COLUMBUS, Ohio -- We've got a month left in the regular season, and this next month could shape the Penn State football program for the next decade or more.
The Nittany Lions have four games left -- at Maryland, home against Michigan and Rutgers, then at Michigan State. Penn State is 5-3 with a three-game losing streak after Saturday's 33-24 loss to Ohio State, and if it continues to lose a bunch of games, there's a good chance all of this discussion will be a moot point.
Because if the Lions endure a full-on collapse down the stretch, no one may even want James Franklin.
The Lions should beat Maryland and Rutgers. If they split with the Michigan teams, that's an 8-4 season. In that scenario, I do believe USC and/or LSU would still be interested in hiring Franklin.
And at this stage, I believe he would leave Penn State.
As has been the case all along, I believe the USC job fits Franklin and would give him a better chance to consistently compete for a national championship. I'm now leaning toward him taking that job, in large part because he has to know if he doesn't strike now while he's still considered a hot commodity, there's a chance he will never find himself in such a coveted position again.
So, if indeed Franklin does leave -- and that's still a big if -- who would Penn State hire to replace him?
My No. 1 choice all along has been Cincinnati coach Luke Fickell. But I have a new No. 1 on my Big Board.
I would like to see Penn State hire Carolina Panthers coach Matt Rhule.
It's probably a long shot, because Rhule makes $8.5 million a year as part of a massive seven-year, $60 million contract. The money aspect clearly would be the biggest obstacle to him coming to Penn State.
But we're talking a little bit of wishful thinking here.
He's also in the NFL, and those are football jobs where head coaches get to focus on football and football only, not recruiting, being a CEO, gladhanding boosters and all the other stuff that comes with being a college coach.
Rhule spent his career earning an NFL head coaching job, and now that he's got one, why would he leave? He was asked about that just the other day and gave a pretty convincing answer.
Here are the three biggest reasons Rhule, 46, could be interested in becoming Penn State's next coach:
1. He's a State College native who was a walk-on linebacker under Joe Paterno.
2. Coming back home as the hero is always a powerful force, and Rhule would have a chance to become a legend in his hometown if he could lead Penn State to a national title. The allure of that possibility would be incredible for just about any person with Rhule's background, although we cannot know for sure just what it would mean to him.
3. Rhule is already on the hot seat in Carolina in year two. He's making a ton of money, and that is a rebuilding job. But he went 5-11 in year one, and after a 3-0 start, the Panthers entered Sunday with a four-game losing streak. Rhule desperately needed a win to quiet the critics, and his team delivered one with a 19-13 road victory over the Falcons. That will calm people down for a few days, but if another losing streak ensues, Rhule certainly will start to feel more pressure.
Can Rhule turn things around in Carolina? Perhaps. He hasn't been there long. But if this season goes south, he may see the writing on the wall about the future. He could start thinking along the lines of, hey, if Penn State comes open now, I'd better take it because it may not come open again for a long time.
All of that certainly comes back to the question of just how badly Rhule might want to take over at his alma mater. If that's not a really big factor for him personally -- and only he knows -- then all of this conjecture would be for naught.
One last thing on Rhule: Even if the timing isn't right now, it doesn't mean the stars won't align down the road at some point. If, for instance, Franklin decides to stay at Penn State for a while longer, then it gives Rhule more time to prove himself in the NFL until the day ever comes when Franklin does decide to leave.
THE CASE FOR FICKELL
I've always been very high on Fickell and believe he would be a tremendous choice for Penn State. He's done a phenomenal job at Cincinnati, which likely will go undefeated and could make the College Football Playoff.
If Franklin doesn't get the USC job, then the Trojans very well could hire Fickell.
But if Franklin goes to USC, I don't think there's another current college head coach who would be a better fit at Penn State than Fickell. He's from Columbus, and surely would love to be Ohio State's coach someday, but Ryan Day may not leave the Buckeyes for many, many years.
Fickell played at Ohio State and was an assistant coach there from 2002-16. He also served as the Buckeyes' interim head coach in 2011, after Jim Tressell's departure.
Fickell knows the Big Ten and what it takes to win playing that style of football. If Penn State could land him, it would be a home run hire.
The money part also would make more sense with Fickell, who makes $3.4 million at Cincy and would be more affordable to Penn State, as compared to Rhule.
There would be many other candidates, no doubt, because Penn State would be a terrific job if available. We'll hear names such as Bill O'Brien, Joe Moorhead and Matt Campbell from Iowa State, and I think the best internal candidate would be defensive coordinator Brent Pry.
I'll get into some pros and cons with those other candidates at some point if it looks like there will indeed be a coaching change. But for now, I'm sticking with Rhule and Fickell as my top two choices, and I definitely think Penn State should go hard after those two guys before moving on to anyone else.
