Playoff games are usually decided by key pitching performances or a big home run. This year, the stolen base is playing almost as big of a role.
With 31 playoff games in the books, the field has stolen 38 bases on 42 tries, an astounding 90.5% success rate. Those swiped bags have led to some pivotal runs, like in game one of the National League Championship series. Ozzie Albies got a hit, stole second and scored on a base knock. The Dodgers were on the wrong end that time, but the only reason they got to that round was because of a pivotal steal Mookie Betts had in the sixth inning of the decisive fifth game of the NL Division Series, giving his team the lead.
Hey, you want some good ol’ fashioned baseball in October? There’s been plenty of it so far. Last postseason, there was an average of 0.72 stolen bases per game. In the regular sesaon this year, it was 0.84 steals a game. This October, it's 1.23.
The steal has been a victim of the analytical movement, with teams realizing about 20 years ago that they were hurting their cause by running. The general rule of thumb is steals have to be successful about 75% of the time for it to be considered worth the risk.
That’s a very rough figure and it greatly fluctuates going by situation, based on run expectancy. If a runner on second tries to steal third with one out, they only need to be safe about two-thirds of the time for the risk to be worth it because it creates so many new scoring opportunities. If they try to steal third with two outs, they need to be safe 19 times out of 20 to break even, going by the run expectancy matrix. I examined those risks and rewards for the Pirates a few years ago and Patrick Dubuque did an update for Baseball Prospectus on how often a runner needs to be safe for the risk to be worth it.
But that 75% mark is good shorthand if nothing else. Why does this matter? Because for the first time since caught stealings were formally counted in 1951, catchers threw out less than 25% of potential base stealers in 2021:

DATA FROM BASEBALL REFERENCE
For a more concise look, here’s the past 20 years, starting with the infamous Moneyball year in 2002:

DATA FROM BASEBALL REFERENCE
From 2004 to 2019, caught stealing rates were consistently between 26-30%. That dropped to 25% in the abbreviated 2020 season and then another point in 2021, with base stealers being safe 75.7% of the time. With teams valuing pitch framing, receiving and blocking skills more than ever now, a catcher’s ability to control the running game seems to have taken a hit.
But it hasn’t really mattered. While players are more successful now than ever, they aren’t running as much. The league stole only 2,034 bases this season. Excluding strike and pandemic shortened seasons, the last time there that few stolen bags was 1973, when there were only 24 teams in the league.
One of Derek Shelton’s points of emphasis coming into 2021 was trying to be more aggressive on the bases. That had very mixed results – hence why third base coach Joey Cora is not returning to the club – but if he feels the same way for 2022, it looks like there is opportunity there.
It comes with a catch, though. The Pirates were one of the worst teams at stealing bases last year, converting just two-thirds of their attempts: 60 steals, 30 caught stealings. That was the third-worst percentage in the league and a below-average total.
Want to make that stat look even worse? Gregory Polanco was 14-for-15 on steal attempts last year. Every other Pirates was successful on only 61.3% of steal attempts.
It would definitely be an uphill climb, but you also have to consider another rate stat. Last year, just 28% of Pirate base runners came around to score, the worst mark in the majors. If they aren’t going to hit for power, they need to do small ball right.
Let’s take a look at who could potentially pick up more steals.
ANTHONY ALFORD
At the risk of oversimplifying, stealing a base comes down to three factors: Speed, the lead and the jump. Alford is the team’s fastest runner, averaging 3.84 seconds on a 90 foot sprint, putting him in the 98th percentile league wide.
Despite that, he was caught stealing (6) more times than he was safe (5). That included an astounding 0-for-5 streak against Reds catcher Tucker Barnhart to close the season. Maybe he liked the matchup. Maybe he wanted to just get something off of Barnhart. Either way, those gambles did not pay off.
Shelton cited Alford getting his spike caught off the break for one of those late-season caught stealings. It’s just one of the many things that can go wrong in that split second as a runner breaks for another base.
“I think part of Anthony's development is just learning how to steal bases, how to get good jumps,” Shelton said then.
We all know the routine with Alford by now. He has outstanding tools that need to translate into games more. This is a practical way to use his speed.
ONEIL CRUZ
It’s too early to say if Cruz will be on the opening day team or not, but he will definitely return to the majors in 2022, probably for most of the season. He can provide the Pirates with some much-needed pop, but also some speed. He was flirting with a 20-20 season in the minors before being promoted for the final weekend of the season.
“I’ll take this over that any day,” Cruz said after that first game.
KE’BRYAN HAYES
Hayes does have a 27 steal season as a professional under his belt, but that was back in 2017 before he really started to pack on muscle and fill out. Still, he has shown a knack for swiping bags, going 9-for-10 this season.
Most of those steals came in the last two months of the season because of the left wrist injury that kept him out for 60 days.
“I typically like to slide headfirst whenever I steal, so that was why I kind of, in the back of my mind, I kind of didn't want to hurt anything with that,” Hayes said in August.
Hayes has above average speed and a good feel for how to advance an extra bag. Assuming his left wrist is fully healed for spring training, as expected, then that spike in steals could continue.
BRYAN REYNOLDS
I could have chosen from a couple of players with good sprint speeds that just haven’t stolen a lot of bags in pro ball, including Michael Chavis, Kevin Newman and Hoy Park. But I decided to single out Reynolds for one specific reason: He doesn’t have to worry about taking a runner off base while Bryan Reynolds is batting.
It’s one thing to be gun shy about running the guys at the top of the order because it takes away a runner on base for Reynolds. It’s another when Reynolds is on first and the bottom half of the order is coming up. Reynolds has never been much of a base stealer, maxing out at eight in a season as a professional, but he has a great sprint speed (28.7 ft/sec) and not much protection behind him. Double-digit steals seems attainable, even if this never becomes a major part of his game.
COLE TUCKER
Out of all of the players listed, Tucker is the biggest wild card. He had a strong showing in September, seemingly securing a roster spot for next year, but his role could potentially be anything from opening day shortstop to Indianapolis depth. It’s a very wide net.
If the Pirates do want to try to steal more, Tucker could help. He stole 47 bases in 2017 and 35 the following year, but he has not been as aggressive since reaching the majors in 2019, attempting just four steals in 136 big league games. That’s a big part of his game that just hasn’t showed at the highest level.
Whether or not the Pirates tender Tucker, Newman or both will play a role in if they can count on some extra bases from their middle infield.