When doing mock drafts, you often have to throw different scenarios into the equation. What happens if this player is gone? What happens if that one goes? What if there's a run at a position?
Back in the early part of the draft process, my initial mock draft this year after the Senior Bowl had the Steelers taking quarterback Malik Willis in the first round.
I've done several mock drafts since then, with the Steelers taking a different player in the first round each time.
But now, as we sit here on the eve of the 2022 NFL Draft, we've gone full circle. We're now back to the Steelers taking Willis with the 20th pick in the draft -- if he's available.
In this scenario, he was. And the Steelers jump at the opportunity to add a high-upside quarterback who could give them a chance to compete in the AFC North against the likes of Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow and now Deshaun Watson.
The Steelers need to go big or go home at quarterback.
Make no mistake, Willis will take time to develop. He's not a finished product by any stretch. But he's one of the most toolsy players in this year's draft.
And with Mitch Trubisky on board at a bargain price, the Steelers can afford to take their time with Willis. They don't need him to start this season. Heck, he doesn't even need to be the starter in 2023 -- though that would certainly be the goal.
He's the kind of quarterback for which the team could have certain packages designed to both get his feet wet at the NFL level while also helping the team win games in 2022.
Could he bust? Sure.
But so could every other player in this draft. That's why it's not considered a particularly strong draft in terms of star potential. It's got depth, but little in the way of true home runs.
Willis is one of the few players available who could be one.
Here's my final look at how this draft could go.
First Round
Pick 1, Jaguars, Travon Walker, Edge, Georgia: The Jaguars go for the high-upside pick in Walker.
Pick 2, Lions, Aidan Hutchinson, Edge, Michigan: The Lions keep Hutchinson in state.
Pick 3, Texans, Evan Neal, OT, Alabama: The Texans could use everything and it wouldn't be surprising if this pick is Ahmad Gardner. But Neal has great value, as well.
Pick 4, Jets, Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati: Gardner is the best prospect in this draft in my book.
Pick 5, Giants, Ikem Ekwonu, OT, North Carolina State: The Giants would love this scenario.
Pick 6, Seahawks (projected trade with Panthers), Derek Stingley, CB, LSU: Yes, a trade up for a cornerback. The Panthers don't mind moving back with the top two tackles off the board. And Pete Carroll values corners.
Pick 7, Giants, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Edge, Oregon: The Giants bolster both sides of their lines.
Pick 8, Falcons, Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State: The Falcons' receiving corps is pitiful. Wilson would help -- a lot.
Pick 9, Panthers, Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State: The Panthers could have taken Cross with the 6th pick. They move back and still get their guy.
Pick 10, Jets, Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame: All this talk of Hamilton falling because of his 40 time doesn't match his tape. He's very solid.
Pick 11, Commanders, Drake London, WR, USC: The Commanders need someone to take pressure off Terry McLaurin.
Pick 12, Vikings, Jermaine Johnson, Edge, Florida State: The Vikings would prefer a corner, but a premium edge works, too.
Pick 13, Texans, Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington: Lovie Smith is an old defensive backs coach. He wants to rebuild the secondary.
Pick 14, Ravens, Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia: Sorry Steelers fans. Not only won't the Steelers get Davis, but they'll have to play against him twice a year.
Pick 15, Eagles, Chris Olave, WR, Eagles: The Eagles have taken several swings at wide receivers recently, most of them misses.
Pick 16, Titans (projected trade with Saints), Kenny Pickett, QB, Pitt: The Titans are rumored to be in the QB market. And if they are, Pickett would make sense. The Saints would get back some of the draft capital they traded away to get two first-round picks this year.
Pick 17, Chargers, Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama: The rich get richer at WR.
Pick 18, Eagles, Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah: The Eagles haven't taken a linebacker in the first round in decades. It's time to break the string.
Pick 19, Saints, Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa: The Saints need tackle help.
Pick 20, Steelers, Malik Willis, QB, Liberty: Really, Willis isn't that different as a prospect from Trey Lance a year ago. And Lance went third overall in the draft.
Pick 21, Patriots, Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas: Will Bill Belichick finally get a WR pick right?
Pick 22, Packers, George Karlaftis, Edge, Purdue: The Packers need to keep their defense solid.
