Mike Tomlin made it clear in his Tuesday press conference at the Rooney Sports Complex that the Steelers' last outing against the Chiefs isn't one for the team to glean too much upon, seeing as the upcoming rematch at Arrowhead Stadium in the playoffs Sunday night as a chance for a "reboot."
If the Steelers have any hope of beating the Chiefs in this redo, they'll have to force turnovers, as only two of the Steelers' nine wins this season have come in games where they didn't finish with an advantage in the turnover column. In their 36-10 loss to the Chiefs on Dec. 26, the Steelers lost that battle 3-0.
T.J. Watt, Cam Heyward, Alex Highsmith and the NFL's leading sack-producing unit for a fifth consecutive season will play a big role in that, but so will the Steelers' coverage unit. That pass defense finished ninth in the NFL in yards allowed and seventh in touchdowns allowed, despite facing seven of the NFL's top ten quarterbacks in passing yardage and six of the NFL's top ten quarterbacks in passing touchdowns.
Much of that is thanks to the Steelers' safeties, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Terrell Edmunds, who despite not having a ton of splash this season, have been major difference makers for what they've done in coverage. If there's hope to catch Mahomes on an off day, it stems from their chemistry as a tandem of safeties to create success on the back-end of this defense.
When you look at their season-long numbers, both safeties were examples of players who limited what opposing quarterbacks were doing when targeting either player. Edmunds allowed 34 catches on 45 targets this season for only 277 yards, the sixth-fewest among starting safeties who played at least 600 snaps this season. His 8.1 yards allowed per catch was also the lowest among that same group. His ability to cover running backs, receivers and tight ends allowed for Fitzpatrick's range as a deep safety to still be a big factor for the Steelers' defense.
"That kind of comes with the strong safety position," Tomlin said Tuesday of Edmunds' versatility. "At least in terms of how it is utilized in our scheme. Minkah is a middle of the field player and keeps a lid on everything and ties things together. T.E.’s challenges are coverage related usually around a tight end and there's some dynamic ones and he always runs to that fight. He doesn't run away from it. I love his attitude regarding the last week, but obviously this is a new week and so he'll be challenged in a big way that way."
Fitzpatrick only finished with two interceptions this season, the first of his three years with the Steelers when he didn't have at least five, but was still a dangerous game changer of a safety. His biggest play of the Steelers' 16-13 win over the Ravens was undoubtedly his breakup on Marquise Brown late in the fourth quarter on a play that would've put the Ravens with a good chance to gain a few more yards and set Justin Tucker up with a field goal that could've ended the Steelers' season.
You've no doubt seen the play and the replay angle that shows Fitzpatrick punching through Brown's hands to force the drop, but what makes the play even more impressive is how much ground Fitzpatrick covered to make that play happen. Watch this play when Tyler Huntley properly read and targeted Brown behind Joe Haden in the Steelers' cover two zone defense. Fitzpatrick is responsible for half of the field for the Steelers, but you can see him cover all of it when he broke to the sideline to make that play:
That kind of range is difficult to game plan against. As is his ability to punch the ball out from so many different angles as he has this season. Tomlin attributed that skill to both his natural talents and what he's grown to be within the Steelers' defense.
"Both," Tomlin said when asked if Fitzpatrick's ability to punch the ball out was his own talent or something the Steelers cultivated. "But that's not the first time we witnessed that. He made a big significant fourth down play late in the game when we were in Cleveland a number of weeks ago. We get used to seeing Minkah make significant plays like that. Not that his work is not appreciated, we could just anticipate it and we’ve seen enough of it to know that’s coming and it’s needed."
But again, Fitzpatrick being able to do that comes as a result of Edmunds being able to take on so many different versatile roles in the Steelers' defense. Remember when tight ends were the bane of the Steelers' existence for several years during the 2010s? They haven't been for years now, and Edmunds has been a big factor in that turnaround. Even this year when the defense hasn't ranked nearly as high as it did in 2020 or 2019, the Steelers' numbers against tight ends have been solid.
The Steelers allowed 811 receiving yards and four touchdowns to tight ends this season, which was the eleventh-fewest yards and the sixth-fewest touchdowns allowed in the NFL. That's also with facing four of the NFL's leading tight ends in receiving yardage in Mark Andrews, Noah Fant, Darren Waller and Cole Kmet. Andrews' nine touchdowns was the most of the position this season, but none of them came against the Steelers and Fant's game against the Steelers was his fifth-lowest performance of the season in yards.
