It's possible to guess precisely where the ball will settle when a roulette wheel is spun.
It also is possible to predict how the NHL's Department of Player Safety will rule on a particular case.
It's just a lot more difficult.
So good luck trying to figure out what punishment Evgeni Malkin will receive for cross-checking Predators defenseman Mark Borowiecki in the face Sunday, knocking him out of the Penguins' 3-2 overtime victory and, apparently, making several of Borowiecki's teeth unrestricted free agents.
Now, Borowiecki plays a physical game, is a former member of DOPS's frequent-offender club and can be the kind of guy who makes opponents want to drive the shaft of their sticks into his mouth. That doesn't mean they should. Or that the league should allow such an incident to pass without severe punishment. Even if the guilty party is a future Hall of Famer and one of the top performers of his generation.
Heck, perhaps the punishment should be harsh because the offender is prominent and accomplished.
What better way to deter others from committing such acts than by coming down hard on a high-profile guy like Malkin?
His attack on Borowiecki -- no matter what might have happened off-camera to provoke it -- was selfish and stupid, the kind of discipline breakdown that's particularly inexcusable at this time of year.
But at least the incident gives the Dept. of Player Safety a chance to prove it that it shouldn't be mistaken for a parody account.
2. The Penguins haven't won the Stanley Cup in five years.
They haven't won a playoff series since 2018.
They aren't going to win the Metropolitan Division, and don't have anyone favored to win a major league award this spring.
And while their place in the playoffs is all but official -- a victory against the Islanders Tuesday at UBS Arena would clinch a berth for the 16th consecutive season, extending the NHL's longest active streak -- you won't find them on many short lists of clubs predicted to seriously challenge for a championship.
Expectations, at least outside of Western Pennsylvania, for this team will be low. It will be interesting to see what impact, if any, having an opportunity to operate somewhat under-the-radar for the first time in well over a decade has on their playoff performance.
3. Tampa Bay pulled out of a 2-0-2 skid with its 5-0 victory over the Sabres Sunday, but lately, the Lightning has looked very much like a team that has reached the Stanley Cup final in each of the past two seasons.
While its lineup is as imposing at it was in either of Tampa Bay's championship runs, the physical and mental toll of playing four series two years in a row -- to say nothing of having a shorter offseason during which to rest, less time to train, etc. -- seems obvious.
The Penguins learned all about that in 2010, after making back-to-back trips to the final, and again in 2018.
The Lightning's most daunting task this spring might not be overcoming the quality opponents it will face, but holding off the effects of what it has been through in the past.
4. Based on their two-game regular-season series -- admittedly, about as small a sample size as one could get -- one of the worst playoff matchups for the Penguins might be Calgary, which held them to one goal and has a heavy, balanced lineup. The Penguins probably would be thrilled to take their chances in a best-of-seven with the Flames, though, since the teams could only meet in a Cup final.
5. Although the onus certainly will be on Tristan Jarry to atone for his dismal showing in the 2021 playoffs, the pressure on Panthers goalie Sergei Bobrovsky figures to be even more intense.
Florida is a popular choice to contend for the Cup, but there's little in Bobrovsky's playoff history to indicate that he's capable of leading the Panthers to a title.
His career record in the postseason is 13-23, with a 3.24 goals-against average and .899 save percentage. He has had one winning record -- 6-4, with Columbus three years ago -- in eight playoff runs.
Bobrovsky is completing the third year of a seven-year, $70 million deal he signed in 2019.
The Panthers believed they were getting a goalie who could help them challenge for a championship. They now have the skaters to do that; it's time for the goalie in whom they've invested so much to show that he'll be more of a help than a hindrance.
6. This might not be the most improbable statistic of 2021-22, but it will do until another comes along: Bryan Rust is having an outstanding season, with numerous contributions that include 24 goals in 52 games.
That's not the unlikely part. Rather, it's that only one of the goals scored by Rust, who has earned a reputation for producing in clutch situations, has been a game-winner. That puts him behind the likes of Brock McGinn and Evan Rodrigues, who have two each, and in a dead heat with Mark Friedman and Dominik Simon.
Sidney Crosby, by the way, leads the Penguins with eight game-winners among his 28 goals. It's also noteworthy that Mike Matheson has five on 11 goals.
7. Seattle has had a disappointing first season in the NHL -- the Kraken hoped to make a serious run at a playoff spot, but sits 30th in the overall standings -- but the payoff for what appeared to be a fairly strong roster assembled in the expansion draft might still be coming.
GM Ron Francis, a key member of the Penguins' first two Cup-winners, turned a number of the players selected then into assets for the next two drafts.
Seattle owns 12 choices -- four of them in the second round -- in this summer's draft and 13 in 2023. Francis probably won't use all of those, but can package them to secure higher picks or acquire players to plug holes in his lineup.
8. Bag skates, which are workouts that feature exhaustive skating and often have punitive overtones, are relatively rare in today's game, but Brian Burke recalls that his coach at Providence College -- a gentleman who would go on to have a bit of success as a GM in the NHL -- would employ them when he deemed it necessary to make a point.
"Lou Lamiorello called it 'Any Color' " Burke said. "If we had a bad game, the trainer would write on the board, 'Any Color.' It didn't matter what color (practice jersey a player wore). We weren't touching pucks, so any color sweater would do. You're not seeing a puck."
9. Former Penguins winger/folk hero Phil Kessel became the NHL's reigning ironman when Flyers defenseman Keith Yandle was a healthy scratch March 29.
Kessel has appeared in 972 consecutive games, a remarkable run for any player, at any position.
There is, however, a stat that at least partially explains Kessel's durability: He has been credited with 192 hits in 1,194 career games, including six -- yes, a half-dozen -- in 72 games this season.
Kessel is a creative playmaker and accomplished goal-scorer, but no one is going to mistake him for, say, his former coach, Rick Tocchet.
10. Given the choice, the Penguins surely would prefer to have the home-ice advantage in any playoff series. So would just about every other club.
Precedent, though, suggests that starting a series at home and having a Game 7, if needed, there isn't nearly as much of an edge as some might suspect.
One need go back no farther than the 2021 playoffs to recognize that, because lower-seeded teams won 10 of the 15 series contested then.
That includes the Penguins' six-game, opening-round loss to the Islanders.