While the goal going into the draft was to emerge with the best combination of 21 players possible, this year’s Pirates class will most likely be judged in future years by their first four picks.
Catcher Henry Davis (No. 4 on Baseball America’s draft prospect list) was taken first overall Sunday night, followed on Tuesday by left-hander Anthony Solometo (No. 28) in round two, outfielder Lonnie White Jr. (No. 32) as a Competitive Balance Round B pick and right-hander Bubba Chandler (No. 20) shortly after in round three.
Assuming they all sign, getting four first-round talents with their top four picks – plus the player at the top of their board, Davis -- would be an incredible haul for the organization.
One can never truly predict how a draft will go. All it takes is for one team to make an unexpected selection, reach for an under-slot guy or take a big risk on a high school player to send ripples through the following selections.
But this year, a lot of those players at the top went unselected, and pretty much fell into the Pirates’ lap because they had the largest bonus pool to work with, $14,394,000.
“It's been a lot of fun to keep seeing guys that you have still so high on your board,” amateur scouting director Joe DelliCarri said.
The same thing happened in last year’s draft. While it was greatly shortened to just five rounds, the Pirates left with what experts considered to be one of the best classes in the league.
In both years, the strategy was to get the best player available. But to get so many guys near the top…
“I don't think even the last two years combined that we thought we were going to get four players in our first X amount like that,” DelliCarri said. “Not like that.”
On Tuesday, the final 10 rounds of the draft were conducted, bringing the new, 20-round, three day event to an end. Those later rounds also yielded some selections with great potential, but far more doubt in their signability.
For example, 14th round selection Braylon Bishop was Baseball America’s No. 88 prospect and No. 94 on MLB Pipeline’s list. The high school outfielder was committed to Arkansas, but plenty of players will forgo their commitments for the right bonus.
At pick No. 403, any bonus given to Bishop over $125,000 would count against the overall bonus pool. (Teams can sign players for less than that slot value, but it won’t add money to the overall pool.) Players around Bishop’s level will sign for hundreds of thousands more, something that, barring something unexpected, the Pirates won’t be able to match with the other picks they’ll need to sign.
After being selected, Bishop sent and shortly after deleted a tweet that read “See you soon @RazorbacksBSB,” followed by two laughing emojis. He posted a different tweet thanking the Pirates for picking him:
Thank you pirates for making the only dream I had as a kid come true pic.twitter.com/Y1IwTQ7Omn
— Braylon Bishop (@BraylonBish) July 13, 2021
But there in lies the risk of taking highly-ranked high school players. So while Chandler has already broken off his college commitment to play quarterback for Clemson, making the odds of him being signed look fairly guaranteed, each comes with a certain amount of risk.
“I think nothing's ever for certain,” assistant general manager Steve Sanders said. “Obviously, the big difference within the top 10 rounds, and then post-10th, is just how some of those signings can impact the bonus pool. But again, I think the process for us is really the same, which is have the best information possible we can, have conversations that are going to give us as much comfort as we can about what a certain outcome of an individual pick will be.”
The Pirates took two more high schoolers Tuesday – shortstop Daniel Corona (Baseball America’s No. 268 player) from Tennessee and right-hander A.J. Graham out of Florida – but after starting by taking four high schoolers in their first five picks, they went with college players for 13 of their final 16 selections. Players who will almost certainly sign at or below their slot value, or the $125,000 figure for day three picks.
Those late high school picks could be a hedged bet in case one of the early players doesn’t sign. That way the savings from the under-slot picks is not wasted. And if something happens where there is more free money than expected, the Pirates could go over-slot there.
In the weeks leading up to the draft, Ben Cherington told DK Pittsburgh Sports that they would spend every dollar of their bonus pool, and not doing so would go against what they were building. That doesn’t necessarily mean leaving with 21 players, though.
There are examples of the day three working for the Pirates in the past, like selecting Max Kranick in the 11th-round of the 2016 draft and giving him a large bonus. But in day three, it’s usually a case of maybe striking it lucky with one. Three is close to impossible.
Despite that, the Pirates are optimistic that they won’t be left at the altar by many of these players.
“We're optimistic that we can make a lot, if not all, of these guys Pirates," Sanders said. “We wouldn't have taken them if we didn't feel that way… Hopefully sooner rather than later, we'll be able to introduce these guys to you all and the world officially as Pirates.”
ALL OF THE PIRATES DAY THREE PICKS
• Round 11, Pick 313: RHP Jack Carey, Duke
Was the No. 237 draft prospect by Baseball America. Went 4-3 with a 5.24 ERA and 69 strikeouts in 15 starts, but improved as the season progressed and he used his slider more, Baseball America writes.
• Round 12, Pick 343: LHP Chazz Martinez, Orange Coast College, California
Went 3-1 with two complete games and a 4.50 ERA over seven starts this season. Was a first-team All-Orange Empire Conference selection in 2021.
• Round 13, Pick 373: RHP Owen Sharts, Nevada
Was the No. 371 prospect by Baseball America. Went 2-1 with a 5.12 ERA over six starts before undergoing Tommy John surgery.
• Round 14, Pick 403: OF Braylon Bishop, Arkansas High School
Was the No. 88 prospect by Baseball America. Perfect Game ranked him as the No. 1 player in Arkansas among the class of 2021.
• Round 15, Pick 433: LHP Tyler Samaniego, University of South Alabama
Went 2-2 with seven saves, a 4.08 ERA and 27 strikeouts in 19 appearances.
• Round 16, Pick 463: SS Daniel Corona, The Baylor Schools, Tennessee
Was rated by Baseball America as the No. 268 player in the draft.
• Round 17, Pick 493: RHP Carlos Lomeli, St. Mary's College, California
Posted a 5-6 record with a 4.21 ERA and 66 strikeouts over 16 appearances, 11 of which were starts. Was a second-team All West Coast Conference selection in 2019.
• Round 18, Pick 523: RHP A.J. Graham, Gaither High School, Florida
Slashed .346/.414/.512 with two home runs and 12 stolen bases.
• Round 19, Pick 553: RHP Drew Irvine, Iowa
Went 4-7 with a 6.62 ERA and70 strikes in 33 apperances, 10 of which were starts.Was rated as a top 500 prospect by Perfect Game. His dad, Mike, played in the Padres organization.
• Round 20, Pick 538: SS Brendan Dixon, Weatherford College, Texas
Hit .335 with 10 home runs, 12 doubles, 39 RBIs and seven stolen bases. Played for the university of Texas in 2020.
