COLUMBUS, Ohio -- It didn't take long for Jason Zucker to go from a player who appeared capable of augmenting the Penguins' star-studded top-six, to a player who has underachieved his $5.5 million cap hit, let alone the assets required to attain him.
Even after Monday's two-goal performance in Las Vegas in his return from injury, Zucker has lit the lamp a total of six times through 31 games, a figure he reached in only 15 games while flanking Sidney Crosby during the 2019-20 season.
The following season, the Penguins got absolutely boat-raced when he was on the ice. During his 525 minutes of ice-time at five-on-five, the Penguins were outscored, 26-19, and controlled a paltry 44.8% of the expected goals, per Evolving Hockey. Individually, Zucker didn't fare any better, as he scored at a 19-goal pace and attempted just shy of 12 shots per hour during all-situations, the second-lowest rate of his career.
He did miss a chunk of games due to a leg injury, but the Penguins couldn't afford another season of their second-line winger getting outchanced and outscored to such a degree, especially if it's next to Evgeni Malkin.
Coming into this season, Zucker said he needed to shoot the puck more, and he's done just that as he's currently attempting a career-high 15.9 shots per hour. He hasn't just been spamming low-danger attempts, either, as he's generating 1.14 expected goals per hour, putting him fifth among the team's regulars.
Zucker's shot attempt locations, via Evolving Hockey (attempts are scaled to their expected goal value -- the bigger, the higher likelihood of becoming a goal):
Evolving-Hockey.com
The chances have been there, making his output all the more frustrating, but it's incredibly unlikely he will continue to shoot 6.8% the rest of the season after scoring at a 12.3% clip over his career. More on that in a moment.
Unlike last season, the Penguins have been strong with Zucker at the ice at five-on-five, outscoring the opposition, 18-15, on their way to controlling a very solid 58.2% of the expected goals.
As a unit, the Penguins have created offense at an above-average rate with Zucker out there, but more impressive is how downright staunch they've been defensively with him on the ice at five-on-five, illustrated by Hockey Viz:
HockeyViz.com
Penguins opponents have been almost entirely limited to shots from the high-slot and left-point, relative to league-average, with Zucker on the ice. They're not getting anywhere near the heart of the slot or net-front area, which is where the Penguins hemorrhaged attempts with Zucker on the ice a season ago.
Even though they haven't shown a ton of chemistry in their time together, that figures to bode well alongside Malkin and Kasperi Kapanen, who aren't exactly going to be making any runs toward a Selke Trophy.
Mike Sullivan made it clear that he believes Zucker's tenacity, forechecking ability, and willingness to get to the front of the net are all qualities that complement his linemates, on top of his defensive play.
He won't be the offensive focal point on that line, but if he starts to fill the net at a rate that's at least in line with the chances he's been creating, it would give the Penguins even more stability up front.
It would alleviate the need -- if there even is one -- to look into acquiring some middle-six scoring depth.
I'm all for the Penguins burning any non-NHL roster assets to remain competitive with Crosby, Malkin, and Kris Letang, but the Penguins don't need to force an issue that doesn't exist:
This season, Zucker has scored 3.14 goals below expected based on the chances he's created.
Prior to this season, Zucker only had two campaigns -- 2015-16 and 2018-19 -- in which he failed to score on par with expectations or higher.
We're not talking about a player that can't shoot the puck. He's scored 24 goals above expected over the course of his career:
That's certainly an above-average release.
Also on display there is how adept he is at receiving the puck in position to shoot. Rather than posturing himself to receive the puck out front, he smartly angled his body toward the goal and caught the puck in his hip-pocket, allowing for an instant shot.
I'm inclined to believe the general manager who didn't overreact to his goaltender's poor six-game postseason sample isn't going to overreact to a 31-game sample where the puck just won't go for someone who has illustrated the ability to be a plus-finisher over their career.
In the event that Zucker simply can't find the twine consistently as the season chugs along, he could slide down a line without a problem.
The blow of such a pricey winger toward the bottom of the lineup would be offset by the value being squeezed out of Evan Rodrigues and Danton Heinen, who are both in line for raises this offseason.
Regardless, the Penguins have plenty of depth at forward. Zucker finding his scoring-touch, and there's plenty of reasons to believe he will, could be far more impactful than any deadline acquisition to fill his spot.
