Pitt did its job starting its ACC schedule with a blowout win over Georgia Tech on the road two weeks ago. The Panthers got a week off to bask in their success before going into a stadium they haven't won in since 2015.
The Pitt-Virginia Tech series has gone back and forth over the last five years with the home team winning each matchup. The Panthers got a strong 47-14 win over the Hokies last year for Pitt's senior weekend as a send-off for the six Panthers selected in the NFL Draft. Now Pitt has its last chance to give Kenny Pickett his first win in Blackburg, Va.
When asked if there's an extra emphasis for Pitt to get a win at Lane Stadium, Pat Narduzzi said there was "no doubt about it." Beyond the historical implications, Pitt has to continue its run into the ACC with a second win to prove the program is ready to receive national respect and potentially be ranked with a 5-1 record before hosting Clemson at Heinz Field the following week.
• What: Pitt (4-1, 1-0 ACC) at Virginia Tech (3-2, 1-0 ACC)
• When: 3:32 p.m. Eastern
• Where: Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, Va.
• TV: ESPN 2
• Radio: 93.7 The Fan
• Satellite: Sirius 113, XM 201, SXM App Channel 964
• Boxscore: Sidearm Sports
• Media notes: Pitt | Virginia Tech
Top storylines
Bring the splash: Pickett and Addison are both putting up monster numbers this season and plenty of that production has come from big plays. Some offenses live on consistently dinking and dunking defenses left and right, but the Panthers have been about the long ball and the explosive play when they've been at their best.
The Panthers average 52.5 points per game, the best in the nation, and 554.5 yards per game, best in the ACC and third-best in the nation. Over Pitt's previous three games, nine touchdowns have come from passing plays from outside of the red zone. That's also while scoring touchdowns on 25 of the Panthers' 31 red zone trips this season.
Lucas Krull also factors into that equation for Pickett, as he's posted five touchdown receptions, providing a much needed boost from the tight end position that the Panthers haven't seen in years.
Virginia Tech's best hope in this game is to work with a balanced offense that keeps Pitt guessing. But if the Panthers can score in bunches quickly like they have for most of this season, that will force Hokies quarterback Braxtorn Burmeister into more predictable passing situations that Randy Bates' defense can get aggressive against.
Not the RPO?!: Western Michigan gave Pitt nightmares with the run-pass option on offense. Pitt's defense kept being lulled into a state of hesitation that gave the defense fits and allowed the Broncos to outscore the Panthers 44-41 in Pitt's only loss of the season.
Now with that tape out there, other teams will try to replicate that production. New Hampshire and Georgia Tech tried offensive sets with shells of RPOs, but weren't able to connect for big plays and didn't stick to it. Virginia Tech, however, does use those plays more often and will take advantage of opportunities Pitt gives them.
"Defensively, obviously we know the one issue we have with RPOs," Narduzzi said. "Those guys like to run RPOs as well. We'll see the same slant route that other people run. They will run some skinny posts on the outside, run something we call glances, run some dragons or slants inside. We’ve got different things in to take care of that stuff. We've been tested a little bit. We'll continue to be tested."
Virginia Tech's offense ranks 13th, next to last, in the ACC, in both scoring, total offense and rushing offense. But when the Hokies have found success is when that rushing offense has opened up opportunities for the passing game to play off that limited success. If the Panthers eliminate the run and keep the RPOs in check, it will give the offense plenty of time for Pickett to get going and light up the scoreboard.
Players to watch
Jordan Addison: He's the next great Pitt wide receiver. He's continued to put up big numbers after a strong freshman season and this game should be more of the same. Even after a bye week, Addison still leads all of college football with nine touchdown receptions as he gets ready to face the ACC's third-ranked passing defense.
That shouldn't deter Addison, who hasn't taken his success for granted after a strong freshman season in 2020.
"Last year he was a true freshman," Narduzzi said this week of Addison. "We put him in one spot, even though we wanted to move him around. Now we get to move him around a little bit. He's playing with a lot of confidence. We know he is a great player. He knows he's a great player. He actually didn't have one of his better games (at Georgia Tech)."
What's wild about Narduzzi saying that not being one of Addison's better games, is he's right. Addison posted six catches for 117 yards and a touchdown, which was the lowest amount of yards he had posted in three games, and the first time he scored less than three touchdowns since Pitt's road win over Tennessee. He's also scored a touchdown in every game Pitt's played.
"I think he put the ball on the ground twice as far as catches," Narduzzi continued. "He would like to be 100% efficient on catches that come his way on target. He's steady, he's fast, he runs great routes. He knows what he's doing. He doesn't have to think about what route he's running, how he is converting a route."
