Pitt suffered its first lost of the season last week against a MAC opponent in Western Michigan, sparking doubts and questions on what is supposed to be a banner season for Pat Narduzzi's Panthers.
But now the Panthers get one final non-conference game to get back on track before they open ACC play against Georgia Tech next week. That test comes in the undefeated New Hampshire Wildcats, an FCS program with an offense that averages 24 points per game and a defense that allows 16 points per game, and hasn't played an FBS football program yet this season.
Pitt has the offensive and defensive talent to dominate this game for homecoming weekend, and set a better tone before facing the Yellow Jackets next week.
• What: Pitt (2-1, 0-0 ACC) at New Hampshire (3-0, 2-0 CAA)
• When: 12:02 p.m. Eastern
• Where: Heinz Field
• TV: ACC Network Extra/ESPN +
• Radio: 93.7 The Fan
• Satellite: Sirius 103, XM 194, SXM App Channel 956
• Boxscore: Sidearm Sports
• Media notes: Pitt | New Hampshire
Top storylines
Keep up the firepower: Pitt's offense has been on fire through three games. The Panthers have scored more than 40 points in three consecutive games for the first time in program history, averaging 44.3 points per game for the highest average in the ACC and ranking ninth nationally. That's all led by Kenny Pickett, who's ten touchdown passes is the fourth-most in the country. His top targets are also turning heads as Jordan Addison's five touchdown receptions is is third-most in the country and Lucas Krull's four touchdown receptions is the most among tight ends in college football.
"Guys ask about expectations and I keep saying we're going to be extremely explosive," Krull said Tuesday, who was named John Mackey Tight End of the Week for his two touchdowns against Western Michigan. "I don't think I lied, did I? And that's going to continue to grow with Kenny back there and the weapons we have. We're going to be really hard to stop. We keep working for 50 points and we're not going to stop."
But of course, Pitt's doing all of this with the ACC's 12th-ranked rushing offense that averages 131.3 rushing yards per game, with Pickett's 38.3 rushing yards per game average leading the Panthers. While the offense's success is not lost on Narduzzi, there is still a push to fix the run game to make the offense a complete threat.
"We've got to execute," Narduzzi said about his run game during his pre-game press conference Thursday. "When I watch the video tape it's often one guy just missing his guy and that's it. You have to all be in-sync together and you can't turn a guy loose. Get a hat on a hat, get your blocks, and everybody has to do it or it won't work. We know what to do and I have a lot of trust in our kids."
Narduzzi did note that he does expect to use a heavy rotation of his running backs instead of just Vincent Davis like he did last week. He noted that part of what went into that decision was that Israel Abanikanda missed a practice last week for an undisclosed reason and that slowed where they wanted him in preparation for the game.
But on top of the run game, Narduzzi knows Pitt's offense has to start faster. Despite all of the Panthers scoring, they have yet to score on an opening possession of a game, taking three drives to get their first touchdown against UMass, four drives against Tennessee and scoring on their second drive against Western Michigan, but not following it up until Western Michigan had three consecutive scoring drives to take control of the game.
Narduzzi has seen progress with drills on just that this week, working "P and 10" situations which means a 1st and 10 scenario that's the start of a new drive.
"We have two, what we call, ACC periods," Narduzzi said. "Every Tuesday we have a P and 10 situation and say play ball. It's all about starting fast and this week they went right down the field. That's what I want to see Saturday. Defensively we call it money down and look at the key third down matchups our opponents like."
Turn up the turnovers: Zero turnovers against Western Michigan played a big role in the Panthers' 44-41 loss. It kept the defense from being playmakers and never gave the offense a chance to pile on multiple scores in succession that could've changed the momentum. That's something that Narduzzi and defensive coordinator Randy Bates have harped on to the Panthers all week.
"Biggest problem was there were adjustments we missed early," Bates Tuesday said about the Western Michigan game. "By the time we made them, they had done some good things. But the bottom line is we have to get more turnovers. We got zero turnovers last week. If you look at our two wins, they made the difference in those games. We knew they would move the ball some, but there were adjustments we didn't get out there quick enough and that's on me."
Narduzzi wants to look to the Panthers' playmakers, like Habakkuk Baldonado who leads the team with three sacks, to be the solution to that problem and not miss on capitalizing on opportunities.
