COLUMBUS, Ohio -- The Penguins appear to have their top two defense pairings set as they approach their opening night matchup next Tuesday night in Tampa.
While it remains to be seen who will ride shotgun with Marcus Pettersson on the third pairing, Mike Sullivan is sure to preserve the long-time duo of Brian Dumoulin and Kris Letang (who skated nearly 29 minutes Wednesday in a preseason shootout victory over the Sabres), and all signs point to a somewhat new partnership of Mike Matheson and John Marino as the next tier.
The top pairing is sure to take care of business, even if they might not be quite as effective as they were years ago, but there is reason to raise a caution flag for the presumed Matheson-Marino pairing.
In theory, they seem like a perfect fit. Matheson plays must-watch hockey, as you never know whether he will carry the puck end-to-end, or turn the puck over for an odd-man rush against in the process of doing so. Marino had incredible defensive impacts as a rookie and, though his sophomore season was a slight step backward, there is every reason to believe he will remain a steady defensive defenseman going forward.
And yet, flying in the face of that theory, the 245 minutes Matheson and Marino spent together at five-on-five through the 2020-21 season were nothing short of a hockey catastrophe.
That might seem like an exaggeration considering they were outscored by a single goal (13-12), but a look under the hood reinforces it. Per Natural Stat Trick, when the pairing was on the ice at five-on-five, the Penguins controlled only 46.6% of the shots on goal and a worrisome 44.4% of the expected goals (a statistic that measures the likelihood of every shot attempt becoming a goal, assuming a league average shooter):
The HockeyViz environment distiller displays a major sore spot in their poor performance: They hemorrhage shot attempts against from the most dangerous area of the ice. On this chart, red indicates more shot attempts relative to league average, whereas blue indicates fewer shot attempts than league average:
The Penguins were as inept at creating their own chances from the most dangerous area of the ice as they were at defending them when that pairing was on the ice. Thanks to a streak of hot finishing -- or, more likely, puck luck -- the team maintained a solid goal-scoring rate with the pairing on the ice at five-on-five, but a look at where their shot attempts were coming from suggests that goal-scoring will not last:
The pairing is worth another look this season, but the reason behind their ineptitude together is a result of them both preferring to have the puck on their stick when exiting the defensive zone.
Marino does not carry the puck end to end as much as Matheson, but he is much less susceptible to turning the puck over, something Matheson does at an alarming rate (visualized in the top right of the below JFreshHockey chart):
Matheson clicked last season with Cody Ceci because Ceci preferred the puck was never on his stick. It is not to suggest Ceci stunk with the puck on his stick, but he was more than content taking the brunt of puck retrievals in the defensive zone and allowing Matheson to handle breakout duty while assuming a stay-at-home role.
On the other hand, Marino has found repeated success with Pettersson over the past two seasons for the exact same reason, albeit in a low-event manner. Pettersson, though he is perfectly capable with the puck on his stick, allows Marino to move the puck up ice and typically takes a beating in the corner retrieving the puck so that Marino does not have to.
Last season, the pairing did have a bit of an issue defending the net-front, but they were quite stingy everywhere else in the zone:
There is more evidence to suggest Pettersson is the right partner for Marino, but that would leave the Penguins in a predicament of either playing a $4.87 million non-penalty-killer on the third pairing, or playing their budding young gun on the third pairing.
There is no reason to blame Ron Hextall for not matching the four-year $13 million payday Edmonton gave Ceci (sorry, Dejan) despite his success alongside Matheson, but some pride may have to be swallowed by the coaching staff if the poor performance of the Matheson-Marino pairing carries over from last season.
Who does that leave as a partner for Matheson?
Referenced earlier, there is no clear-cut favorite for Pettersson's partner, but Chad Ruhwedel appears to have the inside track.
Ruhwedel is an interesting candidate to flank Matheson, though it would mean significantly reducing the ice time of the latter, and it might not be the worst thing in the world. Matheson and Ruhwedel played just shy of 13 minutes together at five-on-five last season, and the Penguins had a 5-2 edge in scoring chances. A 13-minute sample is nothing significant, but it is a more encouraging lead than what the Matheson-Marino pairing appears to be.
Matheson is certainly not going anywhere, as indicated by Hextall’s decision to protect him in the Seattle expansion draft, but the Penguins simply cannot afford a season of their second pairing getting cratered in the defensive zone and scoring fewer than 50% of the goals at five-on-five.
