How second half of season could shape Penn State program

ALTOONA, Pa. -- See that guy pictured above? It's incredible to think about how much could be riding on him coming back to play this season -- and how much it could impact not only this year, but years to come for the Penn State football program.

There was some good news from James Franklin on Wednesday night about Sean Clifford. At least the coach didn't say the quarterback was done for the season, because that would have been crippling for the Nittany Lions.

"He's doing everything he possibly can to get back as soon as he possibly can and go from there," Franklin said. "What he's dealing with is not uncommon with the quarterback position."

There's no doubt that Clifford is the most important player to his team in all of college football this season. But where does he stand on the most important players to a single team in Penn State history?

I asked some of the deans of the Penn State beat to name a player in Lions history who, if he had gotten hurt, it would have had the biggest impact on the team.

Rich Scarcella from the Reading Eagle mentioned Kerry Collins in 1994, while Mike Poorman from StateCollege.com said Michael Robinson in 2005. Those were historic Penn State teams, in large part because of those two players, and sure enough, no one wants to think about what might have happened to those teams if those guys had gone down with injuries.

With all that, let's take a look at what's at stake over the next couple of months:

What exactly is Clifford's injury?

We don't know. And we're probably not going to know, at least for a good while -- possibly when or if he returns to play. Here's the play where the injury occurred:

Since Penn State isn't going to tell us anything, we have to speculate at least a little, which nobody likes doing but is impossible not to do in this case. Without going into great detail, that hit above looks like it could be a collarbone or rib situation, although Clifford can be seen in the video holding his lower right back while walking to the locker room.

So, who knows?

The time frame for how long a quarterback would be out can vary with any of those issues.

Penn State is on a bye this week, then hosts Illinois next week. The huge question on everyone's mind is this: Can Clifford return in time for the trip to Ohio State on Oct. 30?

But there's also another huge question: How effective will he be if and when he does return? Any injury can offer challenges upon returning, but there's no telling if Clifford will be able to play at the same level he was at upon his return.

Playing out the season -- both ways

Let's look at the schedule and predict each game, depending on who's at quarterback.

Let's assume first that Ta'Quan Roberson has to play the rest of the way:

Oct. 23: vs. Illinois -- Win

Oct. 30: at No. 6 Ohio State -- Loss

Nov. 6: at Maryland -- Loss (tossup)

Nov. 13: vs. No. 8 Michigan -- Loss

Nov. 20: vs. Rutgers -- Win

Nov. 27: at No. 10 Michigan State -- Loss

The Lions could beat Maryland behind their strong defense. But losing tackle PJ Mustipher for the season weakens the unit, so at this stage I cannot predict a road win over the Terps with Roberson.

Now, what about if Clifford can play? I'm not going to include the Illinois game because that seems highly improbable at this stage.

Oct. 30: at No. 6 Ohio State -- Loss

Nov. 6: at Maryland -- Win

Nov. 13: vs. No. 8 Michigan -- Win

Nov. 20: vs. Rutgers -- Win

Nov. 27: at No. 10 Michigan State -- Win

Obviously, the schedule is tough, but I certainly can see Penn State winning out aside from Ohio State. So we're talking about potentially the difference between a 10-2 season and perhaps a 7-5 season.

What about Clifford next year?

Oh boy, this is where things get really, really interesting.

Clifford does have another year of eligibility. So, whether he can return this season and continue to show development is HUGE for his future and the future of the Lions.

The way Clifford was playing, one would have to think he was doing what he needed to do to impress NFL scouts enough that he might enter the draft after this year. Now, whether Clifford is an NFL quarterback is a whole other discussion. But the point is that if he played very well and led Penn State to a 10-2 record or so, he would have improved his draft stock.

If Clifford cannot return this season, or if he returns but still struggles from the injury, he may have no other choice but to come back to college for another season.

The domino effect of all that could be very, very interesting.

If Clifford is back, he's the starter next year. You'd think Roberson would still be the primary backup, if he sticks around and doesn't enter the transfer portal.

A lot of it depends on how well Roberson plays. If he does very well, he could decide to transfer and see if he can find a starting job somewhere else. But if Roberson struggles, then Penn State would need to go find another QB in the transfer portal. That may be difficult, since all the Lions would be offering is a backup job, and a lot of guys in the portal won't be interested in that.

What if Clifford isn't back next year?

If Clifford decides to turn pro, you'd think it's because he's able to return this season and play well. That would benefit this year's team, but would leave questions for next year.

If Clifford leaves, Roberson could be in line to start. But you also can expect Penn State to go find someone in the transfer portal to compete for the job, and you'd have to think that opportunity would be very enticing to a lot of guys in the portal.

Penn State does have 4-star recruit Drew Allar coming in next year. I cannot see a true freshman taking over as the starting QB. So Allar would have to sit at least one year. BUT ... if the Lions go out and get another quarterback from the transfer portal, you'd like to think it could be someone with more than one year of eligibility left.

If that happens, then Allar potentially sits for two seasons.

OK, let's slow down a second

I know, I know, you're probably sitting there thinking: Jeez, let's just worry about Clifford and this season, and leave the rest of this discussion for another time.

I'm just pointing out the significance and all the dominoes that could fall based on whether one guy can come back to play this season. Because again, that one guy is the most important player in the program.

What about the Franklin to USC possibility?

Alrighty, this still has to be addressed. Penn State fans may not want to think about it, or may think there's no way Franklin would leave, or whatever.

But the bottom line is, it's still possible that USC will be interested in Franklin, and vice versa.

I have already written that it would make sense. But I also believe that Franklin will be sticking around at Penn State. My primary reason for that is job security. He's got a lot of it at Penn State, and if he struggles at USC, he could be fired after two or three years.

There are so many potential ifs and unknowns with the USC situation. Would Franklin even want that job is the biggest question, and only he knows the answer.

If Clifford returns and Penn State beats Ohio State, the Lions could get to the College Football Playoff. You'd think that would keep Franklin around, given all the positive things going on at Penn State.

If the Lions lose to Ohio State and go 10-2, then Franklin would still be a good candidate at USC. Might he feel at that point that he's so tired of beating his head against the wall with the Buckeyes in the same division that he's ready for a change?

If Clifford can't return and the Lions struggle to a 7-5 finish, would USC even want Franklin? Debatable. He'd be coming off back-to-back years of 4-5 and 7-5, so maybe not.

Again, there are a whole lot of ifs in all of this. But nothing would impact the Penn State program more than if Franklin were to leave. And until USC actually does hire someone at the end of the season, we cannot forget about the possibility that it could be Franklin.