. Central Scouting ranked Bar the No. 41 North American skater.
Bar spent last year with the Chicago Steel in the USHL, where he recorded five goals and 10 assists in 34 games.
Dobber Prospects described Bar as an "efficient puck mover from the back end who uses powerful strides to jump into the rush. Still a work in progress, his combination of size and skill give him potential as a two-way, puck moving defenseman at the NHL level."
Bar's former prep school coach, David Manning, spoke with Steel reporter Ryan Sikes about the steps Bar took this season.
“I feel Jack’s defensive game has really taken a step this year,” Manning said. “And I think any time you can get outside of what has been comfortable, there will be growth if one is willing. I think the great part for Jack and this NHL draft process has been his branding as a two-way modern D man, and maybe even more as a defensive guy. He’s been an offensive force in his past, and those things are there bubbling under the surface. Don’t sleep on his offensive game and creativity.”
Bar is committed to Harvard for next season.
MATTHEW KNIES
Position: Left wing/center
Team: Tri-City (USHL)
Size: 6-2, 210
Shoots: Left
McKenzie's midseason rankings had Knies ranked No. 59. Central Scouting's final rankings had Knies as the No. 37 North American skater.
Knies spent the last two years with the Tri-City Storm in the USHL, and didn't take the step in his offensive game some may have expected this season. After scoring 45 points (14 goals, 31 assists) in 44 games for the Storm in 2019-20, Knies had 42 (17 goals, 25 assists) in 44 games this season, finishing third in team scoring.
Dobber Prospects describes Knies as "a skilled forward with decent skating skills and a knack for driving the net," but adds that he "tends to get overly creative and cause turnovers with the puck."
The website AZ Coyotes Insider did a feature on Knies, who is from Phoenix. Knies is the same birth year as the son of Shane Doan, so Doan is familiar with Knies' game after watching him play and coaching him alongside his son. He offered praise for his game, calling Knies "a big kid with incredible hands."
“If he wants to, he can take over a game physically, skill-wise or with determination,” Doan added. “He is blessed with so many different things. His hands are so good and he’s so deceptive that sometimes you fall into this trap of thinking in order to be good you have to be beating guys one-on-one, scoring in every period. Realistically, he can influence the game just as much with his physical side but I don’t think it’s as natural to him as the offensive side. He doesn’t fully appreciate how big and strong he is yet. When he does, he is going to be fun to watch.”
Knies is committed to the University of Minnesota for next season.
SEAN BEHRENS
Position: Defense
Team: USNTDP (USHL)
Size: 5-10, 177
Shoots: Left
McKenzie ranked Behrens No. 57 at midseason. Central Scouting's final rankings had Behrens as the No. 24 North American skater.
Behrens is a product of the U.S. National Team Development Program. In 23 games with the USNTDP in the USHL, Behrens was the team's second-leading scorer among defensemen, with four goals and 14 assists in 23 games.
“I‘m a two-way defenseman who loves to join the rush,” Behrens said in an interview with the Chicago Sun-Times. “I’m a good skater with good [enough] hockey IQ to find passing lanes and open up my teammates. I’m a really good transition player.”
The EliteProspects draft guide had this to say about Behrens' game:
"He surfs backwards with the perfect posture, a nice blend of risk-mitigating footwork and graceful cross-unders on the backwards stride, and a good sense of when to close. He scans regularly off of the puck. He cuts opponents off at the hands, always from a low centre of gravity. He ties up loose sticks. He mitigates risk with his positioning. His motor never stops running."
Behrens is committed to the University of Denver for next season.
DYLAN DUKE
Position: Center
Team: USNTDP (USHL)
Size: 5-10, 181
Shoots: Left
McKenzie ranked Duke No. 61 at midseason. Central Scouting had Duke as the No. 29 North American skater in the final rankings.
Another product of the USNTDP, Duke scored 10 goals and seven assists in 26 USHL games.
Dobber Prospects describes Duke as a "good finisher with a strong release who excels as a net front presence despite his small stature. Needs to add pace to his game but has potential as a middle six goal scorer at the NHL level."
While Duke was ranked early in the third round earlier in the year, he definitely helped his stock with a strong performance at the World Junior Championship, scoring three goals and one assist in five games. Most ranking websites now have Duke going higher in the second round, possibly before the Penguins pick.
""On some nights, he was the best player out there," a scout told Sports Illustrated of Duke's game after the tournament. "But because he's not flashy, you don't always notice the little things he does so well. He's a meat and potatoes kind of guy."
Duke is committed to the University of Michigan beginning in the 2022-23 season.
CHASE STILLMAN
Position: Right wing
Team: Esbjerg (Denmark U20)
Size: 6-1, 180
Shoots: Right
McKenzie ranked Stillman No. 49 at midseason, and Central Scouting had Stillman as the No. 35 North American skater.
Stillman is one of the OHL players who found a team elsewhere when the OHL season was canceled. He was loaned to Esbjerg of the U20 league in Denmark, where he scored nine goals and seven assists in eight games. He also represented Canada in the U-18 Junior Championship this season, scoring two goals and two assists in seven games in the tournament.
Stillman's last full regular season was in 2019-20 with the Sudbury Wolves in the OHL, where he scored 13 goals and 21 assists in 58 games.
The website OHL Writers called Stillman "a swift skater (with) a high level of hockey smarts."
Stillman is the son of two-time Stanley Cup champion and current Coyotes assistant coach Cory Stillman. Chase's older brother Riley played in the NHL last season with the Panthers and the Blackhawks.
BRENT JOHNSON
Position: Defense
Team: Sioux Falls (USHL)
Size: 5-11, 161
Shoots: Right
McKenzie had Johnson ranked No. 84, and Central Scouting final rankings had Johnson as the No. 38 North American skater.
Recent lists from various ranking sites have Johnson projected to go late in the second round.
Johnson had a successful rookie USHL season this past year, leading all Sioux Falls defensemen in scoring with 11 goals and 21 assists in 47 games. He quarterbacked the team's power play.
Smaht Scouting described Johnson as "a do-it-all defenseman. He can play with skill and confidence in every single zone. In Johnson, you’re getting a player who is excellent in transition, who can quarterback a power play, and who isn’t afraid to jump into the rush at any given opportunity."
Dobber Prospects wrote that "Johnson shows the ability to control the play at both ends of the ice. His defensive game is solid, building off his mobile base and ability to influence the attacker into going where he angles them."
(No, he is not related to Jack Johnson and he is not former Penguins goaltender Brent Johnson trying to reinvent himself as a defenseman.)
Johnson is committed to the University of North Dakota beginning in the 2022-23 season, which would be current Penguins forward prospect Judd Caulfield's senior year with the team.
