Pitt Kickoff: Panthers' playoffs start now? taken on the South Side (Pitt)

PITT ATHLETICS

Owen Drexel (60), Gabe Houy (57), Jake Kradel (53) enter Heinz Field.

Just four games left in Pitt's regular season ACC schedule and the Panthers are in the driver's seat to win the ACC Coastal. But they cannot afford to overlook Duke, a team sitting in last place in their division, before they take on North Carolina and Virginia in the coming weeks.

Pat Narduzzi is working to keep his players focused on a singular goal, and that's this week against a Duke team that can run the football effectively even when behind on the scoreboard. Despite not winning a single ACC game yet, the Blue Devils are 3-1 at home this season while the Panthers are 3-0 on the road, something linebacker Phil Campbell and cornerback A.J. Woods say the team has taken pride in this season.

The Panthers even play 'Take Over Your Trap' in opposing locker rooms after road wins, a song by Bankroll Fresh that the Steelers played and danced to on social media after wins as displayed by players like Marcus Allen, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Chase Claypool over the last two seasons.

Let's see if they bring that same kind of energy to Wallace Wade Stadium Saturday.

What:  Pitt (6-2, 3-1 ACC) vs. Duke (3-5, 0-4 ACC)
When: 12:02 p.m. Eastern
Where: Wallace Wade Stadium
TV: ACC Network
Radio: 93.7 The Fan
Satellite: Sirius 137, XM 193, SXM App Channel 955
Boxscore: Sidearm Sports
Media notes: Pitt | Duke

Top storylines

Slim margin for error: Pitt's loss to Miami to last week put the Panthers behind the eight-ball for their final four ACC games. They still hold a lead in the ACC Coastal Division, but now a loss would drop Pitt's ACC record to 3-2 and give Virginia (4-2) and North Carolina (3-3) the open door to boot the Panthers off that top perch in the coming weeks.

Pitt can afford to lose one more game this season and still have a good shot to win the ACC Coastal, but that loss most likely needs to come from either Virginia or North Carolina, as both teams have strong-armed and dangerous quarterbacks who can attack Pitt's struggling pass defense.

That being said, the Panthers need to make sure that one loss they can spare doesn't come against a Duke team that's well within their capabilities to beat and matches up well with them. At this point, Pitt's chances to make the ACC Championship Game does come down to every single opponent despite starting 3-0 in the ACC.

"There's a lot more urgency now," linebacker Phil Campbell said Tuesday. "We were urgent after the Western Michigan loss, but we know this is it. This is our last chance. Every game from now on is a playoff game. It's good pressure to make us go out and win this whole thing." 

But when you ask Narduzzi, he's not having any of the playoffs talk.

"It's not about the next four, it's about this one game," Narduzzi said. "I don't look any further than that because if you overlook the first one the fourth one won't matter. There's no extra message. Pressure is a bad word, it's for when you're not prepared. There's no playoffs or do or die, let's play one game and worry about that one game."

The loss to Miami knocked Pitt to being unranked by the Associated Press and ruined the already slim chance the Panthers might make the College Football Playoffs. But it still can win the ACC Coastal Division, and by that logic, the ACC outright. Doing so would be a banner year that many thought was unattainable before the season, which is why Narduzzi has to keep his players' minds focused on the task at hand and not the shiny trophy at the end of the road.

Real run test for run defense: Pitt's run defense is the best in the ACC, allowing just 103.6 yards per game, and ranks 15th in the country. But in doing so, the Panthers have yet to face some of the ACC's stronger run teams. 

Duke will serve as that first big test as the Blue Devils rank fifth in the ACC with 198.3 rushing yards per game. That's led by their star running back Mataeo Durant, who's run the ball 186 times for 973 yards and nine touchdowns over eight games.

Durant and the Blue Devils love to run zone blocking concepts to wade their way through defenses and test gap integrity. Pitt fell victim to a similar play when Miami's Jaylon Knighton busted a 40-yard touchdown run up the middle through the Panthers' defense to give Miami a lead the Hurricanes never relinquished.

Against a much better running back this week, Narduzzi's aware that cannot happen again.

"Durant hugs the inside zones and takes advantage when you overrun the gap," Narduzzi said. "We did that last week so we have to stop that. They like to run the ball first and then they go to the RPOs. The more guys we put in the box, the better chance we have to be a run stuffing defense, but there are times we'll have to take our chances and take guys out of the box. It will be a guessing game, but we have to take the ball out of Durant's hands."

Pitt's certainly struggled against the pass, but this is a chance to prove that its strength on defense is a true power in the conference. If the defense can shut down Duke's rushing offense, it will send a message that the Panthers' defense can do that to any team in the conference.

"We pride ourselves in stopping the run," Campbell said. "That's a give that we're going to line up and stop the run this week. Knowing we have a good running back to go against is a good challenge and gives us more things to watch. Preparation stays the same though."

Players to watch

SirVocea Dennis: He's taken a much larger role for the Panthers than just the rotational linebacker now that Wendell Davis has transferred out of the program. Dennis will now be the primary mike linebacker on most plays and most likely the defender who will meet Durant in the hole consistently.

Even if Dennis isn't the player who's physically hitting Durant at the point of attack, his communication and keeping the defense coordinated will play a key role in the Panthers' run fits Saturday.

"His leadership and gregarious personality," Manalac said of what stands out for Dennis. "Guys look to him for leadership and his intelligence is huge. He makes in-game adjustments and tweaks the little things after seeing things on the sideline and he's become even more intelligent to do the little things that help us win."

