ALTOONA, Pa. -- Back in the summer, Pro Football Focus dissed Sean Clifford something fierce when it ranked him as the 88th best quarterback in college football for this season. Even coming off a rough 2020, there's no way he could be that bad, right?
If you look back at those rankings now with the benefit of hindsight, they're actually quite comical in a lot of ways. The list is just one of many head-scratching examples of why Pro Football Focus, while highly regarded and heavily cited, is often considered to be a joke by many people because of how inaccurate it is with some information and projections.
(Go ahead and click on the list if you want a good chuckle, then come on back here and keep reading. While you're there and shaking your head at the top 20, make sure to note that Pitt's Kenny Pickett is way down at No. 52.)
OK, so PFF had Clifford at No. 88 back then. Now that he's played the entire regular season, we can look back and see if that harsh ranking really was all that harsh.
These numbers are according to NCAA statistics.
Clifford ranks 67th in the nation in passing efficiency (137.78).
Yikes. I'll be honest, having not checked that stat all season, I was surprised he's that low.
Why? Because we all thought Clifford was playing better this season, didn't we?
Let's keep looking at the numbers.
In passing yards per completion, Clifford ranks 74th (11.79).
In yards per pass attempt, he ranks 75th (7.35).
That is brutal, to be honest, in an offense that likes to throw the ball deep for explosive plays. But the number is so, so low because Penn State had no running game, and short throws had to be utilized to basically account for a running game.
Things get a little better -- in some cases but not all -- the more numbers we look at.
• Completion percentage: 59th (62.4)
• Completions per game: 27th (20.58)
• Passing TDs: 38th (20)
• Passing yards: 30th (2912)
• Passing yards per game: 40th (242.7)
• Points responsible for: 56th (134)
• Points responsible for per game: 62nd (11.2)
• Total offense: 46th (253.6)
Look, you can analyze all these numbers and come to whatever conclusion you want.
Here's my conclusion: Sean Clifford is an average college quarterback. I wrote that several times before the season, based on his numbers from the previous two years (see those below). And in some metrics, his numbers got worse this year, so one actually could make the case that he's slightly below average in those areas.
Place blame for that on whatever, including Penn State's poor offensive line and awful running game.
But Clifford's numbers are Clifford's numbers. In sports, you cannot hide from your statistics, no matter how you try to reason them away.
There's also this very, very important statistic: Clifford is 21-12 in three seasons as Penn State's starting quarterback. That includes 11-10 over the past two seasons.
When you take all of this into consideration, I believe it's pretty clear what needs to happen.
One way or another, Clifford should not be Penn State's starting quarterback next season.
He still has another year of college eligibility, so if he wants to return, he potentially could.
But if that's the case, then I believe James Franklin would need to have a meeting with the young man, thank him for all he's done for the program -- from his work ethic and toughness to his leadership -- and say, "We're going to move on without you."
If Clifford wants to play another year of college ball, therefore, he should transfer. Whether he wants to or not. There would be suitors, for sure, given his experience, and he could land in a nice spot.
Penn State knows what it has in Clifford. It has an average quarterback. There's simply no denying this looking at all of his numbers over the past three years and seeing how he stacks up in the NCAA rankings.
If you're thinking to yourself: What if Clifford comes back for one more year and has a Kenny Pickett type of season?
No.
I'm sorry. But no.
Because here's the problem with it:
If Clifford is still around, then Penn State can kiss its hopes goodbye of landing any kind of quality quarterback from the transfer portal this offseason. No one of any stature or experience is going to come to Penn State if a quarterback is there who's already started for three years.
There will be, without question, better quarterbacks in the transfer portal than Clifford. Guys who have proven themselves elsewhere but, for whatever reason, things didn't work out.
Oklahoma's Spencer Rattler is the obvious big name. He was the projected Heisman frontrunner and No. 1 pick in the draft at the beginning of the season, then lost his starting job to freshman Caleb Williams.
Franklin and Mike Yurcich would love to get a crack at Rattler, whether that's feasible or not. And it may not even be possible.
But it WILL NOT be possible, guaranteed, if Clifford returns. Rattler and UCF's Dillon Gabriel and every other quality quarterback in the portal wouldn't even consider Penn State in that situation.
But if Clifford moves on -- either to the pros or another college -- then Franklin and Yurcich could go give their sales pitch to a whole bunch of outstanding targets and offer them the golden opportunity to come in and start right away. Other schools will be promising that to guys in the portal, as well, so there are no assurances Penn State would get the cream of the crop quarterback.
But I believe strongly that it could land someone better than Clifford, who is, again, an average college quarterback.
Christian Veilleux, who will be a sophomore, could have a chance to compete for the starting job with whoever transfers in.
For those of you out there who would rather have Drew Allar or Beau Pribula come in and start as a freshman, I will say what I've always said on that subject. True freshmen quarterbacks deserve time to sit, watch, learn and figure things out, rather than be thrown into the fire right off the bat at a major program.
Penn State's first game next year is on the road at Purdue. It travels to Auburn in week three, hosts Ohio State in week five and travels to Michigan in week six. That is a brutal schedule for any quarterback, let alone a true freshman, and the last thing Franklin will want to do is ruin a kid like Allar by the halfway point of his freshman season.
We'll see how all of this plays out, and what Clifford decides to do after the bowl game. But whether it's his decision or not, the bowl game needs to be his final game at Penn State, then the program needs to move on and go in a different direction.
MORE NUMBERS
For those interested, these were Clifford's NCAA rankings the past two years, from a story I wrote last December. As you can see, when I say he's always been an average quarterback, these numbers back it up.
2020 STATISTICS
• Passing efficiency: 50th (137.4)
• Points responsible for: 40th (118)
• Points responsible for per game: 45th (13.1)
• TD passes: 34th (16)
• Passing yards: 48th (1,883)
• Passing yards per game: 56th (209.2)
• Pass yards per completion: 59th (12.39)
• Completion percentage: 63rd (60.6)
• Total offense: 43rd (246.4)
2019 STATISTICS
• Passing efficiency: 27th (148.5)
• Points responsible for: 31st (172)
• Points responsible for per game: 29th (14.3)
• TD passes: 32nd (23)
• Passing yards: 58th (2,654)
• Passing yards per game: 55th (221.2)
• Pass yards per completion: 18th (14.04)
• Completion percentage: 75th (59.2)
• Total offense: 43rd (254.7)
