The Steelers face a daunting task both offensively and defensively for Sunday's Wild Card playoff game in Kansas City against the Chiefs.
Kansas City defeated the Steelers, 36-10, in Week 16 at Arrowhead Stadium and the Chiefs are 12 1/2-point favorites this time around.
The Chiefs (12-5) also finished fourth in the NFL in scoring offense at 28.2 points per game, while the Steelers (9-7-1) were well down the list at 20.4 points per game.
And since 2008, there have been 18 times teams have met in a rematch after one team won by 17 or more points in the regular season. That winner in the first meeting has won 15 of those 18 rematches, including the last 13 straight.
But that doesn't mean there aren't ways the Steelers can't pull off the upset. After all, the last 30 times a team has been favored by 12 or more points in the postseason, the they are 15-14-1 against the point spread.
The key might not be necessarily on the Steelers offense doing more than it did in the first meeting -- though it can't turn the ball over three times compared to none for the Chiefs. The Steelers defense will be equally, if not more important.
There were five fumbles in that first meeting, two by the Steelers and three by the Chiefs. Kansas City recovered all five.
Couple that with an interception thrown by Ben Roethlisberger that Kansas City converted into its second touchdown and a 14-0 lead, and the Chiefs outscored the Steelers 17-0 off turnovers in that game.
The Steelers know that even if their offense turns the ball over, they can't allow Kansas City to turn them into touchdowns. It's hard enough playing against the Chiefs offense as it is.
"Hopefully we can do that. If they get good field position, make them go up by 3s," said defensive coordinator Keith Butler, who missed last week's 16-13 overtime regular season finale win over the Ravens while in COVID-19 protocols.
"We had a chance to do the first touchdown they scored. We hit the running back in the backfield and tackled each other off of him and he runs in for a touchdown. There are some things we’ve got to do defensively, and one of them is that when they get in position to score, we’ve got to make them get 3 not 7 if we can."
The play to which Butler referred was this beauty, where inside linebacker Robert Spillane correctly shoots the gap and hits Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the backfield, only to be tackled at the same time by teammate Alex Highsmith and pulled off the running back. That allowed Edwards-Helaire to walk into the end zone for a score.
Instead of being third-and-goal from the 3 or 4, the Chiefs led 7-0.
It was that kind of day for the Steelers.
"The real question is what went right in that game? I can’t say it enough. When it rained, it poured," said defensive captain Cam Heyward. "As a defense, we didn’t get off (the field). Penalties. They were able to run the ball. We didn’t get enough pressure on the quarterback. On offense, they feel like they didn’t play well. They didn’t put up points. Special teams, we started the game missing a field goal. All that combined, it’s not good for winning any type of football game."
Especially not against that team in their building and when you're minus-three in turnover ratio.
The Steelers forced multiple turnovers in four of their final five games. The one game in which they failed to force a single turnover was against Kansas City.
Their record over the past two seasons when they've forced two or more turnovers in a game -- regardless of how many turnovers they've had themselves -- is 14-2.
The Chiefs are 3-4 this season when they've forced one or fewer turnovers in a game and 9-1 when they've forced two or more turnovers. They're 4-4 when they've had two or more turnovers themselves in a game.
Against a team as explosive as this, when they give an opening, you've got to take advantage.
In two career meetings against Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, he's thrown 58 passes without an interception. He's fumbled twice yet hasn't lost one. By no coincidence, he's 2-0 against the Steelers.
The Steelers know they have to take advantage of those opportunities -- however few they might be -- when Mahomes and the Chiefs put the ball in harm's way.
They have to do that and take care of the football themselves.
"We got to be better this time than we were the last time we saw them, starting first and foremost with taking care of the ball," Mike Tomlin said. "You can't turn the ball over in this environment and expect to be competitive. We put them on short fields I think three times, it produced 17 points. And it can't happen. Particularly if you're not getting turnovers and we didn’t."
Perhaps a healthy T.J. Watt can help that.
Watt was banged up in the first meeting and only played 55 percent of the Steelers' snaps. He'll be working against the Chiefs' third right tackle of the season, Andrew Wylie. Wylie started last year's Super Bowl for the Chiefs and was one of the players that convinced Kansas City it needed to bring in five new offensive line starters this season.
Watt, who forced five fumbles this season, led the NFL with 22.5 sacks. He also forced three throws that led to interceptions.
The Steelers are hopeful a healthy Watt can lead to turnovers -- and general mayhem.
"Hopefully a lot. We'll see," Butler said of whether a healthy Watt will make a difference.
"We didn't have to deal with (tight end Travis Kelce) last time this time, we'll have to deal with him. It's going to be what it should be. NFL playoffs, this is what it should be. They should be hard to win. And it should be hard to leave your home and go somewhere else and win. It’s going to be tough for us., If we win the thing, then hey, we'll see what happens after that."