Addison's a phenomenal athlete who's getting pushed by his coaches to find ways to be better. Receivers coach Brennan Marion has told me he doesn't have to even get on Addison too much after a bad play. He just reminds Addison of his goal to be a receiver selected in the first round of the NFL Draft someday, and the sophomore corrects his mistakes.
Look for him to have a big game this week.
Erick Hallett II: Hallett will be a key to the Panthers' hopes in taking away the big play from Virginia Tech. As the Panthers' offense takes the field and scores in bunches as I predict, Hallett needs to help keep the lid on big splash plays working for the Hokies on the other end of the field.
He was seen giving up several of those plays to Western Michigan weeks ago, but has also been a good playmaker for the Panthers in other weeks. As Burmeister looks for big plays, it may be up to Hallett to be the reliable player on the back end to keep plays in front of him while Brandon Hill flies around the field delivering big hits and explosive plays.
" I've been happy with Erick Hallett" Narduzzi said of Hallett this week. "He played well. Brandon Hill has played well. Those two guys have come in and have played solid football Last year in this game at home, they kind of attacked our safeties. We had Brandon Hill and Erick Hallett both started. Seemed like we put Damar (Hamlin) into the boundary, Hallett in the field. They went after Hallett then we had to switch them. They didn't know where they were. But Hallett is a much different player than he was a year ago. He's improved greatly."
Habakkuk Baldonado: Baldonado continues to grow as the Panthers' best edge rusher on the season. Despite Deslin Alexandre being the team captain at defensive end, Baldonado leads the team with 3.5 sacks on the season. Narduzzi thinks that number could be considerably higher if the redshirt junior finishes plays more often.
"Haba (Baldonado) has been playing great," Narduzzi said this week. "I mean Haba’s been playing lights out as well. Des has been playing solid. I know he wants more. Haba missed three sacks against Georgia Tech. He could be the hero, ACC defensive end of the week if he makes those three. I know that upsets him. He's driven to fix that stuff. You got to love that. He works his tail off, kind of like Rashad Weaver, Patrick Jones, Deslin as far as the mental part of it. He will be on top of his stuff. He knows what's coming at him."
The Italian-born edge rusher has shown to be explosive and big as a pass rusher and grows in the variety of his techniques to beat offensive tackles for big plays each week. Look for that to continue in this game. Changing Burmeister's launch point will be huge to disrupting the Hokies.
Behind enemy lines
Make them earn it: As stated earlier, the Hokies' offense isn't good. But any offense can look good when they make chunk plays happen. That was Pitt's problem against Western Michigan and it was the only reason Georgia Tech kept the game relatively close in the first half two weeks ago. Pitt must eliminate those big plays and force Burmeister to beat them with long consistent drives.
The problem is, that hasn't happened a lot in Blacksburg, Va. over the years.
"It's hit-and-miss," Narduzzi said when asked about Pitt's struggles at limiting Virginia Tech's big plays over the years. "You work so hard. Last year they lined up in a three-by-one with a closed end, they ran one quarterback lead zone. We came up and stopped it. We have to eliminate the explosives. I don't want to say they've always tricked us, but they do try to trick you. Last year they called one, the backer saw it, but we just didn't cover it properly. They've always seemed to try to get one or two of them on you a game. We have to eliminate the big plays, for sure."
Two top ACC performers face off: The ACC's top quarterback and top interceptor will face off Saturday at Lane Stadium. Pickett leads the conference with 19 touchdown passes despite already having his bye week and only has one interception while all other ACC quarterbacks with 100 passing has at least two. He's not just hitting the big plays, he's limiting mistakes and consistently producing.
But now he faces the Hokies' junior cornerback Jermaine Waller, who's recorded five interception in six games, including a pick six against Notre Dame last week that almost got the Hokies a win over the No. 14 ranked Fighting Irish. Waller's an athletic 6-foot-1, 180 lbs. cornerback out of Washington, D.C. who's most likely going to shadow Addison all game.
Watch for fireworks whenever Pickett goes to Addison, because that's not just going to be about Pitt's playmakers, it's going to be a test if they can outdo Virginia Tech's best difference maker.
Prediction: Pitt 49-20
The Panthers' offense will continue to light up the scoreboard against a Virginia Tech defense that has talent but I see as an unbalanced group. Waller is impressive, but he's the primary concern on that side of the ball and can't cover everyone. Expect Krull, Taysir Mack and Jared Wayne to also get some chances for splash plays.
If Burmeister were more accurate of a quarterback, Pitt would be in a lot of trouble. But he's not even as good as Caleb Eleby from Western Michigan, and won't hurt Pitt as much even when the RPO big plays are there. Expect Pitt to get out to an early lead and for the defense to get its third straight game with a turnover returned for a touchdown.
