North Shore Tavern Mound Visit: A closer look at Reynolds' April taken at PNC Park (Weekly Features)

JUSTIN K. ALLER / GETTY

Bryan Reynolds.

“If you have any ideas, let me know.”

That was Bryan Reynolds’ response when I asked Thursday if he had an explanation for his early season swoon. It was in jest, but there’s a kernel of truth in every joke. If Reynolds or the Pirates’ coaching staff knew exactly what was causing those extra strikeouts, then we wouldn’t be talking about them.

He’s a talented hitter and player, but April was also one of the worst months of his big-league career. His .598 OPS in April was the second-lowest of any month of his career, with the only one worse being a seven-game July in 2020, which barely counts.

Taking it a step further, going by weighted runs created plus (wRC+), which takes the rest of the league’s offensive output into account, and Reynolds’ final 10 games of April are right there with his low points in 2020:

photoCaption-photoCredit

Keep in mind there were also stretches in 2019 and 2021 where Reynolds slumped like this too. Just about every hitter goes through something like this over the course of 162. It just sticks out a lot more when it’s at the start of the season.

Internally, Reynolds and the coaching staff have been working on him seeing the ball better, whether that’s coming out of the hand, on its flight towards home or at the plate. “See ball, hit ball” is the simplest way to put it. He just had a fine series against the Padres, reaching base multiple times in each game during the weekend series with some harder contact to go with it. It sure sounds like he’s seeing the ball better.

If you want some more good news, talking to a league analyst this week, Reynolds’ contact point is consistent with where it’s been in years past, so we can throw out anything drastic like decreased bat speed or a major change in approach being the root of the problem. Both are good signs that Reynolds is right on the edge of breaking out of this funk.

April is behind us, and Reynolds could very well be on the cusp of returning to form. Even if that’s the case, it’s worth diving deeper into his first month of the season. That way we can see what the difference is between that first month and his All-Star form.

Some stats are easy to pick up. His chase percentage jumped up a couple ticks, from 24.7% last season to 28.5% in 2022, though that has tracked down lately because of his recent walks. Still, he expanded the zone, and unsurprisingly, his whiff rate went up, going from 23.9% to 32.4%. That whiff rate is the highest he’s ever had in a calendar month in the majors, which is why he struck out in one-fourth of his plate appearances. 

Those fluctuations can partially be attributed to pitchers attacking Reynolds differently. Last year, Reynolds crushed the four-seamer, hitting .342 against it with 12 home runs and a .671 slugging percentage. The one pitch that gave him trouble was the curve, hitting just .172 with a .276 SLG. So far this year, he’s getting a lot more breaking stuff at the cost of fewer fastballs:

photoCaption-photoCredit

Reynolds is seeing breaking stuff as often as he’s seeing fastballs. Usually as a switch-hitter, you get to face less breaking stuff because you always have the hand advantage, meaning pitchers with full repertoires tend to lean on the changeup more. That isn’t happening so far this season, and when you’re seeing more junk than heat, it can contribute to timing issues.

Again, Reynolds seems to be heading down the right path, but I also want to bring up his mechanics. He’s a bit of a tinkerer, so the swing dpes change over the course of a season, but as I wrote in a Mound Visit last year, his body position plays such a large role for him. 

Comparing video from him in 2021 to this season, there are some noteworthy changes. Here he is mid-groove in 2021 and during this last series against the Brewers, slowed down to 0.25 speed:

Look at the setup for Reynolds as the ball is leaving the pitcher’s hand. The bat is being held at different angles, and the back and front side leg are also at a different angle, more crouched. Not surprisingly, his head placement looks a little closer to that front shoulder, and the hands appear to be further back.

We’re talking about some very small details, but if you overlap those two stances…

photoCaption-photoCredit

You can see how he hasn’t quite used the same set up so far this year. This is after some tinkering because of a slump, so different doesn’t necessarily mean worse. It means it’s different. He’s still getting the barrel out in front of the plate early enough for good contact. That contact is just not as frequent.

If you want an explanation for Reynolds’ slow start, he’s being attacked differently, he might be pressing a bit (which explains the chases and whiffs) and the swing may be a bit out of sync because of tweaks he’s making. All of that is fixable, and it may already have been fixed. If we’re still scratching our head with Reynolds at this time in June, then those three points will probably need to be examined further.

Until then, there’s no reason to hit the panic button.

Loading...
Loading...