For as well as the Penguins' 2021-22 regular-season went, it's hard not to feel as if it could've gone even better had a number of their skaters lived up to their prior standards or potential.
Luck and simple variance can play massive roles in outcomes in small samples, but these effects are often seen on a season-long scale and, in some instances, even longer.
There are two Penguins skaters in particular who might see a bounce back in performance next season. Their less than stellar performances this past season can't be solely chalked up to luck and variance, but factoring in those items along with a deeper look under the hood suggests these players might not be quite as disappointing in the future.
Who are they?
Jeff Carter
Age: 37
2021-22 stats: 76 games, 19 goals, 26 assists, 44.1% on-ice goals for (5v5), 49.4% on-ice expected goals for (5v5)
In the absence of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin to start last season, Carter was thrust to the Penguins' first line. Until Crosby returned to the lineup at the end of October, Carter certainly wasn't lighting the world on fire, but he played about as well as one could hope considering what was asked of him. In addition to centering the top line, he had his fair share of work on both special teams units.
Even though he wasn't scoring anywhere near the rampant pace he was at in limited time with the Penguins the previous season, Carter's performance, for the most part, was fine as the season neared its halfway point. He wasn't really driving play one way or the other, but his production was acceptable for his ice time and deployment, which consisted of pretty heavy defensive zone usage.
Then, Carter inked an extremely premature (on management's end) two-year contract extension at a cap hit of $3.125 million, an increase from what he was counting against the Penguins at the time.
Seemingly days after the extension was signed, Carter fell off a cliff.
He was noticeably sluggish and a liability defensively while enduring several lengthy goal droughts. As the season wore on, the Penguins were spending a considerable chunk of his ice time chasing the puck around in their own end. No matter which wingers flanked him, he seemed to sink his line.
The playoffs rolled around and the Penguins were, somehow, heavily outshot (125-89) and outscored (9-3) against a horrendous five-on-five team in the Rangers when Carter was on the ice at full strength. All situations, Carter scored four goals to go along with an assist, but one of his goals was an empty-netter and another barely grazed his pants at the front of the net. They all count the same, but that's not a recipe for repeatability.
Recently, I went back and watched some film of Carter from early in the season. I was legitimately shocked at how much better his skating appeared than it did at the conclusion of the season. This only further solidified my belief that he suffered from overuse and fatigue down the stretch.
There were still some signs that a drop-off was coming -- mainly a hesitation to stop and start, poor routes and avoiding body contact, but these were issues that only got worse as he became more fatigued.
At his end-of-season media availability, he admitted it was a bit of a tough season because he hadn't played that much hockey in years. The last time he played more than 60 games in a season was 2018-19.
Part of it was out of necessity, but the Penguins failed to properly manage his workload. A fresh set of wheels next season and more attentive load management from the coaching staff should put him on track to be more impactful than he showed in the final months of 2021-22.
Mike Sullivan could take it a step further and move Carter to the wing where he'd be far better off at this stage of his career. The value he brings to the table on faceoffs could still be leveraged. Let him take the draws before shifting back to wing.
He'll be 38 next January, so I'm not going to sit here and tell you he will be good next season, but there is a clear path to getting more out of him.
Kasperi Kapanen
Age: 25
2021-22 stats: 79 games, 11 goals, 21 assists, 55.2% on-ice goals for (5v5), 53.4% on-ice expected goals for (5v5)
Kapanen had quite a bizarre season.
Sullivan spent the preseason hyping him up as a player who could be a real force. At the very least, Sullivan hyped him up as someone who figured to produce quite a bit more than merely matching his previous season's goal and point totals in double the games.
That wasn't the case.
In his first season with the Penguins, Kapanen displayed an uncanny ability to be opportunistic. It seemed as if every dangerous rush opportunity he had ended up in the back of the net. Aside from that, Kapanen's game was a disaster. His effort and impact defensively was abysmal. He didn't make his teammates better through puck support or winning battles. He was a one-trick rush pony.
Jump to this past season and those issues became exponentially more apparent when the opportunities and goals vanished for Kapanen. Each game that came and went without another goal further exposed his defensive shortcomings and off-puck play. Those shortcomings got to his head and he began to press. Once he began to press, he bafflingly lost the ability to corral or keep the puck on his stick with any sort of consistency. Whenever he found daylight, he managed to lose the puck or skate right by it.
The offense never really came around. He went enormous stretches of games without scoring and, really, it could have been worse had a couple of pucks not ricocheted off him and into the net. He did show some offensive prowess during the postseason including a couple of really nice looks, but ultimately failed to score.
What's interesting is that a little over halfway through the regular season, Kapanen began to shore up many of his defensive issues while playing a smarter game away from the puck. Now, he wasn't being confused for Mark Stone out there, but he finally figured out how to use his quick feet and speed to hound and trap defenders with the puck near the Penguins' blue line. He went from a replacement level defender to roughly league-average.
The jump in defensive impact isn't really worth much by itself -- he's simply not the kind of player you keep around if not for offense. However, it does inspire a little bit of hope he can be a much more complete player if he recaptures the offensive component.
As frustrating as he was, there's reason to believe he might be able to.
The speed and skating is obviously there, but let's not forget Kapanen possesses a pretty decent shot. Aside from this past season, Kapanen's goal total has exceeded his expected goal total every full season of his career. He has demonstrated the ability to be a plus finisher, one bad season likely doesn't change that for good.
He's never going to be frequently dripping in chances and I'm not here to tell you that he will magically turn it around next season, just that I have a hard time believing he will be that bad again. It's possible to note his poor performance while noting he also likely suffered from a bit of misfortune in the luck department.
Kapanen is a restricted free agent and the Penguins will surely submit a qualifying offer to retain his rights simply because of how cheap his qualifying offer will be. He might not sign it, but he has mentioned on multiple occasions how much he loves playing for the Penguins. That should help keep his cap hit relatively low. If the offense comes back around, it would be a nice value deal for Ron Hextall.