"It's part of the execution," Narduzzi said of getting turnovers. "Haba had a chance to get one last week. In practice when you drop an interception we remind them that those mistakes can cost you because you only get so many opportunities. (New Hampshire) has been pretty good with the ball. When you look at their plus-four turnover ratio that's decided some of their tight games in their 3-0 starts. We have to make sure we secure the ball and that we get after them. It made the difference against Tennessee."
That message has resonated throughout Pitt's roster, starting with it's 27 seniors pushing it to the younger players. Super senior outside linebacker Phil Campbell talked about that Wednesday.
"It starts at practice," Campbell said. "Work the habits, attack the ball, punch it out. Do the different things in coverages to mix things up and give quarterbacks different looks while our line brings more pressure. Them running RPO last week made it harder to get back there with how quick they were throwing it, but New Hampshire is a more balanced team. There's a lot more we can do to cause turnovers this week."
Baldonado also sounded off on that Wednesday.
"Turnovers are a main focus for everyone," Baldonado said. "We have drills where every team period we're focused on stripping the ball, catching it out of the air and making plays on the ball when we can."
After forcing the most turnovers in the ACC last season, Pitt is tied for dead last in the ACC with only one interception. The Panthers still lead the conference with 13 sacks, but need to turn more of those into game changing turnovers that put Pickett and the offense back on the field.
Players to watch
Lucas Krull: There's no doubt Krull is having a phenomenal season and that part of it is his connection with Pickett. While Krull was with the Panthers last season, a nagging injury sidelined him for the majority of it and he didn't get to show off his athleticism to the world that Pitt saw in practices during summer camp of 2020.
But part of what's got Krull going with Pickett so quickly is their friendship off the field and how much they trust each other.
"Our overall friendship," Krull says of how he's clicked so quickly with Pickett. "He's one of my best friends here ever since my first visit. He was a great host and him with his friends took me in. Now we do everything together whether it's getting food, hanging out and whatever it is we're doing off the field."
But Krull should take credit for his success more, because plenty of coaches and players are singing high praises for his work.
"He's becoming a complete player," Narduzzi said of Krull. "I'd still like to see more in the run game with him being dominant and finish blocks with some pancakes. But he's catching some tough passes and some big passes. He's been huge for Kenny."
"He's tall, long, rangy and the quarterbacks can see him," tight ends coach Tim Salem said of Krull. "It's always nice when you've got an extra two inches with long arms as you go against linebackers. But he's talented and runs well. He also understands the ups and downs of the game as a leader. He's on our eagles committee which is just a step down from captain, but he leads guys by example playing hard no matter where he's at on a given play."
"He's a great blocker," Baldonado said of Krull. "He's a good route runner but he's also a really good blocker and it's always fun to go against him. He makes every snap a challenge and that's what makes you better."
SirVocea Dennis: Dennis has been a versatile weapon for the Panthers as both a money linebacker and a mike linebacker, but is settling into a leadership role with the defense that super seniors like Chase Pine and Campbell are praising week in and week out.
"Vossy is doing great," Campbell said of Dennis. "He's a natural leader and he leads us in the middle of the play like it's second nature. We're always on the same page and I think he's playing great at mike."
Dennis led the Panthers in tackles for loss in 2020 as one of the group's more aggressive money linebackers who would play downhill and stuff the run. But at mike linebacker he's had to take more responsible of a role to keep the defense together that has him being less aggressive, but more accountable.
The switch has led to him only having half a tackle for loss through three games, but he also leads the Panthers with 16 tackles, tied with Cam Bright and Brandon Hill. While Pitt's scoring defense ranks 12th in the ACC allowing 28.3 points per game, its rushing defense ranks sixth, allowing 112.7. Dennis deserves credit for keeping that part of Pitt's defense in check.
Dennis as a junior is a player leading what Campbell perceives as a youth movement for the Panthers at linebacker.
"It's always rewarding seeing young guys become who they said they would be," Campbell said of watching Dennis' maturity. "When I saw him he came in when he first came in and he didn't know anything. But now as a older guy to see how great he's becoming, I really appreciate him. And you'll see young guys like Bangally Kamara, Solomon DeShields, Preston Lavant and especially Wendell Davis."
Habakkuk Baldonado: Leading the Panthers with three sacks, the Italian-born 6-foot-5, 260 lbs. redshirt junior continues to turn heads in his first season as a full time starter. Having the same measurements of Patrick Jones, who led the Panthers with sacks last season and became a third round draft pick for the Vikings, Baldonado continues to grow in his skills as a pass rusher.
