CRANBERRY, Pa. -- The chronically optimistic among us believe the Penguins are still a top-tier Stanley Cup contender.
Committed skeptics are convinced that the only thing the Penguins will get out of the 2021-22 regular season is a spot in the 2022 draft lottery.
The reality, of course, figures to be somewhere in the middle.
The Penguins have a core of elite talents that, while aging, still could make them a legitimate threat to defeat any team they would meet in a best-of-seven playoff series.
Conversely, they're in a highly competitive division and conference, and a run of injuries to key personnel or an extended winless streak could lead to them sitting out the postseason for the first time in 16 years.
They will face countless tests in coming months, the first of which will be facing Tampa, the defending two-time Stanley Cup champion, in Game 1 Tuesday at 7:38 p.m. at Amalie Arena.
The roster the Penguins will use in that game won't be known until sometime Monday, and it's almost guaranteed that it won't be identical to the one Mike Sullivan will deploy for Game No. 82 April 29 against the Hurricanes.
Much will change and transpire between those bookends of the regular season, and how those variables play out will go a long way toward determining where the Penguins finish in the Metropolitan Division standings.
Here are some of the reasons the Penguins can expect to have a successful season. And some others that suggest it might be a long, cold winter for them.
This will be a good season for them because ...
1. Starting the season without Evgeni Malkin and, most likely, Sidney Crosby is far from ideal, but if the Penguins ever have all of their centers healthy, it will be a pretty formidable group. Crosby and Malkin are headed for the Hall of Fame, Jeff Carter remains an offensive force at age 36 and Teddy Blueger is a good defensive center with some undeveloped offensive potential.
It takes a lot more than just good centers to thrive in this league, but being strong up the middle is as important in hockey as it is in so many other team sports.
2. The Penguins' power play will be seriously diluted if Crosby, Malkin and Jake Guentzel, who has been diagnosed with COVID-19, aren't available, but when the top unit is intact -- or even when Malkin isn't part of it -- it is a formidable group. It scored on 23.7 percent of its chances last season, the fourth-best conversion rate in the NHL, and should be capable of matching that output, if not exceeding it.
Sullivan figures to preach the importance of sound team defense even more than usual because of the high-impact offensive players the Penguins are missing, so special-teams play could decide a lot of games. And the power play has the ability to tilt some of them those in the Penguins' favor.
3. Losing their top three left-handed defensemen -- Brian Dumoulin, Mike Matheson and Marcus Pettersson -- to injuries early last season reminded the Penguins of how important it is to have good organizational depth on the blue line, and they have it again.
That's significant not only because injuries are inevitable, but because there generally is a market for capable defensemen if teams are willing to part with one. Consequently, having promising young prospects like P.O Joseph and Cam Lee in Wilkes-Barre gives Ron Hextall the latitude to deal a defenseman in order to fill a hole elsewhere in the lineup.
4. History doesn't win games -- if it did, the Canadiens would only lose about five times per season -- but a winning culture counts for something, and the Penguins have developed one while qualifying for the playoffs in each of the past 15 seasons.
That kind of consistent success sets standards and creates expectations that might not exist elsewhere, and while the cyclical nature of sports in the salary-cap era makes it inevitable that the Penguins' run of postseason appearances will end at some point, trying to live up to what previous clubs have accomplished can prod the Penguins to perform at the highest level of which they are capable.
This will be a tough season for them because ...
1. It's not a reach to suggest that the Penguins have the potential to be a pretty good team this season. Far less certain is whether "pretty good" will be enough to get a team through the Metropolitan Division and Eastern Conference, and into the playoffs.
The Metro is loaded and balanced, and will send anywhere from three to five teams to the postseason. The high end of that seems perfectly reasonable, except that the other Eastern division, the Atlantic, includes the likes of Tampa Bay, Florida, Boston and Toronto. And, oh yeah, Montreal, which made it to the Cup final this year.
Several quality clubs from the East will sit out the playoffs this season, and it's possible the Penguins will be one of them.
2. Injuries have been a recurring issue for the Penguins for several years, and they could be down as many as five regulars for the opener.
At this point, only Malkin, who is expected to be out until at least December because of knee surgery, looks like a long-term absentee. Still, a team that's lost so many players -- often, key ones -- because of medical issues in recent seasons has to be concerned that it will again have to get by without some key personnel. Especially when so many of its core players are in their mid-30s.
3. The Penguins' penalty-kill should be better, if only because it can't be much worse than it was last season, when opponents scored on 22.6 percent of their chances with the extra man.
They've had to replace two of their most frequently used penalty-killers from last season, Cody Ceci and Brandon Tanev, and still do not have a real physical presence in their defense corps to dissuade opponents from hanging around the Penguins' net.
Just as a productive power play could win some games for them, a leaky penalty-kill could cost the Penguins precious points.
4. Adding size and muscle has been an oft-stated objective of Hextall and Brian Burke since they were hired in February, but that goal hasn't been realized at this point.
That doesn't reflect a lack of effort, but of salary-cap space and, most likely, a limited field of candidates to acquire, since big guys who can play are a pretty valuable commodity.
The Penguins certainly aren't intimidated by teams that are bigger and more physical -- remember, they finished first in the East Division last season -- but the wear-and-tear that can result from playing such clubs could take enough of a toll to have an impact on how a tight playoff race plays out.