Pick 23, Cardinals, Andrew Booth, CB, Clemson: Another solid addition for the Cardinals' secondary.
Pick 24, Cowboys, Zion Johnson, OL, Boston College: Whether the Cowboys play him at center or guard, Johnson is a plug-and-play player.
Pick 25, Bills, Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia: The Bills keep acquiring players for their defensive front. Wyatt doesn't fit in the Steelers' scheme, but he's exactly what the Bills like.
Pick 26, Saints, Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State: The Saints get the OT and WR they need to compete for a playoff spot in the NFC.
Pick 27, Titans, Kenyon Green, G, Texas A&M: The Bucs are in win-now mode and need a guard.
Pick 28, Packers, Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota: The Packers have to add a target for Aaron Rodgers, right?
Pick 29, Chiefs, Daxton Hill, S, Michigan: The Chiefs get a player who can play safety and nickel corner, much like the Honey Badger.
Pick 30, Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida: Another secondary player? You saw how easily the Bills and Bengals carved up KC's secondary last year, right?
Pick 31, Bengals, Roger McCreary, CB, Auburn: McCreary sneaks into the first round with the run on cornerbacks. It's a definite need for the Bengals.
Pick 32, Lions, Lewis Cine, S, Georgia: Cine is a high-quality strong safety and leader. The Lions could use one.
Other Steelers Picks
Round 2, pick 52, Quay Walker, LB, Georgia: I'd consider a trade up in the second round to get a wide receiver, with George Pickens of Georgia or Skyy Moore of Western Michigan being the targets. But Pickens went at 39 to the Bears and Moore went at 50 to the Chiefs in this mock. Surprisingly, Walker is still available. The Steelers have until May 3 to pick up the fifth-year option on Devin Bush, and this is why they have not announced any decision regarding that yet. Walker is an inside linebacker. But much like Lawrence Timmons was used when the Steelers selected him in 2007, Walker also can line up outside and play some snaps there. The value is just too good to pass up, even though there's a real need at wide receiver.
Round 3, Pick 84, Khalil Shakir, WR, Boise State: When I didn't get a receiver in the second round, it meant I had to get one in Round 3. And I'd be more than happy with Shakir there. He's got great body control, speed and has decent size at nearly 6-foot. Shakir can play inside or outside, though he mostly played in the slot for Boise State. He's a polished route runner, which is what the Steelers prefer at the position. Shakir also can handle punt and kick return duties, and you can never have enough of those players. He's really a good value in Round 3.
Round 4, Pick 138, Damarri Mathis, CB, Pitt: The Steelers didn't get the Pitt player so many fans wanted them to get, but they get one with perhaps a little more upside. Mathis is fast and aggressive. He's also a strong tackler, which the Steelers value at the position. Cam Sutton is signed through this year, while Ahkello Witherspoon and Levi Wallace are signed through 2023. The Steelers could definitely use a cornerback in this draft, and getting a talent such as Mathis at the end of the fourth round is a nice get as a developmental player.
Round 6, Pick 208, Esezi Otomewo, DE, Minnesota: At 6-foot-5, 282 pounds, Otomewo has the size the Steelers look for in their defensive ends. He played that spot at Minnesota in their 4-3 base defense, adding 70 pounds since high school. He needs to continue to develop, but like Isaiahh Loudermilk a year ago, you take guys with this body type because there just aren't many of them on the planet. Then, you coach them up and try to turn them into players. The Steelers have had success with that in the past. Otomewo might not play a down as a rookie, and that's fine. This is a pick for 2023.
Round 7, Pick 225, Vederian Lowe, OT, Illinois: A four-year starter at left tackle for Illinois, Lowe has great size at 6-foot-5, 314 pounds. He also has over 35-inch arms. Lowe isn't a plus athlete, but he can most certainly be a long-term swing tackle with starter potential. And you never turn your nose up to a developmental offensive tackle with the kind of experience Lowe possesses.
Round 7, Pick 241, Connor Heyward, FB, Michigan State: Put whatever designation you want beside Heyward's name. It could be fullback. It could be tight end. It could be running back. He's just a football player. Heyward will be an immediate impact player on special teams and catches the ball as well as you'd expect for a player who has played running back, wide receiver and tight end in his college career. Blocking will be something he needs to refine, but that will develop.