Dennis has made his headway inside a packed Pitt linebacker room with several talented players.

 "It's not easy at all," Manalac said of Dennis playing several positions. "SirVocea is a special player. He's a sharp, intelligent football player. He can plug and play anywhere and sometimes we take that for granted when we see him play at one spot. Because he's so smart sometimes we put too much on him. But it's really impressive how he can bounce around and do more things for us. Phil (Campbell), Cam (Bright) and John (Petrishen) could all play both sides for us. It's important to them to be sharp and prepare that they know multiple spots to help the team."

If Pitt wants to win the day on the ground, Dennis and this linebacker group will need to be sharp.

Israel Abanikanda: Abanikanda didn't get the chance to shine at home against Miami last week when the Panthers fell behind 21-7 in the first half. Coming off being in concussion protocol, Abanikanda only ran the ball six times for 28 yards and a touchdown.

Narduzzi said Thursday that was only circumstantial due to Pitt being down, but it needs to be a factor moving forward for Pitt to finish strong in the coming weeks. Yes, Kenny Pickett is on fire at quarterback, but the Panthers still need balance on offense. Feeding Abanikanda, who's averaged over four yards per carry for five consecutive games, would play into that balance.

Jake Kradel: Normally the run game would be limited to a key back, but it would be a mistake to not mention the progress of Pitt's offensive line. That's been a major role in Abanikanda's emergence this season, as well as freshman running back Rodney Hammond Jr. and protecting Pickett.

Pitt's currently allowed only 15 sacks through eight games this season, which is the fifth-fewest in the ACC. The offensive line is full of players who are used to playing together, including seniors Carter Warren, Owen Drexel, Gabe Houy, and redshirt junior Jake Kradel. Add graduate transfer Marcus Minor, and you have a tough group coached by Dave Borbely clearing the way for the Panthers.

"I've been with these guys for four years," Kradel said of his offensive line. "I was on third team with Gabe Houy when we first got here. Owen Drexel was with me taking reps on the second team for years. Just being with these guys and working with them every day sets up where we're going and working every day."

Pitt's offensive line was suspect to start the season, but now the group is blocking more consistently for Pitt's backs and protecting Pickett from various blitzes with more consistency.

"It's awesome to see all the hard work pay off," Kradel said. "We were always together knowing our time was coming if we kept working. Now it's working and we're still going because we're still not at our best. We have so much room to improve so we just say 'let's have a great day today,' every day."

Behind enemy lines

Big time RB coming: Durant is a big back at 6-foot-1, 195 lbs. who can start, stop and start again. He's also become the focal point of Duke's offense, as Duke's passing game is even based off how Durant will wear down defenses even when the Blue Devils are behind on the scoreboard.

"The Durant kid, tailback, No. 21, he's their workhorse," Narduzzi continued. "They're going to ride him until he needs a blow and he taps out, someone else will come in. He does a nice job running the football, reading the zone play, being patient, finding holes. He's a good tailback. We'll have to wire them up in there and be good versus the run as well as trying to stop the RPOs they're going to throw behind you. Their run game is good." 

RPOs based off a strong run game could strike right at the hear of Pitt's defensive struggles. But if the Panthers stamp out that run game, it will never take hold and it puts Duke's quarterback, Gunnar Holmberg with six touchdown passes and six interceptions, behind the eight ball.

"He stands out tremendously," linebacker coach Ryan Manalac said of Duke's Durant. "He's the heart and soul of what they do. He's getting the football for a lot of carries. He's the guy unless he's fatigued. He runs hard, downhill and uses his off-hand one to avoid blockers and is good in protection. He's a complete running back and a great challenge for us."

Durant will also be a featured receiving threat, as his 190 receiving yards on 19 catches is third-most on the Blue Devils.

"They'll run him on wheel routes out of the backfield," Narduzzi said of how Duke will work the ball to Durant. "They love T-shoots and have hit us years ago for it. He's a great player and we have to know where he is all the time in the passing game and the run game. He's an NFL back."

Get to Shaka: The Blue Devils' leading tackler is redshirt junior Shaka Heyward, who stands tall at 6-foot-4, 220 lbs. He's fast, lengthy, can play the pass and bring down runners in the hole. His 66 total tackles is tied for sixth-most in the ACC with Clemson's James Skalski, who's been a respected linebacker in the conference for years.

If Pitt wants to control Duke's defense, it will start with neutralizing Heyward as a centralizing presence for the Blue Devils, especially in the run game. This will come down to the abilities of Kradel, Drexel and Minor working together to double team Duke defensive tackles and then chip effectively to the second level to wall off Heyward.

Do that, and the Blue Devils' best strength on defense will be neutralized and Pitt's offense that ranks at the top of the ACC with 43.9 points per game will have a field day.

Prediction: Pitt 35-14

Duke isn't a good team and its best strengths on offense play right into Pitt's best strengths on defense. That's a matchup nightmare for the Blue Devils as they don't have an accurate passer in Holmberg.

Accurate passers have been the bane of Pitt this season, and without one, I don't see many ways Duke will get on the board. While Duke's defense ranks dead last in the ACC with 33.3 points per game with 294.5 passing yards per game. 

Simply, Duke's weaknesses on defense play right into the hands of Pitt's strengths on offense, while Duke's strength matches what Pitt is good at stopping on defense. Expect Pickett and company to light it up early, and then switch it to Abanikanda and the ground game to grind out the rest of the way while still putting up points and Pitt gets back into the win column.

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