Drive to the Net: Impossible to miss parallels between Plante, Guentzel taken at PPG Paints Arena (Drive to the Net)

CHICAGO STEEL

Zam Plante.

When Zam Plante, the Penguins' fifth-round draft choice on Friday, told our Taylor Haase that he likes to model his game after Jake Guentzel, it was anything but fan service.

Plante's game has several striking similarities to Guentzel which we'll touch on in a moment, but their similarities aren't limited to the ice.

Both of them grew up as rink rats in Minnesota and played high school hockey there.

Both of them are children to hockey coaches.

Both of them have a particular innocence within their personalities (which was never more apparent than when Guentzel facetimed Plante after he was drafted).

But franchises aren't drafting for feel-good stories. Could Plante eventually make it to the NHL and be a positive contributor? Not even 18 years old yet, he's still a bit raw, but his outlook is about as bright as any team could hope for out of the No. 150 pick in the draft.

Statistical models are far from being comprehensive prospect evaluation tools. That said, it's rather noteworthy Plante's 60% chance of becoming a full-time NHLer (200+ games played) instantly took the top spot among all prospects throughout the Penguins' organization, per Hockey Prospecting. Yes, that includes P.O Joseph, Sam Poulin, Valtteri Puustinen and even first-round draft pick Owen Pickering, although that could be due to the model underrating players who contribute in ways aside from getting on the scoresheet.

A 60% chance to establish an NHL career is insane value for a pick so late in the draft. What's more insane is that Plante's chance of becoming a full-time NHLer and chance of becoming a star producer (0.7 career points per game) at the time he was drafted is nearly identical to Guentzel's chances when he was drafted with the No. 77 pick in 2013:

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Hockey Prospecting

Focus on the D0 sections up there, that represents draft year. D1 represents draft year plus one and so on. Guentzel's draft day chance of becoming a full-timer sat at 55% while his chance of becoming a star producer was 18%. Plante's star chance sits at 19%. All of these parallels are fascinating and we haven't even made it to the video.

Plante is a boxscore machine. In 42 games during his high school career he registered a ridiculous 125 points. In 31 USHL games he totaled 21 points playing a third line role.

Here's a clip (all of which will be from his play with the Chicago Steel of the USHL) that I believe encapsulates many of his redeeming qualities -- most prominent being his hockey mind, just like Guentzel:

Where does the praise even begin with that sequence? The shoulder check before arriving to the loose puck? The nifty between-the-legs pass to exit the zone? The identification of open ice for the taking and doing so?

None of Plante's shooting, passing or skating skills are what I would consider high-end, but they are all comfortably above-average relative to his peers. I hesitate to throw his skating into that group because it needs to be refined, however I find that he makes up for it with the pace he plays at and the routes he takes.

Aside from elite finishing, Guentzel's different skill sets are good but not cream of the crop by any means. He puts himself over the top by thinking the game on a different level than most. That will be Plante's path to becoming an NHLer:

Where have we seen a snappy rush one-timer like that before?

I'm not saying Plante's ability to finish is comparable to Guentzel's -- it isn't -- but, man, his fundamental shot mechanics aren't much different. It really stands out how both can keep their toe caps pointed downhill while rotating their upper-body toward the middle of the ice to receive a pass, and then finish it off by violently whipping the puck on target.

In Plante's goal above, you can tell he knew what would happen before it actually did. Instinctively, he overlapped toward the middle of the ice with his teammate carrying the puck from the middle to the outside. Naturally, this drew the eyes of the defense away from Plante, who managed to find a pocket of open ice among a sea of sticks and bodies.

Plante is always methodically attacking open ice to create opportunities for himself or room to maneuver for his linemates. He does so by changing speeds and hopping in and out of lanes, optimal tactics that are only augmented by his anticipation. 

The toolbox he possesses also makes for easy life when exiting the defensive zone, but for now, his skating ability does hold him back from leading many zone entries. I don't see it as much of an issue because it allows him to leverage one of his best skills, slipping through distracted chaos and finding himself alone in the most dangerous area of the ice:

According to the manual tracking of Mitch Brown from Elite Prospects, the rate at which Plante shot was roughly average, but he ranked in the 85th percentile of generating expected goals -- a testament to his ability to find his way to the net-front and slot for looks.

Guentzel picks up a large chunk of his goals the same way, slipping through coverage and essentially getting lost. For as great of a shooter he is, most of his shots still come from in tight. He's been doing it since he first entered the league and became a Stanley Cup champion:

Watch the following clip of Plante during three-on-three overtime and tell me he doesn't look like a smaller version of Guentzel rocking No. 27:

From the deceptive passes through defenders, to getting open at the net-front, to wheeling behind the net before popping out the other side, Plante legitimately plays like a Guentzel-lite.

Neither player over-stickhandles, either. Both of them are adept at improving the condition of the puck. That could be retrieving the puck along the wall and getting it in a spot to be moved up ice, or it could be going heel-to-heel to stay square to the opposing goaltender and keep the puck out front, like Plante did above.

It could also be a simple and quick change of attack angle:

In the same motion, Plante received the puck to his side and cut to the middle, creating further separation from the closest defender. That afforded enough time to blow a shot past the goalie.

Many aspects of Plante's game are items that will make each step to a higher level a smooth transition. His intelligence and anticipation aren't easily taught, and should his physical skills continue developing along the (somewhat) expected timeline, I don't see any reason why he can't eventually push for a spot in the NHL.

There's also the possibility he does much more than just pushes for a spot and becomes an impactful lineup piece -- just don't expect him to become one of the game's best wingers like Guentzel is right now. It isn't impossible for Plante to become a star, but as a fifth round pick, the Penguins would be ecstatic for him to just be in the lineup one day.

Regardless, the Penguins made out like bandits for snagging a player with so much upside that late in the draft. 

Plante won't be ready anywhere near soon enough to aid in the final Stanley Cup pushes of the Sidney Crosby era, but perhaps he will be among the wave of players who usher in the next generation of Penguins hockey several years down the line.

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