The Pirates’ roster crunch is underway, already adding infielder Diego Castillo while outrighting seven players and designating another for assignment thus far. The biggest batch of moves should come next week though, as prospects must be added to the 40-man roster by Nov. 19 or they will be exposed to the Rule 5 draft.
A year ago, the Pirates protected just two players: Right-hander Max Kranick and infielder Rodolfo Castro, both of whom got an extended cameo in the majors despite starting in Class AA Altoona. That was a product of a farm system that didn’t have that much inherited talent in the upper levels and no 2020 minor-league season for prospects to try to establish themselves.
That isn’t the case this time around. While many of the Pirates’ top prospects spent the year in either Class A or AA, there is a sizable batch of notable players who need to be added this year. I’ll be examining those prospects in my next story.
But before then, we first have to see how many spots the Pirates have available. Who on this roster is safe, and who is in danger of being let go?
THEY’RE SAFE
RHP David Bednar, LHP Steven Brault, RHP JT Brubaker, INF Diego Castillo, INF Rodolfo Castro, RHP Blake Cederlind, UTL Michael Chavis, RHP Roansy Contreras, SS Oneil Cruz, RHP Wil Crowe, 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes, RHP Mitch Keller, RHP Max Kranick, UTL Tucupita Marcano, RHP Luis Oviedo, OF Bryan Reynolds, C Jacob Stallings, RHP Chris Stratton, RHP Bryse Wilson, RHP Miguel Yajure
Of the 40 players on the roster, 20 of them should be all but guaranteed to remain through the tender deadlines. There is a chance we could see a Stratton or Brault pop up in trade rumors, but that would be for a decision later this offseason. For now, this core consists mostly of young players, many of whom were added to the roster within the last year.
THEY’RE GONE
RHP Tanner Anderson, C Taylor Davis
On the flip side, we can safely say these players are not going to be tenured another contract. Anderson and Davis were both called up in September because of injuries. Neither is a prospect and they were brought in just to provide some depth.
PROBABLY SAFE
Now things get a bit trickier. I’m dividing these final18 players into two categories: The probables and the questionables. We’ll start with the ones who are most likely coming back, but that we can’t write into stone yet. I wouldn’t be surprised if a couple players here are booted, depending on how many prospects the Pirates want to protect.
OF Greg Allen/RHP Eric Hanhold
I’m rolling both of last week’s waiver claims into one spot. The Pirates obviously liked them enough to put in the claim, but there is the possibility they could do to them what they did to Troy Stokes Jr. and Ashton Goudeau last year and try to sneak them through waivers. That way they would keep them in their player pool but not commit a roster spot to them. For now though, it’s safe to say the Pirates didn’t spend the money to make a waiver claim just to release them a week after.
OF Anthony Alford
Alford went from being designated for assignment in April to ending the year as the everyday left fielder. He ended the year on a high note, posting an .853 OPS with four homers over the final month of the season. If he can do that over a full season, then the Pirates will have two-thirds of their outfield covered with him and Reynolds. If he doesn’t, well, there are prospects on the doorstep in Indianapolis.
LHP Anthony Banda
Banda was one of the subjects of a recent Mound Visit, so read that if this lefty intrigues you. He won’t ever reach his former ceiling of a top 100 prospect, but he has the stuff to be more than just a run of the mill lefty reliever. A new pitching motion seemed to help him in his new role with the Pirates.
OF Ben Gamel
I could see Gamel being on the trade market for a team looking for a veteran fourth outfielder, but the Pirates could also use one while they wait for their batch of outfield prospects to become major league ready. Gamel was a good guy to have around in 2021, and with one year of team control remaining, he presents virtually no risk.
RHP Chad Kuhl
After being demoted to the bullpen midseason, there’s a more than decent chance that Kuhl will not be reporting to Bradenton come February, either via non-tender or trade. I could see him drawing trade interest, posing little risk on what will essentially be a one year, $3 million or so deal, but the return would be minimal. If that’s the route the Pirates take, is it worth potentially risking a prospect via the Rule 5 draft just to potentially bring in a fringe player.
RHP Nick Mears
The Pirates gave Mears some late inning opportunities at the end of the season, to mixed results. He has big stuff, but his ERA was north of 5.00 in both Indianapolis and the majors. This is going to be a big year for him, but with the bullpen in flux, he should get another opportunity in 2022.
1B Colin Moran
Injuries and a late-season slump derailed what was a promising start to Moran’s 2021 season, and now after four seasons with the Pirates, he’s been worth just 0.2 WAR. Is this the offseason where the Pirates move on, or do they hang onto him because of the likelihood that the designated hitter is coming. Whether or not they re-sign Yoshi Tsutsugo could play a role here.
