COLUMBUS, Ohio -- After losing three straight games, and winning just two of their past 10, the Penguins are one of eight NHL teams with a points percentage below .500. They've won only five of their 15 total contests.
Though the season has yet to hit the 20-game mark, the Penguins have dug themselves a hole that may be too steep to climb out of in the not-so-distant future. According to MoneyPuck.com, their chances of making the postseason have dropped to 41.9%. That figure only tops New Jersey (38.6%) and Columbus (30.8%) among Metropolitan Division teams.
Sure, the Penguins have dealt with a COVID outbreak along with a lengthy list of injuries to almost all of their top players, but unfortunately the standings don't reward sympathy points. That said, this team is a bit harder to get a read on than many of the blanket statements made about them on social media would suggest.
The Penguins have, for the most part, outperformed the opposition in terms of shot quality, as they boast the NHL's eighth-highest expected goals share at 53% during five-on-five play, per Evolving-Hockey.com. Of course, anyone who has watched the Penguins this season knows they've rarely been able to put together a complete 60-minute performance where they didn't become totally disinterested in playing the sport for a 15-20 minute stretch, and that shows in their 25th ranked actual goals share at 46.1%.
Their power play that has converted on one of their past 28 opportunities, is the worst in the NHL. However, their penalty kill is the second best in the NHL.
Casey DeSmith has been a disaster in his three starts, and Tristan Jarry's play is trending in the wrong direction after a surprisingly positive start to the season.
Mike Sullivan said the Penguins need to bring urgency and swagger to their bout against Montreal on Thursday. While that's true, the most important thing is that they start capitalizing on a few more of their chances.
Having scored 42 goals on 47.2 expected goals at all situations this season, the Penguins simply can't afford to continue to be poor finishers if the net results of their goaltending situation will come out average at best.
The Penguins caught lightning in a bottle to start the season as both their finishing and goaltending were performing well above expectations, but everyone wondered how long it would last with the state of their roster. It took eight games until the finishing luck ran dry:
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No Penguins forward has scored more than an entire goal above what they were expected to score based on the quality of shots they've taken, but the more concerning factor is that three of their top-six mainstays, Jeff Carter, Jason Zucker, and Bryan Rust, are all underperforming in the goal column. Combined, those three have scored 5.4 fewer goals than expected:
There was zero chance Carter would carry over the goal scoring performance that made him a Penguins cult hero after being acquired last season, but with as much ice time he will continue to log in the absence of Evgeni Malkin, the Penguins need him to find a happy medium.
Rust has developed into a slightly above average finisher that generates plenty of quality chances, leading to solid goal scoring rates. Currently, his -2.1 goals scored above expected ranks last on the team. I suspect it won't take long for the puck to start hitting the back of the net for him, but the hockey gods couldn't have picked a worse time for his luck to run dry.
I find Zucker's case to be the most interesting of the three. After looking like a force and potting six goals in 15 games alongside Sidney Crosby during the 2019-20 season, Zucker had one of the worst seasons of his career due to injury and a dysfunctional partnership with Malkin. Despite that, his goal scoring still came out ahead of what was expected, just like nearly every other season of his career. It appears Zucker's two-way play driving prowess from his Minnesota days has returned for the time being, but the goals are lagging behind expectations.
Like Rust, I believe Zucker will break even eventually, but that's not exactly an easy pill to swallow for a player that cost a first-round pick and a prospect to acquire and counts $5.5 million against the salary cap.
Even considering COVID and injuries, it's perplexing that the Penguins have struggled in this department thus far because they were one of the very best finishing teams in the league last season, evidenced from HockeyViz.com (the darker the red, the more likely the Penguins were to score from that area than league average, whereas the darker the blue, the less likely the Penguins were to score from that area):
It's quite the contrast from the Penguins' likelihood to score from those same areas this season:
HockeyViz.com
If expected metrics aren't your thing, the same issue is uncovered by comparing the shooting percentages of the Penguins' forwards this season to their career shooting percentages. Players shouldn't necessarily be shooting at their career average, but it does provide a solid baseline for comparison. Of the 14 Penguins forwards to play at least 50 minutes this season, half of them are shooting below their career average:
This problem is even more glaring when all six of the forwards at the top of the lineup aren't moving the needle whatsoever in terms of plus finishing. It sure would be nice to have a guy like Jared McCann around.
That has to change, and I'm confident it will, but it needs to happen in short order. I'm not ready to write off a team that is outshooting and outchancing their competition, let alone generating quality shots at a rate higher than two thirds of the league, but the reality is that the Penguins don't have the luxury for their finishing struggles to go on for several more games.
It's clear the Penguins won't be stealing many games with their goaltending, and there are some uncertainties across the blue line. Their forward depth is fine, but the only way they get back on the right track is to rely on the top of the lineup to go far above and beyond what they've accomplished to this point of the season.
