While the Pirates’ 2021 season played out as most expected it to, that hardly means Ben Cherington and Derek Shelton’s second year on the job was a success at the major league level. A 61-101 record kept them in the National League Central’s basement for a third consecutive year, and while they could point to “developmental wins” at different points of the season, triple-digit losses is never a good thing.
For the most part, it looks like they’ll stay the path in 2022. Trust that the players in their farm system can make an impact once they reach the majors -- and there should actually be some top prospects ready to graduate to the majors next season -- and bank on internal improvement and player development.
That’s the plan on the macro scale. What about the micro? What will the Pirates do this offseason. What questions about this organization’s future will they have to answer over the coming months?
There are a couple boxes that will need to be checked this offseason no matter what -- like hiring a new hitting and third base coach. Others are out of their control, like if the league and players association will reach a new collective bargaining agreement without a lockout.
But these four questions are completely within their control and will need to be answered before the Pirates return to PNC Park.
JUST HOW MUCH ROSTER OVERHAUL WILL THERE BE?
Let’s flash back to the past. This is what the 40-man roster looked like when Cherington was hired as general manager in November 2019:
Of those 40 players, just 11 are still with the organization: Steven Brault, JT Brubaker (who had yet appear to appear in the majors), Sam Howard (who had just been claimed off waivers in October), Mitch Keller, Chad Kuhl, Colin Moran, Kevin Newman, Bryan Reynolds, Jacob Stallings, Chris Stratton and Cole Tucker. That was mostly due to a series of trades and cuts based on need at the major league level.
This next series of roster moves is going to be because of need at the minor-league level. Among the players who rank on either Baseball America, FanGraphs or MLB Pipeline’s top Pirate prospect list, more than a handful need to be added to the roster or be exposed to the Rule 5 draft. That includes Cody Bolton, Diego Castillo, Omar Cruz, Mason Martin, Cal Mitchell, Liover Peguero, Canaan Smith-Njigba, Jack Suwinski, Travis Swaggerty, Tahnaj Thomas and Eddy Yean.
Obviously some of those decisions are easier than others, and it shouldn’t be too difficult to open up at least a handful of roster spots. Just how far will they go, though? Could their roster actually consist of a dozen or so players who have extremely limited or no major league experience? Or will they risk potentially losing some of these young players they have been accumulating in the minors?
The deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 draft is Nov. 19, so this will be one of the first decisions made this winter. It will most likely set the pace for what’s to come.
WILL THERE BE ANY MORE TRADES?
In a span of roughly seven months, the Pirates traded Josh Bell, Joe Musgrove, Jameson Taillon, Richard Rodríguez and Adam Frazier. Before the 2020 season, they shipped Staling Marte to the Diamondbacks.
Simply put, with the exception of Reynolds and Stallings, the Pirates don’t have many players left who could command a top trade package, and the club is in no rush to trade either one of them. And while Cherington said they are never “through” on the trade market -- no team is, he says -- his potential trade chips have certainly changed from what he inherited.
“The roster is different now,” Cherintgon said during a Zoom call this week. “There aren't as many players we would describe as that way [veterans nearing free agency]. So that part has changed and probably does affect it a little bit. But we've got to stay open minded. We can't close ourselves off to opportunities."
So who could be on the block? Kuhl is entering his final year of team control, but could theoretically boost his trade value with a couple good months as either a starter or reliever in 2022. Over the last two years Brault has shown he is a quality backend of the rotation lefty… when he’s healthy. That’s far from a given, and his slew of shoulder injuries the last couple years may eventually force him into the bullpen.
Chasen Shreve is a veteran lefty who had good numbers out of the bullpen. He’s entering the last year of team team control. Stratton still has two years of arbitration remaining, and while he could probably fetch a decent prospect, he’s a respected member of that bullpen and clubhouse. Is it worth losing that for a mid-level prospect?
Ben Gamel is entering his last year of arbitration and has basically made a career out of bouncing around. Moran started strong this year, posting an .821 OPS and 19 RBIs through his first 32 games before the injury bug slowed him down drastically. He had just a .673 OPS over his final 67 games. If the designated hitter comes to the National League next year, he could be a reasonable buy-low option for a team looking for some corner infield depth and a lefty bat.
WHO, AND HOW, DO YOU ADD TO THIS TEAM?
Trading Moran becomes more plausible if the Pirates re-sign Yoshi Tsutsugo, one of their few pending free agents. Tsutsugo did well in his 43 game stretch with the Pirates, hitting eight home runs with an .883 OPS. However, he cooled off significantly at the end and still had trouble making consistent contact against fastballs. Still, bringing him back on a short-term deal makes sense for both sides.
Outside of that, or a potential fill-in for Moran or DH for next year, supplementing the major league club might tie in with those rookie roster additions. Is this destined to be a young team that will experience growing pains together, or will some veterans be added to the mix for leadership and to help the on-field product? Perhaps a trade for a controllable player or signing a veteran to a longer-term deal could be in the mix, though it seems less likely at this time.
Looking at where this team needs the most help, it seems like the middle infield will be an open competition, with Tucker, Newman, Michael Chavis, Oneil Cruz and Rodolfo Castro in the mix. Pitching, whether it is the bullpen or rotation, and corner outfield are definitely areas where the Pirates must see improvement in 2022, and while there are some prospects who could potentially help midseason, a free agent does the job too.
There are other ways to add to the roster. Would the Pirates dare to go even younger by taking someone in the Rule 5 draft, considering the number of prospects they need to protect anyway? The waiver wire, minor-league free agency, trades. Free agency isn’t the only route, but it is the one that would probably help the 2022 team the most. Last year, the Pirates did not sign a player to a major league contract until spring training had already started. Will history repeat itself?
WILL A KEY PLAYER GET EXTENDED?
But if the Pirates were to make just one signing this offseason, most would agree that they’d be best served extending a player.
The most obvious choice is Reynolds, who is coming off an All-Star campaign where he posted the highest WAR (6.0) of any Pirate player since Andrew McCutchen in 2014. He still has four years of team control remaining, all via arbitration. If the Pirates were to sign him long term, this winter would be the time to do it.
He checks all of the boxes for a potential signee. A high level player who management has praised for his emerging leadership that actually wants to be a Pirate.
“I’ve been saying all year I like Pittsburgh,” Reynolds said during the final homestand. “I like the staff we’ve got here, I like the players, I like the city. So … yeah. I like it here.”
When asked if a Reynolds extension was on the table this offseason, Cherington was evasive.
“That’s a door that we want to open again,” Cherington said. “That’s not specific to any one player. We want to continue to have an open door to that conversation with players as they get to our major-league roster. In a lot of cases for different reasons, you open the door, you share information, it doesn’t go much further than that. It just doesn’t make sense to for either party. Sometimes it leads to a longer conversation. Even more infrequently, it actually leads to a deal. You can’t get to those deals unless you first open the door. We plan to open the door again.”
For what it’s worth, Cherington gave me a very similar answer to that question back in February, and a few days later I was told the team was talking to Ke’Bryan Hayes about a deal. I wouldn’t interpret that answer as a guarantee that extension talks will or will not happen.
Reynolds and Hayes are the two building blocks on the current roster, and both are only going to get more expensive without a deal in place. If the goal is to build something sustainable, they’re the type of players that need to be locked up before that wave of prospects start to arrive.