UTL Hoy Park
Park was outrighted off the Yankees’ roster before being acquired by the Pirates in the Clay Holmes trade in July. The Pirates could probably do the same if they so desired, but they value his defensive versatility and he started strong offensively before losing 10 pounds over the final two months of the season. He could be a good role player and I don’t see him going anywhere this winter.
LHP Dillon Peters
Peters had his season cut short with a lower-back strain, but when he was actually on the mound, he did basically all the Pirates could ask of him. It was a very small sample size, but he pitched to a 3.71 ERA and 3.66 FIP over his six starts in the majors, though he never pitched more than five innings in an outing. Peters is most likely a swingman, but for a team that needs starting pitching depth, do you want to ditch someone who did well in his brief time with his new club?
SS Cole Tucker
A few months ago, it looked like Tucker was nearing the end of his time with the Pirates, but after a year of focusing on offensive development and leveraging his body, things finally started to click. He played well over the final month of the season, and if those final weeks are an indicator, there’s still hope for him to be a good major league player. With that said, it’s 2022 or bust for him. The middle infield jobs should be up for grabs in spring training, but there are a wave of prospects who will be ready to compete for those jobs in 2023. If Tucker can’t firmly establish that he is the guy by then, then that should be a wrap with his stint as a Pirate.
ON THE EDGE
Here’s where the real decisions will have to be made, and some of these decisions will come down to exactly how many prospects the Pirates want to protect. While most, if not all, of the players listed in the above section will be brought back, these final seven are either in the questionable or doubtful range.
UTL Phillip Evans
Evans started hot but quickly collapsed, finishing with a .206/.312/.299 slash line. The Pirates also have several players who fill his utility role now, like Park, Chavis, Marcano and Castillo. His fate was more or less sealed when he was optioned back to Indianapolis in September.
LHP Sam Howard
Like Banda, I’ll refer you back to my recent Mound Visit for more in-depth analysis on Howard. I don’t want to repeat too many points, but the question is going to come down to is do the Pirates feel like he can replicate that success he had at the beginning or end of the season, or did that middle half scare them away?
SS Kevin Newman
Newman’s fate with the Pirates may come down to if the team feels like Cruz has a legit shot at making the opening day team. If Cruz wins the job, Newman is left basically as a backup, where he doesn’t have as much defensive versatility as Tucker or Park. The Gold Glove nomination was well-deserved, but it’s not enough to justify keeping him if he’s going to hit just .226 with a sub-.600 OPS again.
It's worth mentioning the real non-tender deadline is Dec. 2, so perhaps some of the arbitration eligible players, like Newman, hang around until then. Most of the roster decisions will come next week though because of the prospect angle, though.
C Michael Pérez
Pérez was worth -2 defensive runs saved, -1.7 framing runs and slashed .143/.221/.290. The Pirates don’t have any major league ready catching prospects, so this spot will have to be filled with a catcher to back up Jacob Stallings. Still, Pérez did not impress in his first season with the Pirates.
OF Jared Oliva
Oliva was one of three players -- along with Tucker and Kevin Kramer -- who stayed behind in Bradenton in April to work on offensive development. He did well in that camp and was supposed to join the alternate training site in mid-April, but an oblique injury derailed the early part of the season. While he did finish the year strong, he didn’t get another call up to the majors in September, being passed over for Alford and signing Tsutsugo. That’s never a good sign.
RHP Cody Ponce
Ponce has one option year remaining and can pitch out of the rotation or the bullpen, so he does provide some depth. While he had some intriguing peripherals in the majors, he had a 4.71 ERA with Class AAA Indianapolis and a 7.04 ERA over 15 appearances with the Pirates. Perhaps he could click as a reliever, as there are some good pitches there, but he’s 27 and will probably profile as a low-ceiling guy. Cherington has tended to back away from those types
RHP Duane Underwood Jr.
Underwood was a bullpen inning eater who got occasional leverage roles before right shoulder inflammation cut his season short. A couple of ugly outings inflated his ERA to 4.33, but his longest streak without allowing a run was just four outings. With a young rotation and pitching depth concerns, does it make sense to let go of someone who will give you 70-80 innings?
FINAL PREDICTION
Davis and Anderson are the two gimmies, and Oliva or Evans are safe bets to be non-tendered after they were left in Indianapolis in September. Stallings will probably have a new backup for 2022, but Pérez’s spot would need to go to another catcher and doesn’t help during the prospect crunch right now.
I’ll predict Newman and either Allen or Hanhold are taken off the roster, opening up six potential spots for prospects or other 40-man additions.