Andrews recorded 85 receiving yards against the Steelers Sunday, but he wasn't allowed to be a gamebreaker for the Ravens because Edmunds continued to either make tackles on him or break up passes. Watch this play when Huntley found Andrews sitting comfortable underneath the Steelers' zone, but Edmunds properly read the play and came over Andrews' shoulder for the breakup:
Edmunds has been battling with Andrews in one-on-one situations since they were both drafted into the NFL in 2018, so he's very familiar with facing the Pro Bowl tight end.
The Ravens will try to use Andrews size and speed to create mismatches on opposing defenses who lack players who can pair enough height and weight to jump and bang with Andrews while also running with him in the open field. Watch Edmunds do just that to Andrews on wheel route, when he perfectly pinned Andrews to the sideline and fought through his hands when the ball arrived to make sure it was an incomplete pass:
Those are the elements to Edmunds' game that make him a bit of an eraser in the Steelers' defense and an important role player.
If that was an average NFL safety who couldn't take on the versatile matchups that Edmunds does, the Steelers' defense has another leaky problem to go along with its NFL-worst run defense. But because Edmunds can take on several different matchups, that allows for the Steelers to trust him in schemes enough to let Fitzpatrick be the centerfielder he's meant to be as a playmaker.
That will be vital to the game plan against the Chiefs, who trust Patrick Mahomes to make throws that test defenses all over the field. The Chiefs will presumably have Travis Kelce back Sunday night, who missed the previous game due to COVID-19. Andrews has ascended to being on Kelce's level as a threat of a tight end, which means Edmunds is going to have to be on point this week to limit what he does. The Steelers did a fine job limiting Tyreek Hill in their first matchup as the superstar receiver caught only two passes for 19 yards.
The problems in pass defense came with Mahomes hitting his secondary receivers Mecole Hardman who caught three passes for 31 yards and a touchdown, and Byron Pringle who caught six passes for 75 yards and a touchdown. If the Steelers are going to reboot their plan against the Chiefs, this is the one part that shouldn't change. The defense needs to force Mahomes to win with those receivers rather than two of the best at their positions in Kelce and Hill.
While Kelce gets attention from Edmunds with occasional switches to Devin Bush, Joe Schobert, Marcus Allen and Tre Norwood, the Steelers can rely on Ahkello Witherspoon, Joe Haden and/or Cameron Sutton to handle and limit Hill with Fitzpatrick helping overtop when the proper alignments require his assistance.
But there will be opportunities in Sunday night's game for Fitzpatrick to lurk over the middle on crossing patterns where Mahomes will test him and give him opportunities to flip the game in the Steelers' favor. Here's another example when Mahomes saw Pringle run the right deep crossing pattern behind Schobert who was stuck in zone coverage, but Fitzpatrick was there to get his hand on the ball and erase the big play:
Mahomes is a great quarterback who can fit a ball in any passing window at any time. But no quarterback is perfect, and there are times when that confidence can backfire.
The Super Bowl champion Chiefs quarterback threw the ninth-most interceptions this year with 13 this season. Some weren't his fault, but that's also been part of his previous fortune of several dropped interceptions in previous seasons coming back on him in 2021. This is where Fitzpatrick can look for possible mistakes in the depths of routes of the Chiefs' secondary receivers, bobbled or tipped passes, or flat out misses from Mahomes that can create turnover chances.
Here's an example of when that situation came about in the Steelers' first matchup against the Chiefs. Watch how Fitzpatrick and Edmunds drop back into their deep half coverage responsibilities, each taking a half of the field. Mahomes reads them and sees Hardman's post pattern up the middle of the field as the perfect way to attack that deep cover two safety look. But FItzpatrick read the play, broke on it, and almost came up with the interception as Mahomes missed on the throw:
The Steelers have needed some chaos on defense and special teams in some of their most impressive wins this season.
Against the three-seed Bills in the season opener they got a recovered fumble off a Watt strip-sack and a blocked punt, while they got four turnovers against the one-seed Titans who currently sit on their bye week. If the Steelers hope to recreate that kind of chaos on the Chiefs, it's going to take all parties involved.
But the safeties especially will play a major role in Edmunds taking away or at least limiting underneath options and Mahomes' tendency to find Kelce for big plays. If the Steelers can do that and stop the run against the Chiefs, Fitzpatrick might get more of those opportunities to be an X-factor safety who can flip a game around with spectacular interceptions and give the Steelers' offense some short fields to work with in a playoff game.
Even if Fitzpatrick and Edmunds aren't themselves the turnover creators, their efforts to make life harder for Mahomes to find open receivers could force him to hold onto the ball just a tad longer, giving Watt, Heyward and Highsmith a better chance to force turnovers themselves in the backfield.
