Even if the Penguins are banking on Jason Zucker to stay healthy and play in the top-six next season, they'll need to sign at least one more winger who can play toward the top of the lineup in addition to re-signing Evgeni Malkin or snagging a second-line center in free agency.
One option is to re-sign pending unrestricted free agent Rickard Rakell.
After making $3.8 million a season for the past six years, Rakell, who turned 29 in May, is in line for a raise on his next deal. Evolving Hockey's contract projections have him cashing out for over $5 million per season on a three- or four-year contract, though Rakell and his new agent, Claude Lemieux, are likely looking for a bit more money and term.
The two-time 30-goal-scorer potted 4 goals and had 13 points in 19 regular-season games with the Penguins after being acquired for Zach Aston-Reese, Dominik Simon, goalie prospect Calle Clang and a 2022 second-round pick at the NHL's trade deadline in March.
"It was a great experience for me," Rakell said of his brief time with the Penguins. "I’ve learned a lot from a lot of great players, coaches here. I feel like this team has a lot of potential and this is definitely a place I would like to come back to, and where I think that I can take my game to the next level as well."
It won't be easy for Ron Hextall to sign a top-pairing defenseman and second-line center and still give Rakell a contract he'd be comfortable with unless he clears a separate contract from the roster.
With that in mind, let's weigh the benefits and risks of the Penguins being the next team to ink Rakell to a deal.
• Don't be surprised if Rakell's best hockey is behind him. It's inherently risky to sign any player pushing 30 to a relatively substantial contract. It's even more risky when you pay for their most recent 19-game sample and not the much larger body of work from the prior three seasons.
Since pacing at 38 and 36 goals per 82 games from 2016-18, Rakell saw his 82-game goal-scoring pace dwindle to 21, 18 and 14 in consecutive seasons before rebounding to 23 in 2021-22. Rakell believes his game could flourish with the Penguins, but expecting him to return to being a 30-goal guy -- especially if he receives limited power play time -- would be setting yourself up for disappointment.
The argument could be made that Rakell was negatively affected by a weaker Ducks roster, which ultimately hurt his overall impact. Sometimes that factor is a bit overblown. In this case, I think it's a combination of weak teammates and playing in a system that didn't exactly lend itself to the skillful style Rakell likes to play.
Hextall hinted at this when Rakell was initially acquired.
"We feel like he's going to fit in real good here. Again, it's hard to score in this league, so when you add a player of Rickard's resume, put him with our players, we feel like we're a better team."
That doesn't absolve him completely from such a drop-off, but stylistic fits and chemistry are very real things. Some players are influenced by it more than others. Rakell might be one of them.
Still, there wasn't a chance he would keep converting on roughly 16% of his shots like he did during his best seasons. A natural regression was in order to begin with. Throw in a less than ideal environment and some poor luck and the regression becomes drastic.
• Rakell is unique to the Penguins in the sense that he provides a rare combination of puck skills, finishing ability and effective physicality.
At 6'1" and 195 pounds Rakell is hardly a towering presence, but it's undeniable he plays like a power forward in several aspects of the game. There isn't another forward on the Penguins' roster that could be categorized as such.
Despite playing the ninth-most minutes on the team from the time of the trade, Rakell led the Penguins with 38 hits through the end of the season. He wasn't out there throwing bone-crunching hits or even going out of his way to hit, but he routinely finished his checks and played the body if it made sense to do so in regard to maintaining or taking possession of the puck.
The physical component of his game is something I underrated in my initial video analysis on him. It could have been due to the overall heavier brand of hockey played in the Pacific Division causing Rakell to blend in physically, or my biased eye simply wasn't looking for it.
Regardless, Rakell has some of that West Coast hockey in him and the Penguins have none of it anywhere else.
• If Rakell is brought back, Mike Sullivan has to be willing to give him an extended look flanking Sidney Crosby.
Yes, the line of Crosby, Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust terrorized the Rangers in the playoffs. They were phenomenal. While that's been the case for large stretches over the past several seasons, there were also stretches where the line could clearly benefit from a shakeup that rarely came unless injuries dictated it. Sullivan's undying commitment to Rust on that line reached questionable levels on a couple of occasions.
It's only a 100-minute sample that is sure to stabilize and come back to earth, but Rakell and Crosby put up some downright ridiculous numbers together at even-strength. With those two on the ice, the Penguins outscored opponents 12-1 with a 125-87 advantage in shot attempts. 12 goals. Just over an hour and a half together. That's putting video game difficulty on rookie.
Those two were riding an on-ice shooting percentage bender (15.2%), however, the sheer volume of quality chances they created together suggests they will continue to fill the net at a torrid pace once the shooting percentage decreases:
HockeyViz
Again, we're talking about a very small sample here, but it's impossible to ignore the production. Throw the stats and charts out the window and your eyes would tell you the same thing.
Rakell's flashy puck skills along with being a threat to wire the puck to the back of the net opened up a ton of ice and high-danger passing opportunities for the Penguins' attack. His physical impact contributed to their success as well.
This is a duo -- or trio if you consider Crosby and Guentzel inseperable -- that must be re-visited if Rakell returns to the Penguins.
Rust and Malkin have been very strong in their time together. Rakell and Malkin were a defensive disaster that struggled to generate in their limited stint together. Assuming Malkin re-signs, it makes all the sense in the world to squeeze the most out of the top-six instead of relying on one dominant line in hopes of the other line eventually figuring it out.
• 11 of Rakell's 13 points with the Penguins came at five-on-five. Crosby and Guentzel were the only Penguins with more five-on-five points after Rakell was brought in. That kind of production isn't easy to get your hands on.
Frankly, Rakell's talent isn't easy to get your hands on.
Any general manager in the NHL would be glad to employ someone that can laser the puck like this:
It all boils down to how much he will cost, but for a team that had its worst finishing season in recent memory, the Penguins should make a strong push to re-sign Rakell. His unique skill set -- one the Penguins would greatly benefit from -- won't be found anywhere else in free agency.
• Although it's less pertinent, it would be nice to see the Penguins actually hang onto an acquisition that cost them considerable assets. We've seen countless draft picks, prospects and low-end value roster pieces burned for players that either didn't pan out or were eventually traded again for much less than what the Penguins paid to bring them in.
Rakell isn't a must-have player, but he inarguably makes the Penguins a better team next season versus any player they'd have a realistic shot at signing to fill the role.