Expect him to lead the charge on Pitt's turnover game increasing, as he's also become more of a leader for Pitt. He's been one of the players pushing for the team to start faster, which hasn't been just a focus for the offense. The only game which Pitt didn't end the first quarter with a deficit was against UMass.
"Everybody came into this week wanting to make up for last week," Baldonado said. "We keep starting slow and aren't in the game as a whole team. We have to start fast this week and show them who we are right away."
Expect the first big splash play on defense, and turnover dunk, to come from Baldonado bringing pressure.
Behind enemy lines
Crush third downs: After allowing Western Michigan to convert 7 of 17 third downs last week, Pitt's defensive ranking on third down conversions allowed dropped to eighth, allowing 37.2 percent. But Pitt will have a chance to feast on New Hampshire, a football team that's only converted 10 of 36 third downs for 27.8 percent and has yet to play an opponent from a power five conference.
"We've been really successful the past two years on third downs," Campbell said. "We just have to keep doing what we're doing because we don't want to change who we are. We pride ourselves on it and we have to stick to the details. There's adjustments we can make based on each team's game plan. Execute, get home and lock down the back-end."
Campbell further emphasized that last week's letdown against Western Michigan did send a message, and that the defense especially is looking to use it as a correcting point.
"We've been here before," Campbell said. "There's a lot we can fix from Saturday. We're a lot better of a team than that. Scheme, details, all of it. We need to look at it as a good chance to learn and bounce back to be a good team."
But as always, winning on third down starts by winning on first and second down, especially against the run. Baldonado sounded off about how Pitt is working to look better against the run this week and set a better tone before ACC play.
"It's the nature of our defense," Campbell said. "We pride ourselves in stuffing the run and there's different ways to attack different teams. We learned a lot about ourselves Saturday against a non-conference team and now we'll know how to better adjust moving forward."
Make Wildcats be wild: At no point of New Hampshire's three games have the Wildcats been down by multiple possessions. That's allowed their offense to remain conservative and balanced to avoid forcing sophomore quarterback Bret Edwards to make big risky passes. He's completed 63 of 94 passes for 743 passing yards with seven touchdowns and zero interceptions through three games.
If Pitt wants to up its turnover production, it has to make Edwards take shots he normally wouldn't take out of desperation.
"They've got a quarterback that will scramble around and make plays," Narduzzi said of New Hampshire. "They break the pocket a lot, and he's athletic. He throws a nice catchable ball. He's smooth. And I think he's accurate. So you're facing another guy. We're all over the place, obviously in 2021. So I'm impressed with their football team. I think they're tough and I think they schematically do a lot of good things."
But to do this, Pitt's defensive players have to stick to their roles and let the plays come to them. Too many times against Western Michigan Pitt would see defensive players leave their assignments to help someone else they thought needed assistance, and that caused the chaos that allowed a MAC school to score 44 points at Heinz Field.
"The bottom line is they were trying to do too much," Bates said of his defense. "The game got tough and instead of doing their job, they would try to do other things to help win the game but forget to do their own jobs. Everyone must do their own jobs or things will go awry. Kids were playing hard, but we must keep doing the things we do the way we're designed to do them."
Baldonado noted how when the game was close, Pitt's defense couldn't finish drives because too many players lost their focus and tried to play outside of themselves. That's something that can't happen against New Hampshire.
"Especially in tight games, people start to do too much," Baldonado said. "When you try to do too much, you forget about your job. Something we're emphasizing this week is that no matter what the situations is, just do your job at an excellent level."
Prediction: Pitt 45-13
If Pitt wants to start ACC play strong, it cant back its way into conference play. This is the week where the offense puts up points early and the defense shows that it can protect a lead with its aggressive style of play.
I see all of that coming to fruition for the Panthers at Saturday's noon kickoff from Heinz Field, as New Hampshire doesn't present the kind of threat Western Michigan did with an accurate quarterback and an RPO offense that can nickel and dime Pitt's defense to death. Also, New Hampshire does a terrible job holding onto the football with ten fumbles in three games, losing five of them.
This will be a big game for Baldonado, Keyshon Camp and Calijah Kancey to force and recover more fumbles that could flip the field quickly for Pitt and allow Pickett to put up points fast and early to build a lead that establishes the Panthers as the dominant team.
That's when Mark Whipple and the rushing offense can try to work out the kinks in their struggles blocking. This is the last week to do that before conference play, and could be the tone setter needed for Pitt to be the toughest offense in the ACC to stop this season.
If this one ends up being close, let alone turn out like another loss, it will rings plenty of alarm bells.
